Rubio’s first Mideast trip reveals Trump plans for the region

U.S. President Donald Trump’s Secretary of State Marco Rubio made his first trip to the Middle East this week. He met with leaders in Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. 

While Rubio’s mission was initially to talk with leaders about Gaza, Iran, and other regional issues, it was overshadowed by the meeting in Saudi Arabia between Rubio, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and their respective teams. It was the first high-level, in-person meeting of its kind since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine three years ago.

Even at that meeting, important as it was, Rubio was not seen as the guiding hand. The United States’ position, and its stance as discussions progressed, were clearly being guided directly by Trump from afar, with Rubio acting as a mechanical mouthpiece. 

Of course, any secretary of state answers to the president, and is charged with carrying out the president’s policy decisions. But they are usually a key part of those decisions. How they are subsequently shaped in dealings with other countries is often left in the hands of the secretary. That’s why it is such a high-level position, and that role was very much the sort that Antony Blinken played in Joe Biden’s administration. 

Rubio’s status is significantly less than that. 

“The simple story is that Rubio is not in charge,” said Sen. Chris Murphy, a Connecticut Democrat and long-time colleague of Rubio’s in the Senate told Politico. “But in order to maintain the appearance that he’s in charge, he has to defend the decisions other people are making,”

When asked who the real secretary of state is, Murphy responded, “Elon Musk.”

That response is a bit glib, but it also, perhaps counterintuitively, demonstrates that Trump intends to be more directly involved in foreign policy than he was in his first term. 

Opening radical paths for Israel

Trump is driving U.S. policy in the Middle East, using Rubio as his carrier pigeon, and largely adopting the positions of the far-right Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu. It is not entirely Israel’s policy that Trump is pursuing, though; for example, he has made the release of all Israeli hostages a genuine priority, something Netanyahu steadfastly refused to do. He did this not out of a sense of concern or compassion, but as a way to bolster his image and to demonstrate his “superiority” to Joe Biden. 

Rubio followed Trump’s lead while he was in Israel. After Trump had thrown the ceasefire into crisis by declaring his plan to ethnically cleanse Gaza and create a “Riviera on the Mediterranean,” Rubio followed up by declaring, “ The President has been very clear:  Hamas cannot continue as a military or government force.  And frankly, as long as it stands as a force that can govern or as a force that can administer or as a force that can threaten by use of violence, peace becomes impossible.  They must be eliminated.  It must be eradicated.”

Rubio’s choice of words here is important. Hamas has already signaled, more than once, its willingness to cede control of Gaza to a technocratic or unaffiliated Palestinian body, but it has refused to disarm and it has not agreed to remove itself entirely from decision-making in Gaza. 

Taken as a whole, Hamas’ position and Rubio’s statement confirm that the genocide will continue at the end of the first phase of ceasefire, which is just weeks away. That’s why Hamas says it is willing to release all the remaining hostages if Israel withdraws fully from Gaza. In effect, they are trying to complete the second phase before Israel and the United States have the chance to moot it. 

The mainstream American media has been virtually silent about this offer, which is telling. It will be more difficult to blame Hamas for the collapse of the ceasefire while Israelis are still being held in Gaza if Americans know about this offer.

Rubio didn’t stop at Gaza. He also made sure that we didn’t forget that Iran remains in both Israel’s and the U.S.’s crosshairs. “The common theme in all of these challenges is Iran.  It is the single greatest source of instability in the region.  Behind every terrorist group, behind every act of violence, behind every destabilizing activity, behind everything that threatens peace and stability for the millions of people who call this region home, is Iran… And that must be addressed.”

Rubio’s words take on a more ominous tone in the context of what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had stated just before him. He said that he and Rubio “agreed that Iran’s aggression in the region has to be rolled back,” and that with Trump’s support, “we can and will finish the job.”

When we consider that U.S. intelligence had already concluded that Israel intends to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities in the first half of this year, these statements become even more chilling.

Worst case scenarios are not inevitable

Five Arab states—Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates—are frantically trying to put together a plan for Gaza that would counter Trump’s. 

Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen said he had spoken to some of the representatives working on the initiative. “A lot of the focus will be to demonstrate to Trump and others that, ‘Yes, there is a viable plan to rebuild, we will invest the resources there.’ Their view is that Trump’s a real estate guy, he talked about redeveloping Gaza, they want to put together a viable plan that shows Trump that you can rebuild Gaza and provide a future for two million Palestinians.”

That sounds ambitious, but the Arab heads of state have all worked hard to make Trump understand that his plan to drive the people of Gaza out will only lead to a new degree of chaos and bloodshed. If they can put together a viable plan in short order, we will see if they have gotten through to Trump.

A positive sign came on Wednesday when the UAE’s President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan told Rubio that his country rejects any plan involving the removal of Palestinians from their land. That was an important statement since just last week the Emirati Ambassador to the U.S. said that he saw no viable alternative to Trump’s plan for Gaza. 

Israel, of course, is already licking its lips at the prospect of emptying Gaza of Palestinians. But Netanyahu knows that he has to appease Trump; if the U.S. president decides to pursue an Arab alternative and put his weight behind the idea, Netanyahu will bend, just as he did with the ceasefire. 

Can the Arab states come up with such a plan? They initially planned a summit for February 27, but postponed it for a few days, to March 4 to give them more time to come up with a plan. There will be an initial meeting on Friday to try to assemble the framework of the proposal. 

The basic idea that Egypt is working with is for the people of Gaza to be housed in several “secure areas” in mobile homes, relying on international aid while international teams work on rebuilding the Strip’s infrastructure and buildings. A Palestinian governing body that is not connected to either Hamas or the Palestinian Authority would govern local issues and a police force of former PA police from the days prior to Hamas’ defeat of Fatah’s, Israel’s, and the U.S.’ attempted coup in 2007 would provide local security.

That framework is preliminary and could change in the upcoming meetings, and is likely to be altered even further as the United States makes its judgments, but this would seem like the only viable alternative at this point to attempting to carry out Trump’s horrific plan. Egyptian sources told the Associated Press that the plan would take five years, though given the devastation in Gaza, the inevitable Israeli obstructionism, the likelihood that there will be some internal differences among Palestinians, and unforeseeable complications, that seems like a very ambitious timeline. 

Still, it offers some real hope and the possibility of success in the long run. At the very least, just putting it on the table should help forestall Israel’s attempts to force huge numbers of Palestinians out of Gaza.

On Iran, there is more cause for concern. Trump’s rhetoric on that front has been as bellicose as one might expect, yet it has also been balanced with his usual contradictory messaging. In early February, for example, he posted on his social media site, “I want Iran to be a great and successful Country, but one that cannot have a Nuclear Weapon. Reports that the United States, working in conjunction with Israel, is going to blow Iran into smithereens,’ ARE GREATLY EXAGGERATED.”

Rubio’s and Netanyahu’s words, as well as the American intelligence assessment, indicate the opposite. But, according to reports, Saudi Arabia is testing the waters for a possible role as a mediator for a new Iran nuclear deal to preclude a strike on Iran that risks huge consequences for the entire region.

Given how bitterly the Saudis opposed the 2015 Iran nuclear deal struck by Barack Obama, this is more than a little ironic. But the threat of an Israeli-American attack is much more significant now, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman knows that could enflame the region as nothing ever has before. 

Iran says they have heard nothing from Riyadh about this. Their own position is a difficult one. They lost a lot of their defense capabilities when Israel attacked them last year, which is a big reason the U.S. expects Israel to seize the opportunity and attack soon. But the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has also become less enthusiastic about engaging the U.S. in the wake of the Trump administration’s decision to renew and strengthen the already crippling sanctions against the Islamic Republic. 

The Saudis are certainly not committed to pursuing a new nuclear deal, but it’s worth seeing how other players would react. Traditionally, Oman and Qatar have tended to play the role of intermediary between Washington and Tehran. This trial balloon is likely meant to gauge their reactions to the idea as well as to demonstrate to Trump that Saudi Arabia can be a useful ally in diplomacy, as they also showed by hosting the meeting between Rubio and Lavrov. 

Even if that process doesn’t take hold, it demonstrates that the key Arab states in the Gulf are committed to averting all-out war between Iran and Israel, a conflict which, in addition to the direct devastation it will cause, is likely to tear apart the social fabric of many countries in the Middle East. Those countries, which contribute a great deal of money to the Trump family coffers, are very likely to have more influence than usual with this president. 

But as influential as they are, so is Israel. And Israel very much wants to press forward with exiling the Palestinians of Gaza today (and the West Bank tomorrow) and soon with an attack on Iran. But it can do neither without the backing and assistance of the Trump administration. The question is whether the Arab states will convince Trump their path is better for him.