Gaza ceasefire is reaching a dangerous crossroads as first phase nears an end

In two weeks, on March 1, the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire will expire. By now, negotiations on phase 2 of a ceasefire should have been well under way, but that has not yet materialized. With each passing day it becomes clear that Israel is making other plans – plans that suggest a desire to return back to the bombardment of Gaza and a continuation of the more than 15-month long genocide that was paused in January.

Recent events have cast more doubt on the prospects of a lasting ceasefire and have raised questions not just about Israel’s intentions and calculations but also about the influence of the U.S. and Trump and, ultimately, how Hamas will respond.

Here’s what you need to know, and what you may expect to see in the coming weeks.

The latest: stalling and strong-arming

The Israeli army approved new “offense and defense” war plans in Gaza following concerns expressed by Israeli officials that the ceasefire in Gaza would “gradually collapse,” Israeli news site Walla reported on Wednesday. 

Israeli media quoted military sources claiming that Hamas was also making preparations for a potential return to war, assessing the Israeli army’s moves, repairing its infrastructure, and recruiting new fighters.

Last week, Israel and Hamas seemed to have reached a dead end after Israel continuously violated the terms of the ceasefire’s humanitarian agreements. Hamas announced the suspension of the release of Israeli captives until Israel allowed in tents, prefabricated mobile homes, reconstruction material, and heavy machinery for the removal of rubble into Gaza. 

But that week’s exchange of captives proceeded as planned last Saturday following guarantees from mediators that the aid would enter. Eventually, some of the material began to pass through the Egyptian side of the border and arrive at the Israeli side for security checks. According to Egyptian news reports, the mobile homes are capable of housing up to six people and are composed of two prefabricated rooms of vinyl-covered drywall, a small kitchenette, and a toilet. According to the ceasefire deal’s humanitarian protocol, Israel committed to allowing the entry of 60,000 prefabricated housing units and 200,000 tents. Although hundreds of these mobile houses have been waiting at the Egyptian side of the border for days, Israel hasn’t allowed their entry into the Strip.

The Israeli army radio said that the entry of mobile housing trailers was “a matter of time” and would begin entering Gaza before the release of the six Israeli captives on Thursday. The Times of Israel quoted an Israeli official on Tuesday saying that the housing units and heavy machinery would enter “in a controlled manner.” As for heavy machinery, the Gaza Government Media Office said that only six bulldozers had entered Gaza, far from enough to remove the over 40 million tons of rubble.

In other words, Israel has been dragging its feet in implementing its end of the ceasefire terms as part of the first phase. Despite these delays, Hamas politburo chief Khalil al-Hayeh announced in a televised speech on Monday that the movement will release the last six living Israeli captives set to be released as part of the first phase of the ceasefire. The captives will be released alongside four bodies of deceased captives, who Hamas says were killed by Israeli strikes during the war.

The Israeli government, for its part, announced that it had begun to prepare to receive the captives and the bodies, stating that it would release a number of Palestinian detainees and prisoners. According to Palestinian prisoner support sources, these include Palestinians who had been released as part of the Gilad Shalit exchange in 2011 and were subsequently rearrested by Israel after October 7.

The U.S. calling the shots?

Egyptian and Qatari mediators and the U.S. President’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, exerted pressure to manage the crisis. During the same week, Witkoff visited the region to push for the beginning of talks over the second phase of the deal, which were initially scheduled to begin on the 16th day of the ceasefire more than two weeks ago.

The second phase is aimed at reaching an agreement over the end of the war. Internally, the end of the war would mean the beginning of accountability inside Israel for the failure of October 7 and the failure in achieving the war’s main aim — destroying Hamas. An end to the war without destroying Hamas or the mass expulsion of Palestinians is considered a defeat for Israeli far-right leaders, especially Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who promised to quit the government and cause its collapse if Israel did not return to war. Despite this, U.S. envoy Steve Witkof repeated several times during his visit last week that the second phase will proceed, even though it will be “more complicated.”

Meanwhile, in Washington, U.S. President Donald Trump pushed events in the opposite direction last week when he threatened that “all hell will break out” if all Israeli captives weren’t released before last Saturday at noon. Although the exchange continued as intended, Trump stated on his Truth Social platform that Israel was free to do what it wanted with the deadline that he had set. The statement embarrassed Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in front of his far-right allies and critics, who continue to push for canceling the ceasefire and returning to war. The fact that Netanyahu and his cabinet didn’t use Trump’s apparent green light to end the ceasefire suggested that the U.S.’s true agenda was being carried out by Witkoff.

On Tuesday, Netanyahu presided over an Israeli cabinet meeting to discuss the prospect of beginning talks over the ceasefire’s second phase. Following the meeting, Netanyahu stated that Israel’s conditions for ending the war included Gaza’s total disarmament, while Israeli media reported that the government had decided to send a negotiating team to Cairo.

According to Egyptian reports, the upcoming talks in Cairo will focus on upholding and achieving the requirements of the first phase — mainly the humanitarian part of the deal, which stipulates the entry of reconstruction material and aid to the strip.

With less than a week left before the end of the first phase, which was supposed to last for 42 days, there is very little time left to achieve a deal over the second phase. This is why Israeli analysts expect Israel to propose extending the first phase of the ceasefire rather than moving on to the second phase. This would mean that Hamas would have to release more Israeli captives — hence bleeding it of the only leverage it has in the negotiations — but without securing a commitment to end the war. Needless to say, Hamas is expected to reject these terms. 

In other words, if Hamas refuses to extend the first phase, and if Israel refuses to enter the second phase, this means the ceasefire deal is at a crossroads.

However, outside of the strict confines of Israel’s calculations and Netanyahu’s political games, Donald Trump has a larger agenda in the Middle East that includes normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. This agenda would entail Israel’s economic integration into the region and large investments. These goals are incompatible with an endless war in Gaza.

Despite the public display of complete support for Israel by Trump’s administration, and despite their shared goals, there might be a difference in priorities between Netanyahu’s most important ally in Washington and himself and his domestic allies in his own government. More importantly, it is a difference in which the U.S. President has the upper hand — and the last word.