The U.S. appears to be pushing for more ethnic cleansing in Gaza. Will it succeed?

“We reject the displacement of Palestinians from their land. Moving them to Egypt is a military operation that could last years. … The peace we [Egyptians] have worked for would slip from our hands, as would a resolution to the Palestinian issue.”

Those words were spoken by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. One might think that they came in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement that he would “…like Egypt to take people, and I’d like Jordan to take people. You’re talking about probably a million and a half people, we just clean out that whole thing.”

Actually, Sisi spoke those words mere weeks after Israel began its genocidal operation in Gaza. He was speaking at a press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Schultz in Cairo on October 18, 2023. 

Days earlier, Joe Biden’s Secretary of State Antony Blinken had toured the region, assessing views of the brutal attack on Israel of October 7 and the burgeoning, murderous operation Israel launched after it. Part of his agenda was to float a transfer plan very similar to what Trump recently suggested, and he was firmly rebuffed. 

Trump might not be so easily deterred.

Keeping ethnic cleansing plans alive

Trump has been actively seeking countries to which he and Israel could deport the people of Gaza. Indonesia was one such potential destination, but Jakarta issued a statement rejecting the idea based solely on media reports before the United States even approached them directly.

Albania was also rumored to be in talks to accept some 100,000 people from Gaza. Albania’s Prime Minister Edi Rama vehemently denied any such discussions and reaffirmed, in his statement, his support for a Palestinian state. 

But this wasn’t just an empty rumor, even if Rama genuinely had not yet been approached by the Americans. The report was very likely circulated to test the waters, much like the Indonesia report had been. It was put out by Amit Segal, who is known to be a media mouthpiece for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. 

The quick responses from both Indonesia and Albania were to be expected. No predominately Muslim country can be seen to be cooperating with the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian people. But their quick refusal might not be the end of the issue.

Trump reiterated his desire on Monday for Egypt and Jordan to take in Palestinians from Gaza. Both Egypt and Jordan squarely rejected the idea. It should go without saying that Palestinians—whom, we should note, no one has bothered to ask—reject it absolutely as well. 

Yet Trump’s repeating it despite its initial rejection indicates it was more than random musing, as he is often given to. This is a concrete idea and it is likely one that he is hearing from those around him. 

Trump’s pick for U.S. Ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, and his nominee as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations have both expressed support for the views of Israel’s far right. This seems like the sort of idea that, if it can be actualized, would be to their liking. It is certainly appealing to the far right in Israel. 

Itamar Ben-Gvir, for example, called on Netanyahu and Arab leaders to adopt the plan. “Encouraging immigration is the only thing that will bring a solution of rest and tranquility to the State of Israel and to the residents of Gaza. I call on the Arab world to reach out to the residents of Gaza, let them immigrate.”

Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s Finance Minister and leader of the far-right Religious Zionism party has passionately embraced Trump’s plan and is working to push it forward, ignoring the objections from Egypt and Jordan.

“I am working with the prime minister and the cabinet to prepare an operational plan and ensure the realization of President Trump’s vision,” Smotrich said. “There is nothing to be excited about the weak opposition of Egypt and Jordan to the plan. We saw yesterday how Trump [imposed his will on] Colombia to deport immigrants despite its opposition. When he wants it, it happens.”

Smotrich is referring to the initial refusal from Colombia to accept deportees from the United States that Trump shipped out like criminals. After threatening Colombia with harsh tariffs, Colombian President Gustavo Petro was forced to change his position. 

Would Trump use such stern measures against Arab states to force them to accept Palestinians forcibly transferred from Gaza? 

It is possible that Trump could take such a drastic step, but if he did, it would be a much more complicated process than what he encountered with Colombia.

Regional consequences

Egypt, Jordan, or any other Arab or Muslim country are not refusing to take in Palestinians merely because it would look bad or be unpopular. They would be seen as complicit in Israel completing a program of ethnic cleansing that far surpasses the Nakba of 1948. 

Beyond the genocide Israel has already committed, if Trump and Israel could move a significant number of Palestinians out of Gaza, it would represent a stunning blow to the Palestinian cause. Any country that accepted Palestinian refugees forced out in such a manner would be taking in potentially hundreds of thousands of people who would be resentful toward that government for helping to remove them from their homeland. The local populations would support that view.

That is a clear recipe for unrest, and that is before we consider what an influx of such a large number of refugees would mean to countries that are already facing considerable economic crises like Egypt and, especially, Jordan. 

There is also the matter of how to force that many Palestinians out of Gaza. Trump has floated a figure of 1.5 million people, but even if it is a significant fraction of that number, the fighting it would necessitate would have to be at least as brutal as what Gaza has endured for the past fifteen months. What would be the point of Trump pressing Netanyahu for a ceasefire only to be the catalyst for starting an even bloodier round of genocide?

These scenarios would force Egypt and Jordan to dig in their heels, even in the face of suspension of American aid and perhaps even broader economic attacks such as tariffs or sanctions. Both countries would eventually be forced to threaten to pull out of their peace deals with Israel, something even Netanyahu would recognize as running counter to Israel’s interests. 

Smotrich and Ben-Gvir may not care about such consequences, but Israel’s military leaders and much of its more mainstream right-wing parties do, as do most of its opposition parties. 

It’s unclear if anyone who has Trump’s ear appreciates or understands these potential consequences. But if Trump really does try to press this issue, they will materialize soon enough.

The silence of the Gulf

The key players in the Arab world, from Trump’s point of view, are not bordering Israel but are around the Persian Gulf. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and other Gulf states have been largely silent about Trump’s proposal, contenting themselves with the statement of the full League of Arab States rejecting any attempt at removing the Palestinian people from Gaza. 

The most likely explanation is that the Gulf states are waiting to see how serious Trump is about pursuing this course. If he continues to press for it, the Gulf states will surely back Egypt, Jordan, and any other state that rejects it.

However, if Trump withdraws from the plan, it is likely to open competition among Gulf Arab states for influence in a future Gaza. 

All three states are seeking a political foothold in Gaza by winning hearts and minds through reconstruction efforts and, potentially, by being part of a governance and security structure that would pave the way for a new Palestinian leadership. 

But for any of those states—especially Saudi Arabia and Qatar—the Gaza they wish to be a part of is one with the full Palestinian population and, preferably, one that is connected to the West Bank. Neither country would see their interests served by a permanent Israeli occupation, much less the expulsion of Palestinians and replacement with Israelis who would, eventually, find themselves annexed to Israel. 

Trump may still envision Gaza as a massive real estate swindle for him and his family. If so, that vision is consistent with both the forcible expulsion of Palestinians and the full withdrawal of Israel from the Strip. In either case, he will need partners. 

If Trump pursues his proposed ethnic cleansing, he would partner with Israeli settlers to build settlements and tourist attractions in Gaza. If he backs off that plan, he will want to partner with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, or other outside actors to rebuild Gaza and add whatever hotels and spas he might be envisioning. 

Gaza reconstruction is likely to take well over a decade, and the current cost estimate is around $40 billion. Businesses in Qatar, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt are all vying for some of that money. 

Qatar and Türkiye are seen as undesirable by Israel, especially the Israeli right, but they have close ties to Trump and his family. The Saudi connection, already very strong, was reinforced this week when the Kingdom pledged some $600 billion in investments in the United States. Trump will try to involve all of them, in all likelihood.

Gaza will inevitably require a large amount of financial support to rebuild. Wherever those funds come from, there will be a price to pay. The first, crucial step is to ensure that the price does not include further ethnic cleansing. It will then be necessary to think carefully and strategically about how to ensure that the outcome is one that will lead to Palestinian freedom, not more dependency.