Gustav Ranis, Yale professor of international economics, at YaleGlobal:
It is often conveniently forgotten that Hamas won the election in Gaza fair and square. Admittedly, the US has labeled Hamas a terrorist organization and refused to deal with it, but this was true of the Stern Gang as well before the creation of Israel. It is relevant to recall that Obama wisely pointed out, both during the presidential campaign and since, that the US must talk to its enemies, not just its friends, to make progress.
Bringing Hamas into negotiations, both intra-Palestinian and with Israel, will undoubtedly raise hackles both in Israel, which already distrusts Obama, and in the US, where both the evangelicals and the Jewish lobby strive to out-hawk Netanyahu. It is hard to believe that it’s impossible to convince Israelis that a policy of relying on force and standing pat is bound to be short-lived. Demography and the march of competitive technology militate against Israel over time, and so is the fact that Egypt and Saudi Arabia, possibly Jordan as well, are bound to become more radicalized once current leaders move on. Israel must realize that maintaining its current position of standing firm can eventually only culminate in a slide towards an unacceptable one-state solution.
As to the US, there are signs that rank-and-file Jews, in contrast to leadership voices, while still supportive of Israel, are ready to criticize policies when they appear detrimental to Israel’s own long-term security interests. … General David Petraeus recently pointed out that US ability to win over moderates in the Muslim world is endangered by an inability to settle this conflict equitably.
The possibility that Israel could become a liability rather than an asset for the US is no longer viewed as so farfetched.
It is time for those tepid indirect talks between the principals, apparently going on fitfully despite recent events, to morph into direct talks. The Arab League has just urged this on both sides. Even when a situation looks hopeless, tensions can ease, as was demonstrated in Northern Ireland. And a determined Quartet demarche, with the US in the lead, could be extremely helpful right now.
