Back in January, reports came out that the US was planning a massive joint military exercise with Israel that was viewed as a possible precursor to an attack on Iran. Later that month, the exercise was called off, although it was not exactly clear why. The exercise was rescheduled to take place in October, just weeks before the presidential election, but new reports indicate it will be drastically scaled down. Time magazine reports:
Seven months ago, Israel and the United States postponed a massive joint military exercise that was originally set to go forward just as concerns were brimming that Israel would launch a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The exercise was rescheduled for late October, and appears likely to go forward on the cusp of the U.S. presidential election. But it won’t be nearly the same exercise. Well-placed sources in both countries have told TIME that Washington has greatly reduced the scale of U.S. participation, slashing by more than two-thirds the number of American troops going to Israel and reducing both the number and potency of missile interception systems at the core of the joint exercise.
“Basically what the Americans are saying is, ‘We don’t trust you,’” a senior Israeli military official tells TIME.
The reductions are striking. Instead of the approximately 5,000 U.S. troops originally trumpeted for Austere Challenge 12, as the annual exercise is called, the Pentagon will send only 1,500 service members, and perhaps as few as 1,200. Patriot anti-missile systems will arrive in Israel as planned, but the crews to operate them will not. Instead of two Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense warships being dispatched to Israeli waters, the new plan is to send one, though even the remaining vessel is listed as a “maybe,” according to officials in both militaries.
Time‘s Karl Vick and Aaron J. Klein interpret the move as the Obama administration pumping the breaks on an attack on Iran, but it also provides insight into the the current state of US/Israeli relations. Vick and Klein quote Efraim Inbar, who gloated to Helena Cobban that Israel would be able to “play” the Americans, saying neither the US or Israel trust each other:
In the current political context, the U.S. logic is transparent, says Israeli analyst Efraim Inbar. “I think they don’t want to insinuate that they are preparing something together with the Israelis against Iran – that’s the message,” says Inbar, director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University. “Trust? We don’t trust them. They don’t trust us. All these liberal notions! Even a liberal president like Obama knows better.”
Go ahead, ‘play us’. Sooner or later you will lose….it all. Faster please.
Dempsey: ‘I Don’t Want to Be Complicit’ in Israeli Strike on Iran
The top US general warned against an Israeli attack on Iran, which would be counterproductive and dangerous
by John Glaser, August 30, 2012
The United States will not be ‘complicit’ in an Israeli military strike on Iran, America’s top military general warned on Thursday, adding that such an attack would not only fail to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, but could prompt Iran to reconstitute its weapons programs.
The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staffs General Martin Dempsey made the comments on Thursday in London, pushing back against US and Israeli warmongers who have advocated for a preemptive military strike on Iran for a nuclear weapons program it doesn’t even have.
He warned that an attack by Israel would “clearly delay but probably not destroy Iran’s nuclear program.” This falls in line with previous analysis by the Obama administration and experts that Iran’s nuclear enrichment is too redundant to be completely destroyed by Israeli attacks and that such a move may encourage the Iranians to actually start making weapons to serve as a deterrent for further strikes.
For now, Dempsey said, whether Iran even wants nuclear weapons is inconclusive. But he did warn that diplomatic and economic pressure on Iran “could be undone if [Iran] was attacked prematurely.”
Previous attempts at cooling the fiery war rhetoric coming from the Israeli leadership and some warmongers in Washington have not sunk in. But Dempsey’s warnings about the counterproductive and dangerous implications of a needless war on Iran could help lessen the chances of an Israeli attack in the near-term
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/terrorism-security/2012/0831/Dempsey-warns-Israel-that-a-unilateral-strike-wouldn-t-end-Iran-s-nuclear-program
excerpt..
“I don’t want to be complicit if they [Israel] choose to do it,” he added.
The New York Times reports that the US has reminded Israeli officials repeatedly that, on its own, Israel lacks the military capability to destroy the key nuclear site at Fordow, which is underground and heavily reinforced. The US has the capability, but wants to give “diplomacy, sanctions, and sabotage” more time.
But yesterday’s IAEA report “validated” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s stance that diplomacy and sanctions have failed to slow Iran’s nuclear wok, and may even be forcing it to speed up, according to the Times.
But the agency’s report has also put Israel in a corner, documenting that Iran is close to crossing what Israel has long said is its red line: the capability to produce nuclear weapons in a location invulnerable to Israeli attack.
… Officials and experts here say the conclusions may force Israel to strike Iran or concede it is not prepared to act on its own.
Whether that ultimately leads to a change in strategy – or a unilateral attack – is something that even Israel’s inner circle cannot yet agree on, despite what seems to be a consensus that Iran’s program may soon be beyond the reach of Israel’s military capability.
“It leaves us at this dead end,” said a senior government official here, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he is involved in the decision-making process. “The more time elapses with no change on the ground in terms of Iranian policies, the more it becomes a zero-sum game.”
Singling out the US, Israeli Vice Prime Minister Moshe Yaalon said today that comments from world powers have led Iran to believe that it does not face a true risk of a military strike, Reuters reports.
White House Press Secretary Jay Carney told reporters yesterday when asked about the IAEA report that the US has been firm that Iran has a limited amount of time to halt further nuclear work, Haaretz reports.
“The president has made clear frequently that he is determined to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon,” Mr. Carney said. “So long as the Iranian regime refuses to comply with its international obligations, the United States, with its allies, will continue to take actions to further isolate and penalize Iran and the regime.”
Dov Zakheim, (Israel Firster) a former defense department official in the Bush administration, writes in Foreign Policy that the Obama administration’s only goal regarding Iran right now is “delaying anything from happening in the Middle East before Election Day.”
‘’As for the impasse with Iran, here too, the key to achieving American objectives is the credibility of American pronouncements. There is more than Washington can do as it attempts win the trust of Israel’s key decision makers on any Israeli attack…. Supplying missile defense systems is simply not enough for a nation that cannot tolerate even the most minimal probability that a nuclear weapon could penetrate those defenses.
Washington’s willingness to look the other way [as other countries flout sanctions on Iran] further intensifies Israeli fears that, at the end of the day, Iran will develop a nuclear capability while America and the West wring their hands.’’
israel – you overplayed your hand – and FINALLY the U.S. swats it away … for this one moment it will be U.S. interests that dictate, not the whims of the current crop of deranged israeli leaders
Geez why is it that Israel does not trust the U.S. Helped create their country have allowed them to expand illegal settlements while undermining U.S. national security, last President to demand that they open up their nuclear weapons sites was President Kennedy, send them billions to spend on what ever they like, blocked sending in international observers from the UN. Now the U.S. may not be willing to follow them off the cliff to disaster by supporting a pre-emptive attack on Iran based on unsubstantiated claims. I don’t know sounds like the Obama administration is being a damned good friend. Trying to take the keys away from a power crazed drunk driver.
helena’s interview with Inbar is just amazing/incredible! i urge everyone to open that link.
great post adam.
Even 1500 US military personnel in Israel in late October gives Israel an ideal opportunity to stage an ‘Iranian attack’ — but on American personnel this time. Preferably the victims will include some girls.
Israel will then retaliate — for us, of course. Ideally, it’s be about ten days before the election. Obama will be over a barrel. He’ll at least make approving noises.