The U.S.-Israeli war of choice on Iran continues to be enormously unpopular in the United States. The latest polling shows a consistent majority of around 60% of Americans opposing the war.
Yet U.S. President Donald Trump continues to threaten to resume bombing Iran, and many people believe he is going to go through with it, even though there are, once again, reports that there may be real potential for a viable deal. Why would Trump then consider going back to full-scale war, knowing what it is costing him politically?
It’s too easy to simply write off the possibility of finding a deal based on the past, where Trump and Israel have launched attacks on Iran at moments when it seemed diplomacy was working. There are more reasons for Trump to genuinely pursue a deal now than there were in February or last June.
For one, Trump is reluctant to re-enter a full-scale war, knowing what it would cost the global economy, which is a much higher price than what we have already paid. Iran will certainly respond with more devastating attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and may well be planning to strike beyond that, possibly in Europe.
Trump closely observes financial trends, and while some corporate interests, such as global oil companies and defense contractors, have profited from the war, others, such as manufacturing and real estate, have suffered significant losses.
Trump’s personal interests can vary. His investments in stocks (which he can manipulate to his profit thanks to his position as president) have benefited from war, but many of his other investments, in real estate and projects in the Persian Gulf region itself, have suffered. He and many of his cronies are distinctly nervous about the bond market’s recent rate hikes.
That would seem to dictate that the political winds should push him away from war, and they have. But the pressures to return to war are mounting quickly. Israel is engaged in an all-out push to reenlist the U.S. in fighting, Iran is indicating its window for making a deal might be closing, and countries around the world are showing an increased urgency to open the Strait of Hormuz. Trump’s sudden interest in cutting a deal with Iran may indicate he is trying to avoid returning to all-out war before these pressures become overwhelming.
Israeli panic
Israel is pushing Trump hard to restart the war. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing an election in a few months, and he is trailing in the polls by a significant margin. Among several key factors harming him is the perception in Israel that he has failed to turn Israeli military successes into tangible political or diplomatic gains for Israel. Despite this, the Israeli Jewish public still supports the wars, leading Netanyahu to an ever more desperate effort to continue them.
Hezbollah remains a more potent adversary than was previously thought, and Iran has not only survived but has, thus far, managed to assert a new regional influence, particularly over their control of the Strait of Hormuz. It is not lost on Israelis that Netanyahu, for all his brutality in Gaza, has also failed to disarm Hamas.
Netanyahu still believes Iran is the key to both Lebanon and Gaza, as does much of the Israeli public. Israelis want Trump to give them back the war he said he was going to win so decisively. Netanyahu needs another chance to argue that he has brought unprecedented “security” to Israel or is about to do so by bringing the Islamic Republic of Iran, which he has painted as the source of all threats to Israel, to its knees.
Those hopes, obviously, necessitate an American resumption of its full-scale war, and at an even more vicious pace. Israel cannot defeat Iran on its own. So Netanyahu is burning every resource he can find to try to push Trump back in. Eventually, if no deal is reached, he is likely to succeed.
Iran’s hardening nuclear stance
On Thursday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive stating that Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium may not be sent to another country as part of a deal with the United States.
This declaration certainly complicated matters for Trump, but it also reflects an attempt to press him for a deal soon.
Iran wants a phased agreement with the U.S. that can be guaranteed by the UN Security Council or another world power with enough clout to ensure that the United States is fully incentivized to refrain from attacking Iran again. This declaration is a step toward that goal.
The wording is important. Khamenei did not say Iran would keep its highly enriched uranium, only that it would not give it away. That leaves other options open, such as diluting it. That can be done under close supervision by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), so other countries can be assured that it was done and that all of Iran’s highly enriched uranium was included.
That would mean Iran could enrich it again, but would not be able to do so as long as whatever agreement is reached was in place, because the IAEA would be monitoring it.
That option will not be good enough for Israel, and that’s intentional. Khamenei knows the option of dilution has been discussed with the Americans before, and they did not rule it out, just as he knows the Israelis will not be satisfied unless every bit of uranium and every centrifuge in Iran is removed or destroyed.
Khamenei also knows that if Trump wants to make a deal, he can and will tell the Israelis to accept it. That’s a wedge between Washington and Tel Aviv he certainly wants to drive as deeply as he can.
Still, Khamenei’s very public declaration also shows that he is concerned about the growing pressure on Trump to restart the war. He knows that, eventually, if no deal is reached, Trump will bow to that pressure. This declaration is meant to spur Washington to cut a deal sooner, and it seems to have been very effective.
Concern over Strait of Hormuz
Most countries oppose Iran charging a toll for passage through the Strait. But for Asian countries, this concern is secondary to ensuring a system in place that guarantees unobstructed passage through the Strait.
Bahrain is trying to get a UN Security Council Resolution passed that would address this question. China and Russia already vetoed one resolution that would have been a precursor for calling for international action, possibly including force, to open the Strait and prevent Iran from profiting from its position there. A new, less forceful proposal is now being put forward, and it is unclear whether China and Russia will be satisfied.
Still, while China does not want to see more warfare in the Strait, it also does not want to see a toll system set up there. Yet, given that both China and South Korea have apparently been willing to pay Iran to pass through the Strait this week, it seems clear they are willing to bend on this point.
Iran and Oman have also been discussing a system of payment for passage. One notion is that they would not charge a toll but rather a “management fee” for their efforts to maintain the Strait’s environmental health and ensure clear and safe passage.
It would still be a toll, but it wouldn’t be called a toll. That might be enough for China, South Korea, and other Asian states that have been hit the hardest by the Strait’s closure. It might also be good enough for Trump, who would undoubtedly sell it as his having prevented Iran from charging a toll in the Strait.
As time goes on, Iran will have more leverage as the global economic crisis worsens. While Gulf states are working to create alternatives to shipping through the Strait, such solutions are costly and will require years to fully implement.
Trump claims he can wait, but rising costs, strain on major industries, and the reflection of these realities in global financial markets are pressing on him every day, politically and personally. He needs to get traffic flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again.
Trump’s tarnished image
While opponents of Donald Trump have always viewed him with contempt and ridicule, the perception of him as a fool is spreading.
The story that broke this week about the reported plan to install, of all people, hardline former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmedinejad as the new Iranian leader brought a tidal wave of ridicule and mockery from a wide range of sectors, both pro- and anti-war.
As I explained elsewhere, I do not find it credible that this was a plan that Israel would believe had any chance of success. But I can easily believe that they convinced Trump it would work and used it to convince him to start this war.
The complete collapse of Trump’s “America First” messaging was reinforced this week when the Washington Post reported that the United States had expended far more of its missile defense resources to protect Israel than Israel had itself, making Trump looking even more foolish.
Americans continue to overwhelmingly disapprove of Trump’s handling of Iran, including a quarter of Republicans, in a recent poll, an unusually high number.
On Thursday, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson was forced to cancel a planned vote on a war powers resolution because too many Republicans were going to vote with Democrats to enforce Congress’ constitutional power over war and stop Trump from continuing the war with Iran.
Even Trump’s sycophantic inner circle will have a hard time shielding him from this embarrassment, one that exposes the fact that there have been no tangible gains, only losses, for American interests, even by Republican standards. Trump will be inclined to try what he always tries: pounding Iran in the hopes of making them give in. Yet these same pressures, as with the other factors, only reinforce the need for a deal.
