Ha'aretz is reporting that the Obama administration is taking an "unprecedented move" by preparing Democratic congressional leaders for the upcoming clash with the Netanyahu government over establishing a Palestinian state. As Obama's recent trip to Turkey has shown he views the two-state solution as a centerpiece to his overall strategy to US policy in the Middle East. Evidently he is now seeing the new Israeli government as an impediment to this, rather than a partner. He also knows Israel will have some strong advocates in Washington. Aluf Benn explains this strategy is meant to cut the Israel lobby off at the knees, "The preemptive briefing is meant to foil the
possibility that Netanyahu may try to bypass the administration by
rallying support in Congress."
It may be too late as the battle lines of the upcoming throw down are coming into focus. In the Israeli corner, neocon Elliott Abrams tries to bring the Netanyahu line to the masses today by arguing for Israel's illegal West Bank settlements in his Washington Post oped "The Settlement Freeze Fallacy." Abrams says:
Settlement activity is not diminishing the territory of a future
Palestinian entity. In fact, the emphasis on a "settlement freeze"
draws attention from the progress that's needed to lay the foundation
for full Palestinian self-rule — building a thriving economy, fighting
terrorism through reliable security forces and establishing the rule of
law. A "settlement freeze" would not help Palestinians face today's
problems or prepare for tomorrow's challenges. The demand for a freeze
would have only one quick effect: to create immediate tension between
the United States and Israel's new government. That may be precisely
why some propose it, but it is also why the Obama administration should
reject it.
That in a nutshell is the Netanyahu proposal – continue Israeli colonization of the West Bank while outsourcing Israeli security needs to a Palestinian police force and throwing the Palestinians some economic crumbs. This is what's paternalistically referred to as "[laying] the foundation
for full Palestinian self-rule." But interestingly enough, Abrams doesn't seem to think this is convincing enough for American audiences, so his real argument against a settlement freeze echos the Ha'aretz article – Obama should reject this demand because it will only create tension between Israel and the US.
In the Obama corner, the indefatigable Roger Cohen brings it again today in his article "Israel Cries Wolf." The article focuses primarily on the Israeli propaganda campaign against the Iranian nuclear program, and Cohen tears apart the recent Netanyahu interview with "his faithful stenographer Jeffrey Goldberg" as the latest chapter in this effort. After disposing of Netanyahu's bluster, Cohen puts the Israeli fear mongering in a broader perspective:
What’s going on here? Israel, as it has for nearly two decades, is
trying to lock in American support and avoid any disadvantageous change
in the Middle Eastern balance of power, now overwhelmingly tilted in
Jerusalem’s favor, by portraying Iran as a monstrous pariah state bent
on imminent nuclear war.A semblance of power balance is often
the precondition for peace. Iran was left out of the Madrid and Oslo
processes, with disastrous results. But that’s a discussion for another
day.What’s critical right now is that Obama view Netanyahu’s
fear-mongering with an appropriate skepticism, rein him in, and pursue
his regime-recognizing opening toward Tehran. The president should read
Trita Parsi’s excellent “Treacherous Alliance” as preparation.The
core strategic shift of Obama’s presidency has been away from the
with-us-or-against-us rhetoric of the war on terror toward a
rapprochement with the Muslim world as the basis for isolating
terrorists.
Cohen ends with a striking statement – "Israeli hegemony is proving a kind of slavery. Passage to the Promised
Land involves rethinking the Middle East, starting in Iran."
The Obama administration seems to understand that the nature of the US's prior uncritical support of Israel is no longer in its national interest. Cohen understands this also and is helping lead the charge. But as Abrams shows, the lobby is not going to go down without a fight. The first test is going to be whether Obama is willing to use the leverage he has to end the Israeli colonization of the West Bank. Israel will not stop unless it's forced, and Obama is in the strongest position to do this. Round One is getting ready to start.
