Obama and Netanyahu, September 21, 2011. (Photo: Kevin Lamarque/ Reuters)
Is our presidential election in November now being played by the Israelis and Netanyahu, who has called for Israeli elections in September? Well of course. But how is the question.
Here is Akiva Eldar in Haaretz predicting that Netanyahu will win, with Obama’s help. Obama will be compelled to say over and over in the next few months that he stands by Israel and Netanyahu is a man of peace. Because Israelis actually want someone who will resolve the troubles. And if Obama does anything to question that narrative and undermine Netanyahu, the Israel lobby will go after Obama, as they went after Ehud Olmert and knocked him out of office.
And so, according to Eldar, Obama and Netanyahu will get reelected at the price of any movement on the alleged peace process.
According to surveys, if the public brings the right wing back into power, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not be given free rein to forcibly destroy the Iranian nuclear program. He will however receive support for the other plan that Diskin hinted at – the plan to destroy Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas politically and to bury the two-state solution….
According to the surveys, the vast majority of the public that will vote in September believes Netanyahu is desperately interested in renewing the peace talks and that Abbas is the refusenik….
Netanyahu will win the elections in September because until November Obama will continue to recite what his election advisers write for him about America’s commitment to Israel’s security. There won’t be a word about the Israeli government’s violation of its commitment to present its position on the subject of borders and security. The settlements have also disappeared from Obama’s speeches. Someone must surely have reminded him what the Jewish voters did to George Bush Snr., who on the eve of the 1992 elections dared to make economic aid to Israel conditional on freezing construction on the settlements.
It would be nice if we could have this conversation in the American press. The failure to have it out here will only make Eldar right.
The alternative scenario is my rosy-lens scenario that David Remnick can take down the Netanyahu prime ministership. That he and Peter Beinart, whose book is aimed at Netanyahu, arouse liberal elite opinion, with the result that our press starts to bash Israeli intransigence on the peace process, and Obama does so too, and this creates huge pressure in the Israeli system. Doubtful, but possible. Everything changes. Krugman is upset, so is Rick Perlstein– all the Jewish journalists who avoided this issue and deferred to neoconservatives/rightwing Zionists are now anguished about the death of the two-state solution. There could be an Arab Spring in our media. Hey, Sarkozy is gone. Who will be next?
the whole ‘peace process’ is a dead issue for most israeli society and not really part of this election, according to an israeli i am in contact with.
just nothing, that’s what it counts for. one would think the inflammatory stuff going on in the court surrounding the recent retroactive legalization of the outposts and the refusal to dismantle ulpana even after the court order would be an issue. it isn’t.
we have to keep making it an issue and push it over and over and over so it becomes part of the regular discourse whenever israel is discussed. we have to.
great choice on graphic.
RE: “Obama will be compelled to say over and over in the next few months that he stands by Israel and Netanyahu is a man of peace…And if Obama does anything to question that narrative and undermine Netanyahu, the Israel lobby will go after Obama” ~ Weiss
FOR INSTANCE, SEE: Barre Seid Plausibly Denies Funding ‘Obsession,’ All the While Doing Precisely That, by Richard Silverstein, Tikun Olam, 01/26/12
ENTIRE ARTICLE – http://www.richardsilverstein.com/tikun_olam/2010/11/17/how-barre-seid-can-deny-funding-obsession-and-still-do-so-anyway/
P.S. For 2012 substitute “Iranium” for “Obsession” ! ! !
Why do you think that Israeli voters decide who to vote on based on any American figures, presidential or otherwise? And do you seriously think large numbers of American voters decide who to vote for based on what Israelis tell them?
I always thought the main issue for American voters is the economy, certainly in an election year such as this one; and the issues for Israelis are Israeli issues, not American ones. The fact that Israel’s economy sailed unscathed through the world’s economic crises is surely vastly more important to Israeli voters than anything Peter Beinart might have to say, no? Especially as almost no Israelis beyond the very small readership of Haaretz have ever even heard of Beinart, and Remnick or Perlman: who are they?
Finally, you seem to assume that the liberal elite in New York sees the situation in Israel with clearer eyes than the Israelis themselves. This is unlikely, but even were it true, it only reinforces the certainty that the Israelis (the ones who can vote for or against Netanyahu) will do so according to how they understand the world, not the way the outsiders see it.
I expect the same goes for American voters. They vote according to what they see and understand, not what outsiders tell them.
/. There could be an Arab Spring in our media. Hey, Sarkozy is gone. Who will be next?/
The lobby threw out Olmert the lobby will throw out Obama
i wonder if the lobby can throw out Phillip Weiss ?
from eldar:
what does he mean by maneuvers like this ? that tape wasn’t released until 10 years later so israelis didn’t even know he hijacked oslo.
not so sure he’s moved any americans who were not already on his side. unless he’s eluding to the idea obama is on ‘his side’. maybe he’s not paid a political price because he’s kowtowed to the settlers time and again and placed likud in bed with shas and israel ‘moderates’ (as if apartheid societies could be construed as moderate) don’t seen too alarmed about it, in droves or anything.
i will have to read this article over a few times. not sure if i agree with some of these premises.