Voters are forcing Democrats to shift on Israel, but this doesn’t mean U.S. support is ending anytime soon

Last week, over 100 Democrats voted in favor of Rep. Thomas Massie’s (R-KY) amendment to block $3.3 billion in U.S. military assistance to Israel.

This is a major development, but it certainly didn’t occur in a vacuum. Pick up any newspaper these days, and you’re liable to find at least one story about Israel’s reputation diminishing in the United States, whether it’s a primary where AIPAC is spending money in secret because its brand is so unpopular, or a poll that shows Americans’ views of Israelis have grown more negative.

This shift among the U.S. population is occurring at a rapid rate amid Trump and Netanyahu’s disastrous war on Iran. Just two years ago, a similar amendment aimed at blocking military aid to Israel garnered only 37 Democratic votes, but many politicians understand which way the wind is blowing.

For years, “Progressive Except Palestine” was a reliable political framework for candidates to rely on in ‘blue’ districts. Democratic politicians would stake out liberal positions on issues like the environment and healthcare. In fact, they might even oppose Forever Wars in the Middle East, but they remained dedicated to the status quo when it came to Israel.

These lawmakers wouldn’t generally express these views with the same crude and racist language we’ve come to expect from the American Right, even if they ended up arriving in the same place.

The standard script went something like this:

“For decades, Israel has been one of our closest and most important allies. We must guarantee the country’s right to exist, and it must be able to defend itself against Hamas, which is a terrorist organization. However, the humanitarian situation in Gaza must also be taken seriously, and the current right-wing government of Israel must halt settlement expansion to ensure a lasting peace in the region for all people and provide the opportunity for a two-state solution.”

This kind of piffle used to receive little pushback, but now it’s viewed as wildly insufficient among progressive voters, as Palestine inevitably emerged as a litmus test amid the genocide. Many Democrats remain publicly committed to Israel (98 members of the party voted against the Massie amendment in the House), but most are scrambling to adapt their stance, especially those with upcoming reelection campaigns or presidential aspirations. The need to change has only been further solidified by the recent wave of insurgent progressive victories in the primaries.

Just look at former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, a stalwart supporter of Israel for many decades, who now insists that Israeli weapons shouldn’t be financed by U.S. taxpayers.

The mainstream media has treated the former Obama Chief of Staff’s about-face as a seismic moment. “Rahm Emanuel moves to the left on Israel,” declares one NBC News headline. However, a deeper look at his position reveals virtually nothing has moved in terms of policy goals.

“You’re a country, like all other allies of ours, Japan, South Korea, the Brits, the Germans,” Emanuel has declared. “You’re going to pay full price. You can buy what you want, but you have to abide by the laws. No more U.S. taxpayer support.”

In other words, the Israeli policies of occupation and apartheid can continue, but the United States will no longer foot the bill.

In a speech at Tel Aviv University earlier this month, Emanuel reiterated this position while insisting that Israel allow for the possibility of Palestinian sovereignty and abandon plans for further annexation of the West Bank. This presumably feels far behind the curve to most Democratic voters. In an article on his remarks, POLITICO founding editor John Harris notes that one of the pillars defining a potential Emanuel run is the “essential implausibility, amid prevailing political currents, of his nascent candidacy.”

“He is an establishment centrist who is deeply mistrusted by many of the more left-leaning, insurgent and increasingly Israel-skeptical activists who reasonably believe their energy will power the party’s next generation,” writes Harris.

Furthermore, the Emanuel plan to get the United States out of the Israeli aid business is a policy that’s been pushed by Benjamin Netanyahu for months. The idea is that the U.S./Israel relationship should be “reset.” Israel would be allowed to stand on its own while the two countries integrate their militaries, an effort that’s currently being pushed through Congress.

Many of the House Democrats who backed the Massie amendment don’t even go as far as Emanuel on this issue. They want to signal opposition to the Netanyahu government, but not much else.

“The American people are rightly demanding an end to a perpetual cycle of war, and the Netanyahu government cannot maintain its current course,” said Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). “Therefore, while this amendment is ill-conceived, I vote yes for the message that it sends.”

Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-MA), who also voted for the bill, said that Trump and Netanyahu must “face consequences, but said such repercussions should “not impair the state of Israel’s right to defend itself against the atrocities of the terrorist regimes that threaten it.”

One of the most notable takes on the House vote can be found in the pro-Israel Forward, where columnist Rob Eshman argues that this could all be good for Israel.

“Such a reset could make Israel itself stronger: less reliant on the whims of U.S. foreign and domestic policy; better able to diversify its sourcing and sale of weapons; and a key player in a regional peace, which includes the Palestinians,” writes Eshman, conjuring up the Emanuel/Netanyahu plan. “All of those changes could help bring true security.”

“These outcomes may seem aspirational. But it’s not like the old and now defunct patterns of aid were bringing Israelis the security they need,” he continues. “Democrats and Republicans, by listening to changing public opinion, have a chance to establish a new relationship rooted in a new vision.”

A newly defined relationship is certainly possible, but fused militaries and a continuation of U.S. support for Israel wouldn’t exactly be “listening to changing public opinion,” as 60% of U.S. adults now view Israel negatively. That’s up from 53% last year, and will likely keep growing. At the very least, we can’t expect a failed amendment and some criticisms of Netanyahu to reverse the trajectory.

Michael Arria
Michael Arria is Mondoweiss’ U.S. correspondents. He is the author of Medium Blue: The Politics of MSNBC. Follow him on x at @michaelarria.