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‘Operation al-Aqsa Flood’ Day 188: Tensions rise over potential Iranian response to Israeli attack on consulate in Damascus

Israel and Iran escalated threats of war as the U.S. central command chief visited the region on Thursday. Meanwhile, Israeli airstrikes intensify in the central Gaza Strip.

Casualties 

  • 33,545 + killed* and at least 76,049 wounded in the Gaza Strip.
  • 456+ Palestinians killed in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem.**
  • Israel revises its estimated October 7 death toll down from 1,400 to 1,139.
  • 604 Israeli soldiers have been killed since October 7, and at least 6,800 injured.***

*Gaza’s Ministry of Health confirmed this figure on its Telegram channel on April 9, 2024. Some rights groups estimate the death toll to be much higher when accounting for those presumed dead.

** The death toll in the West Bank and Jerusalem is not updated regularly. According to the PA’s Ministry of Health on April 5, this is the latest figure.

*** This figure is released by the Israeli military, showing the soldiers whose names “were allowed to be published.” The number of Israeli soldiers wounded is according to Israeli media reports.

Key Developments 

  • Israel kills 63 Palestinians, wounds 45 in the past 24 hours across Gaza, raising the death toll since October 7 to 33,482 and the number of wounded to 76,049, according to the Gaza health ministry.
  • Israel kills six members of Hamas chief’s family, including three sons and three grandchildren in al-Shati’ refugee camp in northern Gaza.
  • Israeli army launches dozens of strikes on al-Nuseirat refugee camp and its surroundings.
  • Israeli army targets fishing dock in Gaza City.
  • Israel and Iran conduct air maneuvers.
  • Axios quoting Israeli officials: Israel is preparing for an Iranian attack, coordinating with the U.S.
  • Israel’s Channel 12: Netanyahu didn’t keep his promise to Biden to open Asdod port for humanitarian aid.
  • Israeli security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir asks war minister Yoav Gallant not to allow the release of body of Walid Daqqah.
  • Israeli police to open investigation against Palestinian professor at Tel Aviv University for “terror incitement” after mourning the death of Walid Daqqah on social media.
  • West Bank: Israeli settlers attack Palestinian villages, torch cars.
  • West Bank: Israeli forces raid Qalandia refugee camp north of Jerusalem, villages in Bethlehem and Hebron.

Israel kills 63 Palestinians, wounds 45 across Gaza 

The Gaza-based Palestinian health ministry announced that 122 Palestinians were killed by Israeli airstrikes, their bodies arriving at the Gaza Strip’s remaining hospitals alongside 56 other wounded people over the past 24 hours.

Meanwhile, in Gaza City, Israeli forces killed six family members of chief of Hamas’s politburo, Ismail Haniyeh, in an airstrike on a car they were driving in at al-Shati refugee camp. The victims include three of Haniyeh’s sons and three of his grandchildren, aged 5, 8, and 10 years old. Israel also bombed a family house on al-Nafaq Street in Gaza City, wounding several people.

In the central Gaza Strip, Israeli forces launched a series of airstrikes on the surroundings of the Nuseirat refugee camp, and then on the northern and western parts of Nusseirat. Israeli ground forces raided the camp through the village of Mighraqa and the town of al-Zahra, where they destroyed several residential towers.

Palestinian sources reported testimonies that shrapnel from the demolition landed inside an UNRWA school used as shelter by displaced Palestinian families, causing panic.

In the southern Gaza Strip. Palestinian medical teams continued to recover dead bodies from across Khan Younis, three days after Israeli forces withdrew from the city. Meanwhile, Israeli warplanes bombed farming land near Rafah.

Iran and Israel escalate threats, conduct maneuvers

The Israeli public broadcasting channel said on Wednesday that the Israeli air force conducted long-range air drills in conjunction with the Air Force of Cyprus.

The public broadcaster also said that the drills come in preparation for a potential Iranian attack as a response to Israel’s bombing of Iran’s consulate in Damascus in early April, which killed seven Iranian officials.

Simultaneously, the Iranian news agency Mahr reported on X that Tehran’s airspace was closed for airplanes due to military drills on Wednesday. The agency later deleted the tweet.

On Tuesday, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei repeated vows to avenge the bombing of the country’s consulate, stressing that Israel “will be punished.”

Meanwhile, ِAxios quoted officials in the U.S. defense department saying that Israel’s military was coordinating with the U.S. to respond to Iran’s threats.

The website reported that the U.S. central command chief will visit the region on Thursday and might visit Israel to coordinate a response to a potential Iranian attack.

Israeli settlers attack Palestinian villages in the West Bank, Israeli army raids Qalandia

Israeli settlers attacked late on Wednesday the villages of Lebban, south of Nablus, and Mughayer, east of Ramallah, setting fire to two cars, The attacks come one day after settlers set fire to a sheep barrack in the village of Burqa, west of Nablus.

In Lebban, a local resident who asked not to be named told Mondoweiss that settlers entered the village through surrounding hills around at 3 a.m., throwing rocks at houses while writing racist, anti-Palestinian slogans on walls and setting fire to one car. Settlers also tried to set fire to a house, but residents gathered and confronted them until they withdrew.

Residents’ accounts indicate that the Israeli army was stationed on the main road outside of the village throughout the settler attack and didn’t intervene.

Meanwhile, the Israeli army raided the Qalandia refugee camp in the northern periphery of Jerusalem, arresting a Palestinian man.

A resident in Qalandia told Mondoweiss that Israeli forces raided the camp before dawn and fired tear gas and live bullets at local youth who confronted the invading force by throwing stones. Residents’ accounts detailed that Israeli soldiers took over rooftops and searched water tanks.

Israeli forces have repeatedly raided Qalandia during the past month of Ramadan, often exchanging fire with local gunmen.

A resident told Mondoweiss that “the most difficult part during Ramadan was the repeated closures of the camp. They prevented residents from leaving for long hours, especially on Fridays when people tried to reach the al-Aqsa mosque. We eventually held prayers in the street at the camp’s entrance.”

Israeli forces also raided the town of al-Aizaryah in Jerusalem’s outskirts, arresting four teenagers. In Tulkarem, Israeli forces arrested five Palestinians.

Raids also targeted the villages of Taqoa, south of Bethlehem, Bir al-Basha, south of Jenin, and Idna, west of Hebron, arresting in total at least 12 Palestinians across the West Bank.

Since October 7, Israeli forces have arrested over 8,100 Palestinians. Currently, Israel holds at least 9,400 Palestinians in its jails, including 71 women, 200 children, and more than 3,600 detainees without charges under the Israeli system of administrative detention.

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As John O says, Biden is quick to promise “ironclad support” to Israel. Per BBC:

Mr Biden warned that Iran is threatening to launch a “significant attack” after Israel struck the Iranian consulate in Syria 10 days ago. 

“We’re going to do all we can to protect Israel’s security,” he added.

This may serve the interests of Israel’s governing party, but in terms of America’s interests, this is a perverse policy. I would say it is immoral too. We give Israel weapons and carte blanche to use them on Palestinians and on neighboring countries.

Robert Wright commented on this dynamic in a recent “Nonzero” newsletter titled “How the US media encourages Bibi’s dangerous brinksmanship.” His full analysis is worth reading, but I’ll include just a few short excerpts. Wright opens with a quotation from an Israeli general:

“One can expect a direct hit on a central target in Israel or a serious incident in one of our embassies around the world. Sooner or later, this could lead to an all-out regional war for which Israel is not completely prepared. … Whoever decided on the assassination is playing with fire.”

—Israeli Gen. Yitzhak Brik commenting on the consequences of Israel’s killing three Iranian generals in Syria this week

Wright then says:

. . . The Syria strikes, which killed three Iranian generals, marked a sharp escalation in Israel’s conflict with Iran and led to complaints that Israel was recklessly—or even intentionally—raising the chances that the US will be drawn into a regional war. 

On Tuesday, the day after the Syria strikes, the New York Times published a background piece by Steven Erlanger that seemed almost designed to counter such complaints.

After observing in the first paragraph that the Syria strikes constituted a “major escalation,” Erlanger asserted in the second paragraph that, nonetheless, Israel wasn’t trying to start a war with Iran. In the third paragraph he elaborated: “Instead, the strike is a vivid demonstration of the regional nature of the conflict as Israel tries to diminish and deter Iran’s allies and surrogates that threaten Israel’s security from every direction.”

After further discussion of media coverage, Wright notes:

There are two closely related biases at work here.

1) We play defense, they play offense. A well known human tendency (and a common ingredient in what international relations scholars call the “security dilemma”) is to read offensive motivation into what your adversaries see as their defensive behavior. For example, though Iran views Israel’s Syria strikes as offensive, Israel—as Erlanger painstakingly established in his Times piece—sees them as defensive. . . .

2. Attribution error. . . .We [tend] to attribute people’s behavior to disposition rather than situation. . .

Israel has Biden’s “ironclad” support. Any other country that attacked the embassy of another nation in the capital of a third country (neither of which it was at war with) would be told “Sorry, buddy, you’re on your own here.”

I predict that a few months on when the smoke clears and more accurate numbers are available we will find that Israel has killed 2% of Gaza’s population.