Trump’s “Operation Economic Outcast” to impose secondary sanctions on countries trading with Iran is a tacit admission of U.S. military defeat. But sanctions haven’t worked for 47 years, and Iran won’t let the U.S. decide when the shooting war ends.
Benjamin Netanyahu gushed about his White House meeting with Donald Trump this week, but the meeting was most notable for what went unsaid about Iran.
American goals in the war on Iran were unclear from the start, driven by Donald Trump’s personal ambitions and the fantasies of pro-Israel neoconservatives. Now, however, there is a clear agenda: to prevent Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz.
There is a concerted effort to undermine a potential peace deal with Iran. That is not surprising. What is concerning is that it is coming not only from the pro-Israel right but also from liberals and some parts of the progressive left.
The American order that gave Israel stability now constrains Israel’s expansion. In response, Israel is dismantling U.S. hegemony in the region, turning allies Turkey and Egypt into enemies, and working to end the U.S.’s ability to restrain it.
Netanyahu has staked Israel’s economic future on becoming a Mediterranean trade hub to replace the Strait of Hormuz. The war on Iran was supposed to make that possible, but it consumed the fiscal space, U.S. backing, and Gulf capital needed for it.
Benjamin Netanyahu is under fire across the Israeli political spectrum for allowing the U.S. to reach a deal with Iran. “The state of Israel won the battle,” said Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid, but “Netanyahu lost the war.”
The U.S. and Iran have reportedly signed a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz and to begin negotiations to end the war. It is a hopeful sign that this disastrous war of choice may soon be over, but once again, Israel stands to be the spoiler.
The U.S. can end the Iran war, but only if it restrains Israel. Will Donald Trump muster the political will to end this disastrous war of choice?
The flare-up in violence between Iran and Israel on June 8 was less about the two countries’ immediate goals and more a reflection of Iran’s long-term efforts to reassert a united axis of resistance to U.S.-Israeli hegemony in the region.