Tehran warns, ‘There will be no velvet revolution!’

by Philip Weiss on June 13, 2009 · 61 comments

Shiva Balaghi is an editor at MERIP and, beginning in July, a fellow at the Cogut Center for Humanities at Brown University (where she will teach history). She has been compiling information on the outcome of the elections from news sources, youtube videos, facebook, and emails from colleagues in Iran. Her report:
Something’s happening here…And by now, it’s pretty clear what we are witnessing in Iran. No one can claim that the elections for President of Iran are indicative of a genuine democracy. Still, within the very narrow field of candidates that are allowed to run for office within highly regulated elections, there has been some fluidity. This allowed the IRI [Islamic Republic of Iran] to have a safety valve, allowing some modicum of participatory government. This completely rigged election that reinstated a highly unpopular president has now shown deep cleavages within the ruling classes of Iran.
Long before it could have been feasible to actually count votes, Ahmadinejad claimed a landslide victory in the June 12 presidential elections. Iranian presidential elections are determined by simple majority. Hours before the last polls closed (in LA), the official count was giving Ahmadinejad an insurmountable lead in the 60%s.
The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei issued a public statement that with nearly 80% of the electorate casting votes, the winning candidate has received 24m votes in this magnificent and beautiful presidential elections. This is a genuine celebration that our enemies are seeking to undermine; they want to steal the sweetness of this victory from our people, so our dear youth must be completely alert and all candidates must refrain from any provocative words or actions. Given that the Supreme Leaders is the final power over Iran’s judiciary and military forces, his statement essentially blocks off any appeal process and signals whose supporters will be receiving the butt end of batons.
The Ministry of Interior is charged with overseeing the election process. Last night, according to news reports, several officials of that ministry protested the way election results were being announced; however, links to these Iranian press reports were blocked on the internet. Even a cursory review of election figures released by the Ministry of Interior gives pause. There is a perfect linear relationship between votes for Ahmadinjead and those for Mousavi—who seems to have received half as many votes as Ahmadinejad in every precinct across the country. As Tehran Bureau, a clearing house for information, reports, “Statistically and mathematically, it is impossible to maintain such perfect linear relations between the votes of any two candidates in any election — and at all stages of vote counting. This is particularly true about Iran, a large country with a variety of ethnic groups who usually vote for a candidate who is ethnically one of their own.”


Mousavi’s spokesman claims he received word from the Ministry of Interior that he had won the elections and had already begun preparations for a large celebration on Sunday. His campaign offices in north Tehran were attacked and several of his campaign workers were hospitalized. He had announced a press conference at 2 pm Tehran time, but this never took place. By some reports, he met with former President Rafsanjani, who ardently opposed Ahmadinejad’s re-election, to strategize on their next steps. The award winning director Mohsen Makhmalbaf announced from Paris that he was the spokesperson for Mousavi outside of Iran. By some estimates, Mousavi gained 80% of overseas votes with Iranians voting in England, N Korea, Iraq, US, Australia, etc.
Days before the election took place, the Revolutionary Guard warned against a “velvet revolution” in Iran… This has become the code phrase used whenever scholars, artists, fashion designers, medical researchers, women’s rights activists, students, and union organizers are rounded up and thrown in prison. It signaled, more strongly than anything else, that the thousands who were peacefully protesting for Mousavi in the run up the election were going to become targets of the security forces.
Protestors are taking to the streets and their computers. Though the IRI has shut down SMS texting, a regular tool used for campaigning and election monitoring in Iran, street protestors are using their cell phones to take pictures and videos that they download. Several youtube videos show major protests in Tehran’s largest thoroughfares, including Vali Asr Street and Vanak Square. Many protestors are seen wearing green, throwing stones, setting bonfires to stop traffic. In one demonstration, streetsweepers join the crowds who chant, “Streetsweeping brothers, pick up Mahmoud and haul him off!”
Security forces are carrying out Operation Sovereignty. In photos taken at 6 pm local time in Tehran, we see hundreds of riot police in full gear throwing tear gas into the crowds with batons in hand. Other videos taken by protestors using cell phones show riot police and plain clothes thugs beating up demonstrators, including veiled women, who are heard screaming “Don’t hit me!” Some clips contain the sounds of gunfire. All the protestors are clearly unarmed, though a few are seen throwing rocks.
As darkness fell over Tehran, tens of thousands are still in the streets protesting. Reminiscent of protests that took place before the 1979 Revolution, some are chanting from their rooftops, “Death to the Dictator!” Other slogans include: “Liar, liar: where is my vote? 10 million, 20 million, we didn’t vote for the monkey!” Sounds of gunfire fill the streets, but observers say most are shooting into the air. There are unconfirmed reports of 50-100 deaths.
There have been rumors that Mousavi was detained, by Iranian rights groups say this is not the case. He issued a brief statement on his website to his supporters saying: Your will has been blocked by a strange phenomenon in the name of lies and cheating. I urge you, valued people, to be patient and I assure you that to the last of my ability, I will defend the rights of the Iranians. I call on you to help observe calm.
Ahmadinejad gave a live speech on Iranian television. He said the government belongs to the people. In a clear reference to Mousavi, who was one of the leaders of the Islamic Republic Party during the revolutionary movement, he called on those with a background in revolution to given in to people's demands, respect people's rights & to stand by him as companions of Prophet did. He said the past no longer matters and even those who once stood alongside Imam Khomeini should only be judged by what they do today. He invited all Iranians, including those outside the country, to join hands & assist him. Election is over. He called Iran's youth his children.
The IRI is quickly closing off media websites, including the BBC Persian service. Facebook, used heavily by Mousavi supporters, is being filtered.
Speaking from Ramallah, the esteemed Jimmy Carter—known for monitoring elections worldwide—diminished the importance of the Iranian presidential elections and said he hoped in his second term, Ahmadinejad would moderate his positions. Hamas welcomed Ahmadinejad’s victory, while several Israeli politicians already announced that his reelection signals a need for external forces to intervene.
The US media has been horrible in its coverage of the elections and its aftermath. NPR had more coverage of the European soccer last night and of the Stanley Cup this morning. It was evening in Tehran before Amanpour did a short piece for CNN. Even Keith Olbermann had a sleepy dude from the New America Foundation on … without even bothering to explain what his credentials as an Iran expert are. With an estimated 750k Iranians living in the US and several major academic organizations devoted to Iranian Studies, the unwillingness and inability of the US media to cover these elections properly is truly indicative of a larger problem in Irano-US relations. US press coverage has been embarrassing and shameful.

Related posts:

  1. Mohammad of Vancouver: Tehran is burning, and who is fueling the fires?
  2. Every once in a while don’t you think the U.S. had a hand in Tehran uprising so as to demonize Iran?
  3. ‘Traditional media have completely failed us’ (Iranians turn to brave citizen journalists)
  4. Israeli activist on West Bank says, I identify with Tehran protesters trying to change their country
  5. Obama, middle east messiah

{ 61 comments }

1 Shafiq June 13, 2009 at 8:14 pm

Iran's made a big mistake. This was a rigged election, no doubt about it. The press coverage in the UK has been average (CNN worldwide had extensive coverage yesterday) and I've seen a video of clashes between Moussavi supporters and the police,

2 Craig11 June 13, 2009 at 8:18 pm

This is an unfortunate development, but the evidence seems quite convincing that the Iranian election has been stolen. They haven't even really tried to conceal the fact; anyone who didn't want it to be obvious that the election had been stolen would have waited long enough for all the votes to be counted and gone through the usual procedures of certification, which take a few days.

3 thedhimmi June 13, 2009 at 8:30 pm

No kidding. It doesn't matter how nice the Iranian people are, they are ruled by fanatic dictators. They are so insecure in their power that they had to steal an election from one of their approved candidates because he wasn't radical enough. Great country.

4 Sir_Jack_Gurney June 13, 2009 at 8:39 pm

Good evening all. This is most dreadful news. Well now, I shall be on my way to high tea. Have the pleasantest of evenings, Ladies and Gentlemen.

5 Jan June 13, 2009 at 8:45 pm

Looks like George Bush and Ahmadinejad have more in common than they would like the world to know. They are both thieves who thwarted the will of the voters in their countries by stealing their elections. However, the Iranian people show far more courage and love of country than did Americans as they go into the streets and protest the "results" of the election. Americans, while bemoaning the theft of the 2000 election, sat on their hands and showed no courage or outrage as an unelected president and his criminal cabal proceeded to run roughshod over the Constitution. Hopefully, the Iranian people will not fall into deep apathy as did the American people and that they will not allow this travesty to continue unchallenged.

6 Shafiq June 13, 2009 at 8:59 pm

Liberal apathy is what got Ahmedinejad elected in the first place

7 Lysander June 13, 2009 at 9:15 pm

I have no idea what has happened in Iran. But It may very well be that Ahmadinejad's numerous social welfare policies has bought him a number of votes from the rural poor, even if not very efficient overall. Also, he is a man who made government corruption as the mainstay of his campaign. He won in 2005 with 60% of the vote against Rafsanjani who is the ultimate insider, former 2 term president and a man who made himself a billionaire through the power of the state. He is also the main backer of Mousavi today. Rafsanjani is the kind of guy who steals elections, not the kind to have them stolen from him. The corruption charge hits home amongst Iran's poor. Ahmadinejad, by contrast, lives in the same house he always had. His brother still makes a living driving a cab…no nepotism there. And on his trips to New York to speak at the UN, he brings dates and bread to minimize expenses. He has also made a point of visiting every province in Iran. The contrast between him and his opponents are obvious. In foreign policy, he can rightly argue that by confronting the West, he has forced the West to the negotiating table on Iran's terms. By contrast, Khatami's moderate policies of freezing enrichment and helping the U.S. in Afghanistan got Iran nothing but membership in the Axis of Evil. Holocaust denial is shameful. But In Iran it is likely viewed as a crime that happened in Europe, by Europeans against Europeans, not involving Iran or the Muslim world and so they are not interested in lectures about it. Also, his margin of victory was comparable to Reagan vs Mondale in 1984 and Nixon vs McGovern in 1972. Again, I don't know what happened. But there is an excellent rational for these results.

8 RowanBerkeley June 13, 2009 at 9:15 pm

It’s amazing how wrong Pepe Escobar can be sometimes: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KF12Ak02... This is a nice example of Left-Liberal Syndrome. A good litmus test for Left-Liberals is that they can bring themselves to be pro-Chavez, but they just cannot bring themselves to be pro-Ahmadinejad. And their argument is always the same, evasive one: they say it isn’t a question of whether anything he says or stands for is right or not — it’s a question of his style being counter-productively provocative.

9 Electric_Jesus June 13, 2009 at 9:25 pm

I have it on "good authority" that all of the preliminary vote results were routed through a server in Herzliya. Also, there is a global shortage of velvet due to George Costanza's compulsive hoarding. As ye sow, so shall ye reap!

10 inearnest June 13, 2009 at 9:26 pm

Haaretz says that Mousavi has been arrested. hanging chads anyone?

11 pineywoodslim June 13, 2009 at 10:09 pm

I totally agree with you. Western "liberals" need to remind themselves occasionally that just because their wishful thinking didn't come true, does not mean that reality is "flawed".. Perhaps the neocons' delusion that "we" create our own reality has been nudged leftward.

12 pineywoodslim June 13, 2009 at 10:10 pm

Lol! Good one.

13 pineywoodslim June 13, 2009 at 10:12 pm

Haaretz also cautions that there are a number of contradictory reports floating around. Good for Haaretz. I haven't checked but I doubt if any such cautionary disclaimer would be found in our media.

14 LeaNder22 June 13, 2009 at 10:20 pm

It doesn't matter how nice the Iranian people are It does

15 ThorsProvoni June 13, 2009 at 10:52 pm
16 Colin_Murray June 13, 2009 at 11:14 pm

The lack of spatial variability in the vote ratio is hilarious. Either the guys rigging the election are sub-morons or the linearity is a deliberate message from the ultra-conservatives that they will never willingly relinquish a controlling share of power. Either way they have shot themselves in the foot. This will only galvanize opposition. If they had been smart and rigged it such that Ahmadinejad won by a small margin with believable statistics, then they would have softened the backlash and long-term damage to their cause. I raise my glass to stupidity and arrogance from extremists, may it hasten their way to the dustbin of history.

17 Marion June 13, 2009 at 11:24 pm

Yes I think that people are overreacting to the Iranian elections here, acting as if they know for a fact that they were rigged …I noticed that they didn't do the same with the Lebanese elections because the pro-U.S. March 14th party won the elections even though they lost the popular majority vote… People may not like Ahmadinejad, but one thing he has proven is that he is honest and not corrupted… The fact of the matter is that the man has a lot of popular support in his country and around the Middle East region…

18 Marion June 13, 2009 at 11:27 pm

I have come to the conclusion that Ahmadinejad's no nonsense bluntness is what is needed at this point in time…He often says what many in the Middle East and beyond from the working class and poor are thinking…

19 LeaNder22 June 13, 2009 at 11:43 pm

Cassandra? Patrick Lang http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyranni... Israeli government officials rarely talk about their political warfare and propaganda operations. For that reason alone the quotations from "government officials" would be of value. Ahmadinajad's win is bad news unless you are looking forward to the day when the US goes to war with Iran. Israeli propaganda will continue to program the American public in preparation for that day. They have been doing very well in this effort so far. The media outlets and media friends are busy every day inculcating the idea that Iran is a deadly threat and must be "stopped." The effort to discredit US intelligence is also progressing nicely. The goal there is to gain general acceptance in the US of the notion that Israeli intelligence is better, smarter, more effective than US intelligence and therefore the Israeli estimate of the Iranian "menace" should govern decisions. If nothing interrupts the progress of this "informational" campaign the US will attack Iran at some not too far distant time, not tomorrow, not next week, maybe not net month, but, soon. The "end of the year" now takes on greater meaning. pl

20 Donald June 14, 2009 at 12:07 am

Those of you who think this election was fair don't seem to have read the post–not only does it sound stolen, but as others said, they are barely bothering to conceal the fact. These guys make Bush's election theft in 2000 seem subtle. None of which means we should start bombing Iran, as I'm sure the neocons will claim. We've probably got an example in this thread.

21 Dagon June 14, 2009 at 12:18 am

I agree .This morning,on NPR they where claiming that the rest of the world will consider ahmadinejad illegitimate;Dan shore said so you know.But all this is another storm in a tea cup ,or another bloddy shirt the west will wave to demonise IRAN.Because ,after all said and done the last word in Iran is by the supreme leader not the president not ahmadinejad nor musavi.

22 Dagon June 14, 2009 at 12:21 am

I bet dan Pipes is celebrating .

23 whiskey June 14, 2009 at 1:39 am

Why shouldn't we bomb Iran? Why shouldn't we in fact bomb Iran hard, fast, and totally, destroying every bit of bridge, roadwork, rail network, electrical power generation station and transmission line, sewer, water, and so on? Why shouldn't we? Iran is run by a hostile, nutcase set of thugs and lunatics who want to wipe out Israel and every last Jew on the Planet (something most Dems/Liberals would agree on) but have also bombed US: Khobar Towers, assistance in the 9/11 attack, the Millenium Bomber, and of course the 1979 Embassy Take Over. We owe Iran big for that one, alone. Nuclear proliferation and terrorist networks means out here in the real world, where hard guys with guns who kill folks for profit and fun, deterrence matters. It keeps NYC and millions of Americans alive. It means Iranians must FEAR US and so too must Pakistanis and North Koreans. Not just say, the President of Pakistan, perhaps a nice man who's orders are followed all the way out to the Presidential Palace Gate, on a good day. But the real decision makers, the tribal gunmen, the AQ/Tailban leaders, the chieftans and thugs and warlords. And the IRGC thugs, who run factories, goon squads, and much else in Iran. It's not just Nutjob we need to deter, it's his factional and tribal leaders. The Lives of NYC depends on it. So yeah, bomb away. Reduce iran to as much rubble as possible (hard to make nukes without elecricity) and make sure everyone in the region, from Pakistan to Iran (and maybe even in North Korea) is afraid of a US response. Keeps their nukes tight. Simply shoots anyone who suggests a terrorist deniable attack on the US. Hope, Rainbows, Unicorns, and "Change" ain't gonna get it done. The hard boys laugh and make plans to nuke NYC (because whoever pulls it off vaults right into the top job, duh, money/power/women, that's how it works). They'll simply shoot out of hand anyone who suggests it they figure THEY will get it in the neck.

24 Marion June 14, 2009 at 1:47 am

Islamically it is Haram (forbidden) to rig elections, so I am not buying into these allegations that the elections were rigged at this time until there is clear proofs. It appears to me like the so-called progressive left is not much different than the conservative right when it comes to demonizing jumping to conclusions…

25 _Sarah_ June 14, 2009 at 2:27 am

The Iranians have an excellent reason to be pissed off with the US. We crushed their fledgling democracy and installed a brutal dictator in its place. The US and Israel are guilty of far worse things than what you have accused Iran of doing there in your post. We (the US and Israel) are the real world class criminals, and this push to obliterate Iran is only a small (but incredibly stupid) part of the total scope of our crimes. There is no evidence whatever that the Iranians want to kill Jews. None whatever.

26 stevieb June 14, 2009 at 2:36 am

There isn't any compelling evidence of fraud – alot of people speculating on issues they really don't understand (some idiotically drawing comparisons to Bush's election which says it all really) – the left being co-opted in the demonization game isn't surprising but you'd think some of them would know better. A U.S sponsored opposition making claims of voter fraud (and claiming victory before the votes were in)? And then 'rioting' in the streets for western camera crews? Yawwn. Yawwwn.

27 kylebisme June 14, 2009 at 2:41 am

"Iran is run by a hostile, nutcase…" Hostile? Nutcase? Check a mirror. "…Khobar Towers, assistance in the 9/11 attack, the Millenium Bomber…" Khobar Towers maybe, but I'm at a complete loss as how you are trying to pin those other two on Iran. "…hard guys with guns…" Oh, it seems you might be one of those types of conservatives, which would explain a lot.

28 stevieb June 14, 2009 at 2:45 am

And that's your proof of vote rigging, Colin?

29 stevieb June 14, 2009 at 2:58 am

There isn't any compelling evidence of fraud – alot of people speculating on issues they really don't understand (some idiotically drawing comparisons to Bush's election which says it all really) – the left being co-opted in the demonization game isn't surprising but you'd think some of them would know better.

30 _Sarah_ June 14, 2009 at 2:59 am

They used 9/11 to fool the US voters into supporting the war against Iraq, even though there was no connection at all, and now the very same people are once again using 9/11, this time to try to fool us into supporting a war against Iran. Hopefully the US voters have learned by now that these people should never be listened to under any circumstances.

31 Gene June 14, 2009 at 3:13 am

There isn't any compelling evidence of fraud … Then, this needs to be explained:

The leader just sent a congratulation message to the winning candidate, stating his number of votes and thanking the management of the election. He just closed the discussion! and called all those protesting, agents of enemies!! This is exactly against the constitution. The final vote is not yet announced and there are three days for clarification of disputes. This is just outrageous! – Link

32 Sean2009 June 14, 2009 at 5:47 am

I wouldn't trust the US media on anything concerning Iran (or much of anything else, for that matter). Unfortunately due to the barrage of propaganda we are exposed to regarding Iran it will be difficult to determine if the election was rigged or not, and if the videos of protests are real or from previous or unrelated events. One thing that is certain is that even if the election was legit, US and Israel and their collaborators in the media are almost certain to declare them otherwise to further their goal of a war with Iran, so it is probably best to take these reports with a lot of skepticism until verified by more objective sources.

33 Duscany June 14, 2009 at 6:08 am

Why shouldn't we bomb Iran? Well the biggest reason is that Iran is no danger to us and hasn't attacked us. Yeah, they took over our embassy 30 years ago. That's what happens when you depose a country's leaders and install the Shah. I also wouldn't be surprised to hear that Iran's leaders hate the Jews. But I suspect that Israel's constant threats to bomb Iran for the last eight years might have something to do with it. As for Iran having anything to do with the World Trade Center attack, I thought Bush and Cheney always maintained the power behind the plot was Saddam Hussein. And now you're saying it was Iran after all?

34 AnaSanchez June 14, 2009 at 6:11 am

There is no evidence that Iran or "most Dems/Liberals" want to kill the Jews. There is evidence that Zionists, Jewish and otherwise, want to kill Palestinians, Lebanese, Iraqis, Afghans, Iranians and want Americans killed in the process. As Mooser would say, "Get off the Ziocaine!

35 RowanBerkeley June 14, 2009 at 6:43 am

It's amusing how many papers are now claiming that canny Israel wanted Ahmadinejad to win all along, because he is so counter-productively provocative and repellent — whereas the stupid USA, never able to grasp either facts or tactics, spent a fortune trying to promote the boring and deceptively 'moderate' Mousavi!

36 Yoni C June 14, 2009 at 6:46 am

are you joking? its also Haram to strap yourselves w/ bombs and blow up kids

37 Yoni C June 14, 2009 at 6:47 am

Sarah that was 50 years ago?

38 RowanBerkeley June 14, 2009 at 6:48 am

I have substituted 'Israel' for "Iran' throughout this demented piece by the appropriately named 'whiskey': Why shouldn't we bomb Israel? Why shouldn't we in fact bomb Israel hard, fast, and totally, destroying every bit of bridge, roadwork, rail network, electrical power generation station and transmission line, sewer, water, and so on? Why shouldn't we? Israel is run by a hostile, nutcase set of thugs and lunatics who want to wipe out Iran and every last Muslim on the Planet (something most Dems/Liberals would agree on) but have also bombed US: Khobar Towers, assistance in the 9/11 attack, the Millenium Bomber, and of course the 1979 Embassy Take Over. We owe Israel big for that one, alone. Nuclear proliferation and terrorist networks means out here in the real world, where hard guys with guns who kill folks for profit and fun, deterrence matters. It keeps NYC and millions of Americans alive. It means Israelis must FEAR US and so too must Pakistanis and North Koreans. Not just say, the President of Pakistan, perhaps a nice man who's orders are followed all the way out to the Presidential Palace Gate, on a good day. But the real decision makers, the tribal gunmen, the AQ/Tailban leaders, the chieftans and thugs and warlords. And the Likud thugs, who run factories, goon squads, and much else in Israel. It's not just Yahoo we need to deter, it's his factional and tribal leaders. The Lives of NYC depends on it. So yeah, bomb away. Reduce Israel to as much rubble as possible (hard to make nukes without elecricity) and make sure everyone in the region, from Pakistan to Iran (and maybe even in North Korea) is afraid of a US response. Keeps their nukes tight. Simply shoots anyone who suggests a terrorist deniable attack on the US. Hope, Rainbows, Unicorns, and "Change" ain't gonna get it done. The hard boys laugh and make plans to nuke NYC (because whoever pulls it off vaults right into the top job, duh, money/power/women, that's how it works). They'll simply shoot out of hand anyone who suggests it they figure THEY will get it in the neck.

39 Strahl June 14, 2009 at 7:32 am

Great Yoni, please tell that to all the Jewish Zionist Holocaust hucksters and exploiters. Tell them the Holocaust was over 60 years ago. Tell them to stop trying to erase the Palestinians. Tell them to stop colonizing the rest of Historic Palestine in the name of past Jewish suffering.

40 stevieb June 14, 2009 at 10:35 am

I wouldn't call that 'compelling' at all…

41 LeaNder22 June 14, 2009 at 11:24 am

What the hell creates this mindset? The lust for power? Yes, really good idea. Create a bit more hate in the Arab and Persian world. Destroy everything. IDF can show the way. Bomb them all back to the stone age, and then point fingers at them calling them anti-modernization forces. Carefully hide your larger geo-political aims. Make sure another 911 is in the planning, what is needed is a renewed danger scenario. Any chance to channel money in the right direction? Human life doesn't matter. Will is the new ethic, yes we can: Nuke them into surrender. But beware, you gotta look for a new field of strong support this may bring the US down: From Sic Semper Tyrannis keep the larger scenario in mind: Babak Wreckage in both countries. The US can not stand another big war economically. We are a borrowing, creditor country. Further massive war caused indebtedness will simply be more "living beyond our means." You can only borrow so much money before the household finances collapse. we are close now, having exported our manufacturing base. We are mere consumers, living on credit. Iran? You have not seen destruction of this kind. pl Posted by: Patrick Lang | 13 June 2009 at 05:08 PM **************************************************************** What exactly is going on?: Good analysis Re Iranian elections, there almost surely was a lot of 'putting the thumb on the scales' but the assumption that the results "prove" electoral fraud is a stretch (so far), and most analyses are rather unsupported by reason or fact (e.g. see link below) As to your point that Ahmedinajad's re-election is Natanyahu's wet dream and that they are beating the drums of war, you are spot on… But how does one resist? http://tinyurl.com/me874r Posted by: Tosk59 | 13 June 2009 at 07:49 PM

42 LeaNder22 June 14, 2009 at 11:46 am

I think at this point in time, the news coming in are far too contradictory for a sound assessment. Besides it's not about whom we would like to see elected, but what the majority of Iranians think. The constant drumbeat against them starting with the axis of evil surely must have an effect. I don't know how I would react under these conditions. And just as the neocon's controlled the US discourse and the media shouldn't we expect Amadinejad to have the same support? So people are mainly familiar with his tale: Bring' em on. The constant drumbeat and force of the neocon mindset must necessarily create strong counter forces, that's not even difficult to understand. And don't forget the Americans reelected Bush43 too.

43 LeaNder22 June 14, 2009 at 12:10 pm

also bombed US: Khobar Towers, assistance in the 9/11 attack, the Millenium Bomber, and of course the 1979 Embassy Take Over. Khobar Towers The sources given in Wikipedia concerning Iranian money supporting the attack come from the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, followed by a speculation in the United States District Court (Dec, 2006!). Could the articles have influenced it. And who was the judge? This "Memorandum Opinion" is no longer online. What was the context? assistance in the 9/11 attacks That sounds more familiar. So the two arch enemies Iraq and Iran both sponsored Al Quaeda. Now that is a really interesting scenario. Millenium Bomber http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmed_Ressam http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmed_Ressam If you have to add an Iranian angle, you should go to Wikipedia and add them. So far there is nothing. Well, so that reduces your danger scenario essentially to the Embassy take over, doesn't it? How about innocent till proven guilty?

44 Nth Republic June 14, 2009 at 12:29 pm

I'll begin by saying that I have an enormous respect and affinity for the people of Iran, the spirit of the Islamic Revolution, and the complexity with which the Islamic Republic constructed its governmental model and refines its institutions. By comparison to some of the United States' allies in the region (see: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, et cetera), Iran is a shining beacon of democracy. That said, I'll quote Juan Cole in saying that "as a first reaction, this post-election situation looks to me like a crime scene." There are simply too many discrepancies, too many statistical impossibilities, and too many unlikely scenarios one must accept as having occurred for these election results not to be overly suspicious. The first alarm bells were ringing at Ahmadinejad's large win margin, a gap which would make him, as the New York Times' Nicholas Kristof says, Iran's "most popular president ever." Beyond that, the ideas that Ahmadinejad beat out Mousavi in the Azerbaijan province and in every city, and that Karoubi came in behind Rezai and lost in his native Lorestan, are completely implausible to me. I'm not going to list every discrepancy here, though. There are plenty of analyses out there written by people far more informed than I and who have greater clarity in these matters, but I'll just offer one for now in addition to Juan Cole's (linked above) — and it's by no means perfect, as everyone talking about this seems to have some kind of agenda — Gary Sick – Iran's Political Coup. Quick addendum: I'm definitely not saying my mind is made up; as others have said, it's going to be hard to get solid, believable information from anyone in this situation. I'm just saying I'm extremely suspicious.

45 Marion June 14, 2009 at 1:43 pm

True it is Haram, but when did Iranian leaders such as Sayed Khameini or Ahmadinejad become guilty of doing such in your mind? Sayed Khameini has claimed that nuclear weapons are Haram, yet they continue to be accused by the West of developing them, even though Iran does not have a reputation of being a military aggressor country and there is no evidence to back up these allegations….Ahmadinejad continues to to be accused by the West of claiming to want to wipe Israel off the map when he actually just repeated what the late Imam Khomeini said that the Zionist regime will vanish from the pages of time..He just said what many people believe because of the fact that Zionism a destructive racist ideology that will eventually self destruct….

46 Marion June 14, 2009 at 1:48 pm

Just goes to show that this ongoing Zionist oriented "informational" campaign that appears to have even infected the so-called progressive Left must be countered tooth and nail….

47 Marion June 14, 2009 at 1:57 pm

"I also wouldn't be surprised to hear that Iran's leaders hate the Jews. But I suspect that Israel's constant threats to bomb Iran for the last eight years might have something to do with it."–Duscany If Iran's leaders hate Jews because of Israel's ongoing threats, why are there still Jews living in Iran and being represented in the Iranian Parliament with a member even though they are a minority?

48 Marion June 14, 2009 at 2:04 pm

If it was a clear majority win, so why would it be necessary for the Iranian leader to take three days for clarification of disputes? Who are they clarifying for the sake of, those like you from the West who are upset that Ahmadinejad won, meaning the people of Iran have largely supported him despite Zionist oriented Western attempts at trying to undermine him?

49 Marion June 14, 2009 at 2:09 pm

Exactly, .jumping to irrational conclusions makes our Zionist oriented media look stupid and those who choose to blindly trust the media look stupid…

50 oMan June 14, 2009 at 2:19 pm

Totalitarian states can't change. Iran will slide toward more obvious North Korean model of threats and oppression. Israel will probably act, to no particular effect. Even if they hit every nuke asset, Iran will just rebuild with its populace now furiously aligned against Israel and, because they see it as a proxy for all of us, against the West. The cycle will go on, and worsen, until the mullahs are gone. The cost will be very high. Are you ready for $500/barrel oil?

51 Citizen June 14, 2009 at 2:43 pm

Gotta agree with LeaNder here. The state is not the people, and it was not, even in NAZI Germany. Let's hope all Arabs do not think the USA government is the American people.

52 RowanBerkeley June 14, 2009 at 2:44 pm

Yes — the article blithely says, "This completely rigged election," but there's no evidence of that at all. Juan Cole, for instance, just waffles around with circumstantial gueswork of his own and says he wished he knew more.

53 RowanBerkeley June 14, 2009 at 2:46 pm

"Those of you who think this election was fair don't seem to have read the post." I've read it twice, and there is no concrete evidence in it (or anywhere else) that the election was rigged.

54 Marion June 14, 2009 at 2:50 pm

Western Primer on elections in developing countries Some Western principles in assessing elections in developing countries: 1) When the favored candidates win, the elections are free and fair. And when they lose, elections are certainly unfree and stolen. 2) Violent protests against elections that produce winners favored by the west, are to be strictly condemned and protesters are to be called terrorists, hooligans and mobs (can you imagine if Lebanese opposition supporters were to engage in violent protests against the election results in Lebanon), while violent protests against enemies of the US when they win elections (like in Moldova) are to be admired (and the protesters in those cases are called "democracy activists". 3) It is not against free elections to have Western governments interfere in elections and in funding candidates through Western groups for the promotion of democracy. 4) Candidates (or even dictators) who serve Western interests are automatically labeled as "reform candidates" (even the Saudi tyrant is referred to as "reform-minded"), while candidates who oppose Western economic and political interests are to be labeled enemies of reform. 5) Candidates who are not strident in their language about Israel are always favored. 6) Western observers of elections are always on hand to declare an election unfair and rigged if the favored candidates lose. 7) The corruption of pro-US candidates (like the March 14 bunch) is preferred to the non-corruption of, say, Mugabe. 8) The democratic credentials of dictators immediately improve if they change their policies toward the US and if they express willingness to serve US economic and political interests. 9) Countries where dictators do a good job in serving US economic and political interests need not hold elections. 10) If favored candidates can't guarantee electoral victory (like the PA tool, Abu Mazen whose term has expired months ago), they don't need to hold elections and will be treated as if they won an election anyway. 11) It is just not logical to assume that people in developing countries can freely ever decide to make choices that are not consistent with political and economic interests of the US. 12) Elections that are held under American and Israeli occupations are free and fair if the preferred candidates win. Posted by As'ad at 8:55 PM http://angryarab.blogspot.com/2009/06/western-pri...

55 Citizen June 14, 2009 at 2:54 pm

The same can be said, and it is true, regarding Hamas, which has done much more for poor Palestinians, and has been less corrupt than its Palestinian puppet competitor. Even Hitler had that going for him initially. The limousine liberal elites never learn until it is too late that the masses, the popular opinion, rises or falls with facts on their ground. The same pattern occurs over and over again. Right wing dictatorships succeed because they initially deliver beyond hypocrisy, and only later activate things worse for the masses in the end than the liberals allow hypocritically before then.

56 Citizen June 14, 2009 at 3:03 pm

I gotta say, I agree with LeaNder here (again).

57 Citizen June 14, 2009 at 3:07 pm

Oh yeah, and who cares, and what justification is it, that Jews ruled the area for a time thousands of years ago? People are still alive who remember the cruel proxy Shah.

58 Citizen June 14, 2009 at 3:11 pm

We need more than hope–contact your congressional reps every chance you get to stop this drum beating for war; in many locals across the US, the newspaper of record is still misquoting Iran's reelected president (erase Israel rather than the zionist regime will vanish as did the USSR), in my case, the St Petersburg Times. Nobody ever calls them on it, or they don't print the call. Sammo, sammo, the cable TV news channels.

59 Citizen June 14, 2009 at 3:21 pm

Americans suffered the oil price increase and waiting lines apropos the 73 Israeli war; and they've never had a clue–or course they will be ready for $500 barrel oil in the same sense. When it happens this time around, their Fourth Estate will again give them no causation relection, and they will pay again, and for as long, once again. Always good to keep them ignorant down on the farm, so to say. That's your 3 branches of government and the Fourth Estate doing what it does best, keeping itself in power and rich at the expenses of, and in the name of "we the people."

60 Citizen June 14, 2009 at 3:22 pm

relection-reflection

61 David Crisp June 14, 2009 at 5:13 pm

I can't speak to what NPR did over the weekend, but on Thursday it had thorough, extensive coverage of the election just about all day long. Don't paint with too broad a brush.

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