Last summer an Iraq veteran stood up in the balcony during John McCain's speech at the Republican convention with a sign "You Can't Win an Occupation." Steve Walt sent me an email that contained the same truth this afternoon, and has let me publish it:
ground offensive and doesn't have a clear sense of the end-game here. If
so, then they may have repeated the key blunder of the 2006 Lebanon War:
assuming that air power could accomplish major strategic objectives (i.e.,
destroying Hamas) and failing to consider what would happen if the adversary
didn't collapse as planned.
At the same time, it presents Hamas with a difficult
decision. They have two main choices:
1. Accept the ceasefire and start rebuilding, while
emphasizing the brutality and ultimate futility of what Israel did. My
guess here is that there will be immediate recriminations in Israel for not
"finishing the job," and Netanyahu will sail to victory. And of
course it leaves the basic question of a political solution completely
unresolved.
2. Reject the ceasefire (or accept it but then let somebody fire off a few more rockets), and force Israel to go in on the ground. The upside for Hamas is that this once again makes Abbas look like a wimp and a stooge and makes Israelis look even more brutal, and it moves the competition into close-quarters urban warfare where Hamas can impose real costs on the IDF. The downside for Hamas is that it makes them look like they are the ones that aren't interested in peace, and will be used to demonize them even more.
What is astonishing to me is the inability of smart people to realize that the Occupation is the taproot of this entire mess, and that these problems are going to keep happening until the Occupation ends. I'm no fan of Hamas, its worldview, or its tactics, but what sort of response does one expect? And don't all the pro-Israel spin-doctors realize that going to these lengths to maintain the occupation–which at the end of the day is what this whole business is about–is very, very bad for Israel itself?
I do wonder what Obama is thinking as he watches this one, knowing that he gets to take charge in three weeks. The coverage in MSM has been typically one-sided, and I keep waiting for just one serious mainstream politician or media commentator to stand up and speak a little truth about the stupidity of it all.
