Ray Close, a former CIA analyst, wrote the following letter to a foreign-policy list maintained by a Princeton scholar yesterday. Close gave me permission to publish [emphases mine]:
For a large number of sophisticated Israelis, particularly those who feel the deepest affinity with America — either by family relationships, education, political or business associations of one kind or another — I think there is another latent existential threat. It is the deep anxiety, based on gradually evolving rational analysis, that Israel will eventually (not immediately, but within a generation) become much less important to the United States than it is (or appears to be) today; that the American people and the US Government will jointly come to a realization that Israel is not, after all, biologically attached to America by a permanent umbilical cord; that we are not subscribers to an identical set of cultural and ethical and religious mores; that the US is not critically dependent on Israel's support in opposing some monster vaguely defined as Islamofascism; that Israel will not serve eternally as America's mentor and counselor in our joint efforts to preserve the American value system in a region dominated by an evil and alien culture; that Israel is not an American aircraft carrier that protects US strategic interests in the whole region; that Israel is not the final line of defence against the threat of nuclear attack by dangerously unstable governments bent on destruction of Homeland America.
I think this deep dread, never articulated, contains a closely related anxiety: that increasing numbers of upper-class American-oriented Israelis, despairing finally of ever enjoying a peaceful and secure lifestyle for themselves and their descendants in a homogeneous Jewish society, will abandon their fading Zionist dreams and emigrate to the United States, where they don't have to worry about those goddamn A-rabs, and where the age-old bugaboo of anti-Semitism is no longer a factor in any American Jew's life. If I were an Israeli, THAT would be my nightmare —- the realization that Israel, instead of thriving as a virtual Western Power or fifty-first state of the USA, is fated inexorably to evolve into a small, beleaguered ethnic enclave at the eastern end of the Mediterranean — surrounded by hostile neighbors, prevented from continued expansion, no longer inspired by a vibrant ideology or sustained and reinvigorated by constant infusions of new immigrants, divided by contentious and incompatible political minority factions, threatened by an exploding and politically awakening Israeli Arab population insistent on their civil rights, and challenged by a major segment of Jewish society whom they regard as selfish, arrogant religious fanatics — with whom they share no cultural affinity and very few social values.
I think one could argue that this somber vision of the future might develop more rapidly than I have pictured above. What if the present recession results in a major reduction of charitable donations from American Jews? What if the average American taxpayer asks himself why he should continue to vote for billions of dollars of aid to a small foreign country that has no plausible claim to automatic charity? What if American and Israeli concepts of how to deal with local and international security threats continue to diverge, to the point where public criticism of Israel actions such as the recent Gaza invasion becomes generally accepted in the U.S? What if Israel, in a desperate effort to dramatize its relevance to the United States, and to restore its image as a champion of America's strategic interests, were to take some foolish action (such as attacking Iran) that plunged the United States into another unnecessary war, and were seen to have radically exacerbated the world financial crisis? In those not-farfetched circumstances, I can see Israel suddenly being recognized as a strategic liability to the United States rather than an asset — an evaluation that many Americans, especially military, academic and diplomatic experts in Middle East affairs, would already subscribe to even today.
I can think of many other such developments that in the period immediately ahead could accelerate the erosion of that "special relationship" with America on which Israel's military, political, economic and spiritual prosperity and survival heavily depend. Existential threat? You betcha, as they say in Alaska.
Ray Close
Phil Weiss: Wonderful statement. They say "you betcha" in the midwest too. Benny Morris said we attacked Gaza because we felt our illegitimacy growing in the eyes of the world. Mearsheimer has focused on the reverse aliyah problem: Jews leaving Israel for the U.S. It's huge. Notice the great sadness in this note. The instability of the Israeli dream of itself, and of the American dream of Israel, has become a crisis through the election of a minority here even as Israelis elevate a racist, and through the post-Iraq awareness in the U.S. that we have been sold an ideological bill of goods by neocons with dual-loyalty issues. The most prescient thing in this note may be Close's feeling that it will all happen fast, not slow. It's like Mike Campbell's answer on how he went bankrupt in The Sun Also Rises: "Gradually.. then suddenly." I believe that will describe the American awakening here. Our politics are just too dynamic and impatient.
"I believe that [gradually.. then suddenly] will describe the American awakening here. Our politics are just too dynamic and impatient."
I agree. Much or most of the Lobby's influence is based on fear. The dissolution of this fear, perhaps triggered by a major espionage scandal, might cause the Lobby to lose majority support in Congress. If they can't corral more than half of legislators, then the American government will restart putting America first. Another possibility is that attacking an opposing candidate's dual loyalty might become a viable political tactic. Then it's bandwagon time.
Anyone know the status of the Rosen and Weissman trial? It's already been postponed at least five times. How much longer can Judge Ellis stall?
Certainly, as American's become less and less educated, they will fall into the fascist trap of isolationism which screwed the US during the 30's.
When the US falls to that level of idiocy, support for Israel will diminish.
But by that time, the US may be dependant on aid from Israel.
There may be "great sadness" here, but there's also wishful thinking. A massive–and decently publicized–exodus of educated Israelis is what's needed to break the impasse. Because, as I see it, there's nothing in this election which guarantees that we won't be seeing more of the same on what is laughably called the "peace process." Mitchell is just the guy needed to help Israel drag its feet, and Obama has better things to do than worry about the Palestinians.
My knowledge of Yiddish is scanty, just enough to get by, but I think the word "mishegoss" would be the most apt to describe the American relation to Israel.
Why is there an assumption that America should welcome Israeli emigres with open arms? If Israel and America aren't a fit, why should anyone believe that Israelis have a place in America? I don't wish anyone harm, but enough is enough!
chris berel's totally lame Hasbara response says everything. His response amounts to a concession that reality has finally penetrated the USA–it's analogous to the sub-prime bubble burst, followed on its heels by a kleig light on Wall Street, the banksters, then Madoff.
Problem for Hasbara ilk is that Americans are becoming more and more educated. The "clean break" neocon picture has become more and more dirty. The USA is waking up. Israel is stuck in its own propaganda. Iraq, Gaza, the source of why the USA needs to bailout Wall St et al,
is leveraging up the total awakening of everybody but Joe The Plumber and Pallin types.
The USA dependent on Israel aid? Since when did the beggar afford aid to the passer-by who puts change in the beggar's tin cup?
LOL
What I would dread is not that "a large number of sophisticated Israelis, particularly those who feel the deepest affinity with America" would emigrate to America if Israel began to collapse, but that a huge number of Shasniks, Likudniks, Haredim and Liebermanites would. Then the USA would have a situation similar to what France experienced after Algerian independence when the south of France filled up with revanchist Pied Noir. Remember the OAS?
Mr Ray Close writes: Israel is not an American aircraft carrier that protects US strategic interests in the whole region; that Israel is not the final line of defence against the threat of nuclear attack by dangerously unstable governments bent on destruction of Homeland America.
First off, I live in the United States, not "Homeland America." If we're going to use that type of rhetoric let's get it right: "Das Vaterland."
What nation or entity in the Middle East are we supposed to fear because it's planning a "nuclear attack" on the United States? Would that be Pakistan? Israel perhaps? Mr Close cannot mean Iran. That country does not even possess a nuclear weapon and if it did the Iranians would certainly not commit national suicide by exploding it against the United States.
Speaking of Iran: From an economic, political and strategic perspective it's rather difficult to argue that Israel is more valuable to the United States than is Iran. It makes more sense that the USA should stop pouting about the 1979 Revolution and get on with the task of cultivating a close relationship with the Persians. The Americans do not need a land-based aircraft carrier in the region. We have plenty of those at sea already, round the world. The Israelis are big boys, they can take care of themselves. It's time for them to learn to play well with others and stop leaning on the USA to settle their disputes and serve as the older brother they can call when things aren't going their way. Israel has its national interests and America has its national interests. The two are not identical.
Iranians, as muslims, do not seem to shy from suicide if they think it will kill an enemy.
The Israelis are fully capable of taking care of their problems. They just can't justify it morally. That is why the US helps.
islamic fascist nations have no moral problems in justifying genocide. Just look at Saddam's Iraq and the Sudan.
Israelis — sophisticated and unsophisticated — are soley responsible for the death of the two-state solution. They chose to remain deaf, dumb and blind about the horrible injustices imposed on Palestinians by their government and now they plan to abandon ship? Sorry, stay home and deal with the consequences.
The past 40 years or so Israelis have ceded all authority to successive governments, saying — in effect — protect us at all costs so we can get rich and live an easy life. Well, the time for two states has run out and Israelis must begin facing up to their failure and start imagining their lives in a state where Israelis and Palestinians live under equal protection of the law. If not, the only alternative is an apartheid state in all of Israel, not just the West Bank. If Israelis think they're hated now, particularly in Europe, they'll find no open doors when they try to flee an apartheid Israel. Just ask South Africans.
"I can see Israel suddenly being recognized as a strategic liability to the United States rather than an asset — an evaluation that many Americans, especially military, academic and diplomatic experts in Middle East affairs, would already subscribe to even today."'>>>
Israel has always been a liability to the US…I challenge anyone to find even one example of Israel being of any use in any manner to the US.
There aren't any…I know. I have looked for 7 years for some example of support for Israel benefiting the US. There is
nothing…it been a drag and a cancer on all US relations.
But don't take my word for it…go the Presidential Libraries and see what all the former presidents had to say about Israel in their private papers and conversations.
A few months back, I saw a rash of articles about Jewish groups offering Jewish families $50k to move to small towns in the South. I hope these groups don't have ideas of flooding us with a bunch of Zionuts. We have plenty of problems as it is without adding to the list!
When the US falls to that level of idiocy, support for Israel will diminish.
Berel's comment on this point must be taken seriously. No one has more experience plumbing the depths of idiocy than he.
*EXCERPT FROM "Will Obama Break the Law for Israel's Sake?" by Grant Smith @ antiwar.com (02/11/09):
Israel possesses an arsenal of at least 150 nuclear weapons. Why does Obama trot out the discredited policy of "strategic ambiguity" – in which Israeli and U.S. officials officially refuse to confirm or deny the existence Israeli nuclear weapons – at this early moment? For one reason alone: to break the law. 1976 Symington Amendment prohibits most U.S. foreign aid to any country found trafficking in nuclear enrichment equipment or technology outside international safeguards. Israel has never signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). If U.S. presidents complied with the Symington Amendment, they would not deliver yearly aid packages to Israel totaling billions of dollars. Presidents make-believe that Israeli nuclear weapons don't exist so Congress can legally continue shoveling the lion's share of the U.S. foreign aid budget to Israel.
SOURCE – link to antiwar.com
*MY MEAGER CONTRIBUTION – Supreme Court Justice Louis D. Brandeis elaborated in Olmstead v. United States (1928): "In a government of law, the existence of the government will be imperiled if it fails to observe the law scrupulously. Our government is the potent, the omnipresent teacher. For good or for ill, it teaches the whole people by example. Crime is contagious. If the government becomes a lawbreaker, it breeds contempt for the law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy."
Speaking of Iran: From an economic, political and strategic perspective it's rather difficult to argue that Israel is more valuable to the United States than is Iran. It makes more sense that the USA should stop pouting about the 1979 Revolution and get on with the task of cultivating a close relationship with the Persians.
Absolutely correct. Establishing relations with Iran while simultaneously decreasing involvement with Israel is the best approach to take going forward, as it will open up all sorts of avenues on the world stage for America to partake in.
And, it will be nice to work with a saner bunch of people in the Iranians, than the years of kowtowing to the warmongering Israelis.
Chris Berel: Iranians, as muslims, do not seem to shy from suicide if they think it will kill an enemy.
That would apply to the Shintos in Japan as well then. The Japanese fielded an entire air corps of individuals who served as kamikaze pilots during the Second World War. However when faced with the complete elimination of the Japanese population and culture the leadership in Japan chose to surrender instead. There are willing kamikazes amongst every ethnic/religious/national group. That does not imply that an entire civilisation is eager to sacrifce itself. Indeed, the kamikaze is a manifestation of desperation and the national will to survive. Persia has been in existence for close to 3000 years, it's not likely the Iranians are going to invite their own total and final destruction in some vainglorious attack on the United States or another well armed nuclear state, Israel.
Chris Berel: The Israelis are fully capable of taking care of their problems. They just can't justify it morally.
The Israelis didn't seem to have a problem morally justifying their blood-lust in the Gaza Ghetto attacks and the subsequent invasion.
Chris Berel: islamic fascist nations have no moral problems in justifying genocide. Just look at Saddam's Iraq and the Sudan.
Or again, we can look at the Israelis in Gaza.
Good post Dickerson. I have saved it.
Even if the pieds noirs caused some problems in France after they fled to that country, in the long run everyone was better off for their having left Algeria: the Moslems in Algeria, even if they're not well governed and have to face civil war, are at least not tyrannized over by foreigners; France is no longer forced by politics to pursue policies that antagonize the whole Moslem world; and even the pieds noirs now have better lives in France than they ever had in Algeria.
Dimitrijevic, you are correct! An objective review of Iran, its culture, and its history since and including the 20th Century compels the realization
that, compared to Israel, the USA has been backing the wrong nation–at the very least, since the end of the Cold War. The mote in the USA leadership's eye, blinding to the truth, is something the USA made itself, the Shah puppet regime. As the only super power, the USA should be able to see how much wonderful
an Iranian-USA partnership would be.
Israel supported the apartheid regime of S Africa way after the USA and much of the world commenced shunning it. Connect the dots.
Israel's interests is not always compatible with USA interests or highest declared principles. The world has never looked to Israel for
direction, but they have, and much of it still does, to the USA. Israel's POV is much to selfish to use as a model on earth. You don't need any religion to know that.
Chris Berel: The Israelis are fully capable of taking care of their problems. They just can't justify it morally.
Bingo! Small caveat: They really are not fully capable–they could not do it without massive dollars and UN vetos courtesy of the USA.
Chris hit on exactly why every moral American should work toward getting un-enmeshed with the Israel right or wrong sickness.
The whole world is actually not contained in the Torah or Talmud. Gee, what a lightening bolt on the road to Damascus. So, what do we do with the Bush-Pallin end-timers?
Jaysus H Christ…I'm starting to think this blog is not so much anti-Israel as it is a propaganda organ for Iran.
Suzanne – Who cares what you think? It is so often beyond wrong that it's quite remarkable.