Plan to force Palestinians to Sinai yet another Biden disaster

At a press conference after his meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Schulz earlier this month, Egyptian President Abdel Fatteh al-Sisi declared “We reject the displacement of Palestinians from their land. Moving them to Egypt is a military operation that could last years. … The peace we [Egyptians] have worked for would slip from our hands, as would a resolution to the Palestinian issue.”

The message was intended for the United States and Israel, addressing the idea that Israel would use its campaign of death and destruction in Gaza to drive Palestinians out of the Strip and into the Sinai desert. Multiple reports indicated that this was the plan that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken carried with him during his tour of the region shortly after the October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas.

While Al-Sisi’s blunt refusal of an American plan was unusual, his declaration of solidarity with the Palestinian cause rang hollow to anyone familiar with the region. Egypt—and especially the Egyptian military establishment that Al-Sisi leads—has long worked closely with Israel to “manage” Gaza. His stance comes from internal concerns, particularly security concerns, and therefore could be changed if the circumstances leading to his stance change.

That change could be coming in the most powerful form to Egyptian eyes: American money.

Biden’s funding request

On Monday, U.S. President Joe Biden sent a letter to Congress outlining his request for supplemental funding for Israel, Ukraine, the U.S.-Mexico border, and a few other issues. Aside from the bulk of the funds going to Israel for more weaponry, Biden also requested some funds to be spent on humanitarian needs for the Palestinians. 

“These resources would support displaced and conflict-affected civilians, including Palestinian refugees in Gaza and the West Bank, and to address potential needs of Gazans fleeing to neighboring countries,” Biden wrote.

One might think that this refers to temporary shelter and sustenance while Israel decimates Gaza. But the letter goes on to explain, “Funding would also support life-saving humanitarian programming in Israel and areas impacted by the situation in the West Bank and Gaza, and to provide lifesaving assistance, including food assistance, shelter, healthcare, water, sanitation, and hygiene programming. This crisis could result in displacement across borders and higher regional humanitarian needs, and funding may be used to meet evolving programming requirements outside of Gaza, including Israel, West Bank, Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, and Egypt.” (emphasis added)

As Lara Friedman, President of the Foundation for Middle East Peace put it, “Hard to see how this is anything other than the Biden Admin giving a green light to an outcome that will amount to direct ethnic cleansing.”

Indeed, it sounds very much like the United States is preparing for a scenario where the people of Gaza, who are already overwhelmingly refugees, will be permanently displaced yet again. And Egypt would be the targeted location.

Jordan had been discussed as well, but the Hashemite Kingdom is already hosting too many refugees from Syria. The northern Sinai, on the other hand, is sparsely populated, and the United States hopes that if Egypt is promised enough financial incentives—given the dire economic state of the country right now—it might be willing to cooperate. Al-Sisi’s proclamations are surely genuine as things stand now. And should he relent under U.S. pressure, he can point to these statements and say he was forced to accept by Biden but that he still supports the Palestinian cause. 

As Jonathan Ofir reported, there are several plans floating around the Israeli government for the forced relocation of the population of Gaza into the Sinai. It’s not clear how much traction they have gained among the inner circle around Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but the increased pressure on Gaza’s southern border due to Israel directing the population from the north to head in that direction certainly is an indication that the idea of sending Gazans to Sinai is part of Israel’s plan.

The U.S. role

Moving the Gaza population to Egypt is not a new idea. There have been various formulations of this notion for decades. They have generally been inspired by Egypt’s rule over Gaza from 1948-1967, when it occupied Gaza but kept it separate from Egyptian territory, disconnected from the rest of the country. 

None of these old ideas ever made any sense for Egypt. But the situation now is different. With Al-Sisi facing elections soon and the country angry at the economic crisis, the United States hopes that its money and influence will make the difference and cause Egypt to be more susceptible to an American bribe. 

It’s a very long shot. However desperate Al-Sisi might be, he realizes that moving a large number of Palestinians from Gaza to Sinai is a powder keg of trouble, one that the Americans don’t seem to grasp. As Al-Sisi noted, Sinai would become a new base for attacks against Israel, and Israel, citing “self-defense” and with the full support of the United States, would then launch its own attacks on Egyptian territory. 

That comes on top of the anger that would be directed at the Egyptian government for its complicity in what would undoubtedly be viewed, correctly, by Palestinians as a second Nakba. This is an even bigger concern as at least some residents of the West Bank are also at risk of displacement, as Israeli attacks from both soldiers and settlers have been increasing under the fog of war in Gaza. 

In Washington, it is thought that money solves everything, and Al-Sisi’s vulnerability at this moment certainly enhances that possibility. The country’s debt is around $165 billion, and the problems threaten both the Egyptian populace and many in Al-Sisi’s inner circle. An infusion of American cash and American pressure to cancel a substantial part of Cairo’s debt are powerful incentives. U.S. Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has also held discussions with Al-Sisi about resettling Palestinians in Sinai, so Washington sees this as a real possibility.

Biden’s damage

President Biden is now talking about pushing for a renewed “peace process,” leading to a two-state solution after the Israeli operation is over. On Wednesday, he called for a “concentrated effort for all the parties — Israelis, Palestinians, regional partners, global leaders — to put us on a path toward peace.” 

This would seem to be just the latest example of Biden’s words not matching his actions, but in this case, it is even more dangerous. 

While the United States works with Israel to displace, at the least, a significant percentage of Gaza’s population across the border into Egypt, there is no chance for any kind of diplomacy. Already, much of the northern Gaza Strip has been reduced to rubble. Even if the people who fled from the cities in the north were permitted to go back, there is nothing to back to. According to at least one report, Gaza City, Jabalia, Beit Hanoun, and Beit Lahiya are all essentially gone. 

The United States is correctly seen throughout the region, and not just by Palestinians, as having facilitated and enabled this destruction. The lack of anything more than rhetorical action by Arab states, while perhaps surprising to no one, hardly grants them any credibility in laying out a future for the region that includes a free Palestine. 

And, of course, there is Israel. The Hamas attack on October 7 has had a profound effect on the Israeli citizenry. While there is a very good chance that the massive security and intelligence failure that allowed that attack to have the kind of bloody impact that it did is going to mean the end, at long last, of Benjamin Netanyahu’s political career, Israelis are now going to be even more reluctant to acknowledge Palestinian rights than before. Regardless of who leads the next government, it’s going to be one that would require significant pressure from the U.S. to compromise, and Biden has made it clear he will not apply that pressure, especially with an election looming. Thus, Biden’s talk of a “peace process” now is clearly a fantasy and rhetoric intended to divert, rather than resolve, anything. 

Palestinian anger will be of an entirely new variety, whatever the outcome. In 1948, the Nakba was carried out with much of the world not even being aware of it. Today, the ethnic cleansing of Gaza is on all of our televisions and smartphones. This time, Americans, Europeans, and, yes, Arab leaders are all seeing it in real-time and are either unable or, more often, unwilling to do anything. Many even support it, especially in the West. The anger Palestinians cannot help but feel at the indifference and hatred of their very existence will be a scar that will take a long time to heal and certainly will not help in finding a new track for a resolution. 

There is a way forward, but Biden will not take it and certainly will not even try to push it on Israel, which would hate it. It starts with Palestinian self-determination, in the form of new national elections that are held under international monitoring, and without interference from Israel or the U.S. That is followed by talks brokered by the United Nations between Israel and the new Palestinian government, where any and all ideas for a permanent resolution, not pre-approved by Washington, are discussed in a process that all parties must engage with in good faith on pain of significant economic sanctions. Only the UN Security Council can get that done, and the U.S. would have to agree.

That’s a fantasy, clearly. But no less of one than Biden’s ideas. And no less than the absurd insistence on a two-state solution that has long since disappeared from the realm of realistic possibility. 

But one thing is certain. If the aftermath of the Israeli operation is one where Gaza’s population has been forcibly transferred to the Sinai, we can expect no possibility of a reduction of violence in the near term nor any serious possibility of successful diplomacy. It’s a poison pill for the future, and one Biden would be well-advised to abandon. He has already caused more damage in Palestine and Israel than any of his predecessors, and that is no small statement considering the damage successive administrations have done in this region over the decades. The Sinai plan would only make it worse. Much worse.