This is interesting. Pat Caddell lately published a poll of American Jewish attitudes that suggests that while foreign policy is not their first concern politically, they are very conservative on Israel/Palestine. Then liberal bloggers at the Washington Post sandbagged the poll's methodology, as Commentary reports, because the poll sure seems sloppy, also the liberals don't want to believe that Jews are abandoning Obama:
The poll — which found that only 42 percent of Jewish Americans would vote for Obama in 2012 – stirred controversy because it was released at a time when Obama has been trying to downplay the perception he’s losing Jewish support....
[one] major criticism [is that the poll] allegedly had a skewed sample.... only 65 percent of their poll respondents said they voted for Obama in 2008, which conflicts with the exit polling data claiming 79 percent of Jews voted for him. Caddell said the sample’s demographics were solid, but it’s common for many people not to admit voting for a president when he becomes less popular.
I am with Commentary on this one. I think American Jews are very conservative on Israel/Palestine stuff. We can differ on how conservative-- an earlier poll said that 58 percent were against dividing Jerusalem, this one says 73 percent-- but intolerance is intolerance; and again I say, the lack of a Palestinian state, 63 years after it was promised to 'em, is an American Jewish achievement.
From the poll:
A.An overwhelming majority (81% to 8%) disapproves of the U.N. voting to declare a Palestinian state that refuses to renounce terrorists and is linked to terrorist organizations. [i.e., they're against Hamas-Fatah reconciliation].
B.Four in five (81%) are against Israel being forced to return to its pre-1967 borders, which were susceptible to attack.
C.Nearly three-quarters (73%) believe Jerusalem should remain the undivided capital of Israel. Only 8% thinks the United States should force Israel to give parts of Jerusalem, including Christian and Jewish holy sites, to the Palestinian Authority.
D.Two-thirds (64%) think that if the Palestinian Authority were given their own state in the West Bank, part of Jerusalem, and Gaza, they would continue their campaign of terror to destroy Israel. Only 16% thinks they would live peacefully with Israel.
E. An overwhelming majority (88% to 5) agrees with the position that before the Palestinian Authority is given their own country, they must first recognize Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state.
F.American Jewish voters are strongly favorable to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (65% favorable to 20% unfavorable).
If the above quotes are any indication of how they framed the questions in the poll, then it absolutely is worthless. Leading questions are poll poison. The questions would have to be much more neutral than that in order to prompt honest responses from the people polled.
Think about it. When asked “Do you support X, if X does not renounce terrorism committed by Y,” people are much less likely to select the response. “Yes, I support X,” regardless of what they know about the issue. You’re tipping them off on what you want them to say and many people (probably a majority in the US) are highly susceptible to this type of thing. We’re used to this type of thing here. “Taxes are very bad. Do you support raising taxes?”
It’s the equivalent of asking “Do you support the Israeli construction of a wall in order to steal land?” Regardless of whether people like the separation wall, very few people are going to say yes to that poll question, even if they agree with having the wall.
The article in Commentary essential agrees with this when it notes that people are less likely to admit that they voted for a president who has become unpopular. People lie to pollsters.
Agree with Haytham.
I also agree with Haytham. Its a push poll.
tree: Ah, push poll…exactly the term I was racking my brain for. Thank you.
hophmi:
First time for everything, I guess.
If memory serves wrt “Four in five (81%) are against Israel being forced to return to its pre-1967 borders, which were susceptible to attack.” The question was loaded because it described those borders as being in some places making Israel only 8 miles wide.
I can imagine how the other poll questions were loaded.
“Pat Caddell lately published a poll of American Jewish attitudes that suggests that while foreign policy is not their first concern politically, they are very conservative on Israel/Palestine. ”
I don’t see how you can conclude that from this poll. I think American Jewish attitudes are in line with broader American attitudes on the conflict. American Jews are more conservative on Israel than they are on other issues, but I would say they are moderate on Israel/Palestine, not very conservative.
It is true that only 42% of American Jews would vote for Obama today. It is also true he has a 65% approval rating, which suggests that in the end, it’s going to be way higher that 42%.
None of these finding indicate that the American Jewish community is “very conservative” on Israel, and several clearly indicate the questions were calibrated to draw the responses they drew.
“A.An overwhelming majority (81% to 8%) disapproves of the U.N. voting to declare a Palestinian state that refuses to renounce terrorists and is linked to terrorist organizations. [i.e., they're against Hamas-Fatah reconciliation].”
Take out everything after Palestinian state and it might be a fair question. Nevertheless, these numbers are most likely not different from the rest of the country. In fact, I wonder, given the form of the question, whether the spread might be even more pronounced in the general population.
“B.Four in five (81%) are against Israel being forced to return to its pre-1967 borders, which were susceptible to attack.”
Again, you can see the bias in the question – use of words like “forced” and “susceptible to attack.” And again, I doubt the general population would answer differently.
“C.Nearly three-quarters (73%) believe Jerusalem should remain the undivided capital of Israel. Only 8% thinks the United States should force Israel to give parts of Jerusalem, including Christian and Jewish holy sites, to the Palestinian Authority.”
I can tell you right now that it’s almost certainly not the case that 73% of American Jews are against “dividing Jerusalem,” whatever that concept means. It’s an extremely shallow question, particularly in the abstract, both because “dividing Jerusalem” is not a well-defined concept and because in the context of a peace agreement, most American Jews will support dividing Jerusalem.
And again, it appears that the question was calibrated to get a certain answer. The question was whether Israel should be “forced” to give parts of Jerusalem including Christian and Jewish holy sites to the Palestinian Authority. Do you think that if I’m against handing over the Western Wall, but for handing over Abu Dis and the rest of the parts of East Jerusalem that are largely Palestinian populated I’m against dividing Jerusalem?
And anyway, aren’t you against a divided Jerusalem?
“D.Two-thirds (64%) think that if the Palestinian Authority were given their own state in the West Bank, part of Jerusalem, and Gaza, they would continue their campaign of terror to destroy Israel. Only 16% thinks they would live peacefully with Israel.”
OK, nothing conservative about that opinion, and again, a biased question.
“E. An overwhelming majority (88% to 5) agrees with the position that before the Palestinian Authority is given their own country, they must first recognize Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state.”
Once again, an opinion stated by President Obama, the UN and the Quartet. Not a very conservative opinion.
“F.American Jewish voters are strongly favorable to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (65% favorable to 20% unfavorable).”
The only possible opinion that could be spun as conservative. But a shallow one, and one not likely based on Netanyahu’s actual political positions but on his speech to Congress, where he was warmly received.
Honestly Phil, it’s cynical to use an obviously biased conservative poll to make your point.
“I think American Jewish attitudes are in line with broader American attitudes on the conflict.”
No! What a surprise! But, you being a Zionist and all, we are obligated to accept whatever you say about Jews and Jewish attitudes. After all, you own it.
Interesting how a Zionist Israeli knows all about the attitudes and opinions of non-Jewish Americans. After all, he owns them too.
Pat Caddell should be ashamed of himself. This is the worst kind of push polling I’ve ever seen. This should be a case study in Poly Sci classes. As for what Commentary said you can tease out the info in the crosstabs. Many of the questions are bimodal based on party identification. I suspect a multi-variate analysis which controlled for Jew vs. Gentile would show that party identification trumps Jewish identity on many of these questions. There’s that much difference between Republican and Democratic Jews. Those that are not bimodal are really, really leading.
Here’s the Jerusalem questions:
Should Jerusalem remain the undivided capital of Israel or should the United States force Israel to give parts of Jerusalem, including Christian and Jewish holy sites, to the Palestinian Authority? Jerusalem should remain the undivided capital of Israel. OR, The United States should force Israel to give parts of Jerusalem, including Christian and Jewish holy sites, to the Palestinian Authority.
Here’s the re-elect question for Obama. Note how his position on right of return is misrepresented:
Considering what President Obama has proposed for Israel just over a year before his 2012 re-election campaign – a return to the 1967 borders, dividing Jerusalem, and allowing the right of return for Palestinian Arabs to Israel – how concerned would you be about President Obama’s policies towards Israel if he were re-elected and did not have to worry about another election?
This is a completely worthless poll and the bloggers on WaPo are more than justified in panning it.
Jeez, the poll makers didn’t even have the minimal honesty to say Obama said the peace process should use the ’67 borders as a starting place for negotiating borders to be agreed upon.
I have a question is this taken seriously in the Jewish community or just fringe wacko stuff? This is classic push poll.
If reports are true that Iran has plans to place missiles in Venezuela, would you approve or disapprove of the following? “If economic and diplomatic sanctions on Venezuela do not work, we should use the American military to destroy the bases.”
Republicans approve 53/22 and Democrats are split 37/39.
“I have a question is this taken seriously in the Jewish community or just fringe wacko stuff?”
Well, as soon as we figure out what exactly (or even aproximately) “the Jewish community” means, we could start to figure it out.
“and again I say, the lack of a Palestinian state, 63 years after it was promised to ‘em, is an American Jewish achievement.”
Whereas I think of it as Palestinian militancy’s achievement.
link to jpost.com
This poll also came out today.
Likely biased methodology. None of the polls can be relied to be “facts”.
Atta boy, Witty, keep ignoring the power in “power politics.”
Abridged Witty: “Blame the Arabs! For EVERYTHING!”
You know it’s funny to watch somebody who has an almost orgasmic reaction to the fruits of Zionist militancy like you do, Witty, condemn anyone else who’s even a mere fraction as militant as your “precious jewel.” What, does your davidka fire doves? Right.
The very very vast majority of Jews desire a peace, and have supported the two-state solution at 67 borders.
The frustration of that not even being conditionally accepted by Hamas (who did win the 2006 Palestinian elections), shifted Israeli and American Jewish opinion.
You have to have noted a change in American Jewish opinion, from that willingness to make peace to less. What do you think contributed to that?
What might have caused it?
You think that Jews are just more racist now, more privileged, more complacent?
Let me add another question. Do you think that YOU personally might have caused that in some respect?
That might have been true in the past, but no longer.
1. Bibbi was elected to office on a platform rejecting the 2ss.
2. When Bibbi rejected the 1967 borders, his approval ratings went up in Israel.
The vast majority of Jews desire peace? And that’s why Israel bombed the crap out of Gaza? And Lebanon? And Gaza, again? And again and again and again and pretty much continuously for years? And what percentage of Jewish community leaders and media commentators supported the invasion of Iraq?
Yeah, bullshit, Witty.
It is basically going to boil down to US Jews + Christian Rapturists + Zionists versus 6 billion people.
Just as the US is wrong on climate collapse, healthcare and how to run transport systems, it is wrong on Palestine.
RE: “Nearly three-quarters (73%) believe Jerusalem should remain the undivided capital of Israel. Only 8% thinks the United States should force Israel to give parts of Jerusalem, including Christian and Jewish holy sites, to the Palestinian Authority.” – Caddell poll
MY COMMENT: By recently giving the Simon Wiesenthal Center the go-ahead to begin digging the foundation of its so-called Museum of Tolerance on the site of Jerusalem’s Mamilla cemetery, Israel has clearly demonstrated that it cannot be entrusted with the care of Jerusalem. Among other reasons, Israel lacks the requisite degree of “tolerance” and good judgement.
The undivided city of Jerusalem should be given international status and protected from this type of pernicious development/desecration.
It can still serve as the capital of Israel and Palestine.
P.S. Please help me. Please! Can anyone recommend a good, cheap cosmetic surgeon to tighten up the skin on my face? I’m really desperate to improve my image. The survival of my empire might very well depend upon it.