Putting an end to over a week of uncertainty and anticipation, the U.S. attacked Iran early on Sunday, targeting three Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. In the early hours of Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump said in a televised statement that “Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated,” adding that “Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must make peace now. If they do not, then future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu congratulated Trump for striking Iran, stating that the U.S. decision to join Israel’s war “will change history.” Netanyahu added that history will record that the U.S. acted to deny Iran “the most dangerous weapons.”
In Iran, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran said in a statement on Sunday that the organization would take “necessary measures, including legal action,” to preserve Iran’s rights, noting that the U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear sites was “a violation of international law.” The agency also accused the International Atomic Energy Agency of “indifference” and “complicity.”
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) later said in a statement that “peaceful Iranian nuclear technology can not be destroyed in any attack,” asserting that the U.S. has “put itself on the front lines of aggression against Iran.”
The IRGC added that it had identified the bases from which the U.S. warplanes took off to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. “The spread of U.S. military bases in the region cannot be considered a strength,” the IRGC said. “It increases the possibilities of exposing them to danger.”
On the political front, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, said in an initial statement that the U.S. had “committed a grave violation of the UN charter and international law,” adding that the U.S. strikes “will have terrible consequences.” Later in the day, Araghchi said in a press conference that the U.S. bore “full responsibility for the consequences of its actions, including Iran’s right to defend itself.” Araghchi stated that Iran reserved the right to exercise “all options” in defending itself.
Speaking from Istanbul, the Iranian Foreign Minister added that “the door of diplomacy must remain open,” but that the U.S. had “betrayed diplomacy” by attacking Iran.
Earlier in the week, on Friday, Araghchi had met European diplomats in Geneva to discuss ways of defusing the situation. European diplomats reportedly told the Foreign Minister that Iran should immediately address the U.S. directly, while Araghchi had reportedly refused any direct negotiations with the U.S. while Israeli attacks on Iran were ongoing.
Fears of regional war spiraling out of control
Over the past week, the U.S. President has continued to insinuate his willingness to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities as Iran and Israel have continued to exchange strikes ever since Israel launched its war on Iran over a week ago.
Expectations have centered around a possible U.S. strike on the Iranian nuclear facility of Fordow, known for its deep entrenchment in Iran’s mountains some 90 meters underground, making it unreachable for Israel’s weapons.
Eyes now turn to possible Iranian retaliation, especially after the IRGC made several threats to target U.S. military bases in the Middle East and close the Straits of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil consumption passes. The potential for responses and counter-responses to spiral into a larger crisis in the Middle East that impacts the world economy remains at an all-time high.
Meanwhile, Israel continues to strike Iran for the ninth day in a row, targeting the cities of Tibriz, Isfahan, Nahawand, and the capital of Tehran, while Iran continues to launch retaliatory missiles. This morning, 40 Iranian ballistic missiles struck several Israeli targets in Haifa, Tel Aviv, the greater Tel Aviv area, and the Naqab desert. According to the IRGC, the salvo included advanced Kheibar-Shekan multi-warhead ballistic missiles, marking the first time Iran has employed such advanced weapons throughout the course of the war.
I’ve got $20 that says Iran will have a crude 10 kiloton device in 18 months.
Anyone want to propose some bets?