Opinion

Nina Turner didn’t make Israel an issue (and in hindsight, she should have)

Israel still firmly has the support the Democratic Party establishment, but polls show the base has really turned. Nina Turner could have run for that vote by making Israel an issue, but she didn't.

People will be analyzing Nina Turner’s loss in Ohio last night for days and months to come, as it was a successful case of the Democratic establishment preventing the enlargement of the progressive Squad in Congress. But one clear takeaway from the race today is that being pro-Israel is a Democratic establishment value, even if the Democratic base doesn’t like Israel; and that establishment will fight over the Israel issue to the end.

Nancy Pelosi is over the moon over Shontel Brown’s victory; and remember that Nancy Pelosi said not long ago, Ignore the Israel critics in our party, there are just a handful; and “if this Capitol crumbled to the ground, the one thing that would remain would be our commitment to… Israel.”

Certainly Shontel Brown was also upfront about her love of Israel. Last night she thanked her Jewish “brothers and sisters” for supporting her and said how moved she was by seeing Israel’s vulnerability to Hamas rockets on her visit to the country in 2018.

The Jewish pro-Israel vote seems to have been important in Ohio 11: suburban white voters who apparently came out for Brown included many Jews. “Two million dollars was spent by DMFI galvanizing this population,” says analyst Briahna Joy Gray, formerly a Sanders spokesperson.

DMFI is the Democratic Majority for Israel. And the Ohio race is a reminder of how important Jewish donors are to the Democratic Party.

Turner lost a big lead in the race, apparently because of an onslaught of negative ads that were paid for by the Democratic Majority for Israel but that said nothing about Israel, just questioned Turner’s commitment to Joe Biden and the Democratic Party. As the young Jewish group IfNotNow says of Democratic Majority for Israel:

A PAC created to defend Israeli apartheid — funded by GOP donors and fossil fuel billionaires — essentially bought a Congressional seat against a progressive working class champion.

Kirk Bado of the National Journal says that “DMFI has spent more opposing Nina Turner than nearly all other outside spending combined.” He tweeted this graph showing all the DMFI money.

Kirk Bado graph on money spent for Nina Turner and Shontel Brown in Ohio race.

By the way, Turner’s other big opponent, Third Way, is a PAC associated with bankers that opposes progressive economic policies.

DMFI is all about keeping the right-wing AIPAC branch alive inside the Democratic Party. Among its big donors is Robert Kraft, who supported Trump. Other DMFI contributors include Stacy Schusterman, the oil heiress devoted to Israel, and Alan Levow and Milton Cooper who are associated with AIPAC. And Victor Kohn, another pro-Israel donor who has given a lot to Democrats but also to Ted Cruz, Lindsey Graham, and Kevin McCarthy. (And yes, that’s a big reason that Republicans support Israel, they can pull donors.) Oh and Republican Bill Kristol also supported Shontel Brown, surely because of Israel.

All this raises the question of why Nina Turner didn’t talk about Israel as much as Shontel Brown did?

Nina Turner regularly talked about “dark money” coming in, including in her eloquent concession statement. At Turner’s get-out-the-vote rally in Cleveland on Sunday, Bernie Sanders slammed campaign funding by Wall Street, drug and insurance companies, and fossil fuels corporations. While Turner knocked “every special interest, big oil to big banks to big drug companies.”

Turner asked:

Why are they spending all of that money on little old me? Inquiring minds want to know.

Yes why? Nina Turner is a real progressive who believes in structural economic change — which upsets the elites.

But surely one reason they were spending that money on Little Old Me was because of Israel. And Nina Turner didn’t want to talk about that.

Turner is to Shontel Brown’s left on the issue. She supports conditioning aid to Israel, as members of the Congressional squad do. But she is not all that progressive on the issue. She opposes the nonviolent boycott, divestment and sanctions campaign aimed at Israel. She supports the so-called two-state solution.

Turner did dare to say, “Palestinian Lives Matter,” as Israel was slaughtering over 200 in the May offensive.

But by and large Turner kept her mouth shut about Israel.

Turner didn’t talk about the issue openly for obvious reasons: because she didn’t want to be smeared as an antisemite, and she wanted to hold on to the Jews in the suburbs, as many as she could anyway.

But looking back on the race, she was damned if she did and damned if she didn’t. So maybe next time a progressive candidate will actually be vocal about the Israel issue.

The voters want that. The Democratic base really have turned against Israel, says new polling by Shibley Telhami of Brookings. By four to one they blamed Israel not Palestine for the May war, 32 to 8. That ratio goes to 45 to 6 when you break out Democrats under 34.

Democrats don’t like where the Congress is on the issue. “Two-thirds of Democrats… say their representatives lean toward Israel more than they do.” 

Nina Turner could have run for that vote by making Israel an issue, but she didn’t.

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You really think they didn’t do polling on this in a race where she raised like $4m dollars? Is it possible that she lost because she was just a terrible candidate that managed to squander a 35 point lead despite having raised at least as much money as her opponent?

Lesson to be learned: If you are a declared progressive but pander to the lobby, even to the limited degree that the Turner campaign did, you will disappoint the progressive base – and you will lose!

totally agree Phil. When under attack fight back don’t waver and hesitate and appease your opponents. She should have called out pro-Israel money and asked if voters wanted a candidate who was supported by a racist apartheid state overseas rather than tackle bread and butter issues like a decent health service. Cowardice never pays

The man who told us that the Arab Spring would put liberal democrats into power in Egypt, now tells Nina Turner how she could have won in Ohio. Maybe his knowledge of American politics is superior to his knowledge of Egyptian politics. (It is. It couldn’t possibly be worse.) Still Ms. Turner and other serious politicians should be forewarned: Weiss is an ideologue. He’s a failed analyst. An ideologue who salivates for the day when Congress will convene a House Unamerican Activities Committee and summon Jews to ask them, “Are you now or have you ever been a Zionist?” I’m not saying that longed for day (of Weiss’s) will never come, but I am saying that those who wish to win elections in the present tense or the short run, should look carefully at the poll numbers. Indeed Democrats who have an opinion are more pro Palestine than their congressional reps, but about half of Democrats have no opinion, and who is to say whether these uncommitted or apathetic or middle of the road Democrats would look kindly on the type of rhetoric Weiss is advising. Surely it’s feasible that these middle of the roaders might not appreciate the conflagration politics that Weiss advocates and while such inflammatory rhetoric would serve Weiss and his dream of a future HUAC committe, it would not serve their political aspirations. Listening to Weiss might be as useful as depending on Weiss’s assessment of the Egyptian Arab Spring: foolhardy.

“We didn’t lose this race—the evil money manipulated and maligned this election.”

— Nina Turner

A better strategy may have been to let her win, the antisemitism of the US left needs to be dealt with – and more sunshine and more megaphones can only help.