Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev and Shimon Peres during a visit to the Azerbaijani capital Baku, June, 2009. (Photo: AP)
Mark Perry at Foreign Policy says that Israel has bought an airfield, an entire country:
According to several high-level sources I've spoken with inside the U.S. government, Obama administration officials now believe that the "submerged" aspect of the Israeli-Azerbaijani alliance -- the security cooperation between the two countries -- is heightening the risks of an Israeli strike on Iran.
In particular, four senior diplomats and military intelligence officers say that the United States has concluded that Israel has recently been granted access to airbases on Iran's northern border. To do what, exactly, is not clear. "The Israelis have bought an airfield," a senior administration official told me in early February, "and the airfield is called Azerbaijan."
Some of the backstory from Perry:
In 2009, the deputy chief of mission of the U.S. embassy in Baku, Donald Lu, sent a cable to the State Department's headquarters in Foggy Bottom titled "Azerbaijan's discreet symbiosis with Israel." The memo, later released by WikiLeaks, quotes Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev as describing his country's relationship with the Jewish state as an iceberg: "nine-tenths of it is below the surface."
But at Haaretz, Amir Oren says that Israel has put off an attack until 2013 because of a U.S. analysis showing that Iranian counterattack would kill 200 Americans at once. Oren doesn't say where these Americans would die, but that the analysis has scotched Israeli plans:
According to a war simulation conducted by the U.S. Central Command, the Iranians could kill 200 Americans with a single missile response to an Israeli attack. An investigative committee would not spare any admiral or general, minister or president. The meaning of this U.S. scenario is that the blood of these 200 would be on Israel's hands.
Back to the war-is-likely analysis. Here is Noam Sheizaf in a piece of March 7 that others have since quoted, saying that Israeli leaders have dug themselves in with their war talk. They have to attack Iran now because if they don't it will destroy their streetcred in the Middle East. His bold:
The conduct of the Israeli leadership will leave it in a position where it must attack Iran, even if it has to do it on its own, and even if the chances of meaningful success are limited at best.
Suppose Ehud Barak’s deadline passes, and Iran continues to enrich uranium. What then? Considering the show Netanyahu and Barak just put on, if Israel doesn’t attack, who would take any of their claims seriously from now on? If nothing happens in a year from now, and the Iranian regime continues its policy of opacity – without actually developing a bomb, but marching toward creating the capability to assemble one – would the hollow threats by the Israel leadership just make it clear to Iran that Israel and its allies don’t have the desire or the capability to stop it? Would other countries in the region get the same message? From the perspective of the Israeli leadership, this might be seen as a worse outcome even than a failed attack. At that moment, the rational choice for Israeli leadership would be to attack. Even if the threats were an act to begin with, at a certain point you must deliver in order not to experiance a total policy collapse.
“From the perspective of the Israeli leadership, this might be seen as a worse outcome even than a failed attack. At that moment, the rational choice for Israeli leadership would be to attack. ”
Israel needs to talk to a therapist. Has it been sleeping well recently ? Is there any stress at work?
The Iran situation is fascinating Israel’s big bad wolf schtick doesn’t seem to be effective. First time ever.
As ever, depends on what your definition of “is” is. (I loved that guy.)
Israel’s schtick is effective if it is a diversion for grabbing Area “C” and other misadventures and crimes against the Palestinians. While most of the web and MSM get diverted by these sabre rattlings ad nauseum, Bibi, Danon, and the gang continue pushing “legislation” to annex 61% of the West Bank.
When I first read that Perry piece, I thought surely this is another Borat spoof.
LogoPhere.com gives 6 very good reasons why this whole Azeri landing strip theory is ludicrous. #1 of which is the 200 Iranian fighters and thousands of missiles that would turn Azerbijan’s 8 airstrips and capitol Baki into a moonscape as soon as the first Israeli fighter showed up on a radar screen.
Even if they grab Area C, so what? What would be the difference? Palestinians can’t build there anyway. And the people ?
Say Israel is separated and hates his ex wife. He decides to sequester her house. She still lives there. What has Israel achieved ?
They seem to have this mystical belief that the land is theirs and it is happily ever after.
This is typical settler garbage
link to haaretz.com
“The Land of Israel, S.Y. Agnon wrote, is bought with suffering. And all those for whom the Land of Israel is dear and who accept the suffering with love, will have the privilege of seeing it built, he said. And may it come to pass that you, too, my children and grandchildren in Migron, as well as your friends who accept the suffering with sacrifice and love, will have the privilege of seeing it, soon and in our days, in its full splendor and glory.”
The land is going to kick them in the ass.
“If nothing happens in a year from now” As if nothing has all ready happened. How many Iranian scientist have been killed by agents working for Israel? Stuxnet, bombings…persistent harassment.
“you must deliver in order not to experience a total policy collapse” That seems to have all ready happened.
What would Israel ‘s neighbors do if Israel started acting like they had rational actors leading their country? Signed the NPT, stopped building illegal settlements, abiding by UN resolutions etc etc. Stopped being the neighborhood bully?
The Azerbaijian’s are of course denying that they gave the Israeli’s access per AFP:
link to google.com
At some point, we’re going to have to discuss the South Stream and Nabucco pipelines, the analysis of Pepe Escobar and others, and what exactly is taking place here, other than just “the Zionists want to blow up Iran,” which is not to say that “the Zionists dont want to blow up Iran,” they definitely do.
Just the other day, the Israeli Foreign Ministry, along with their counterparts in Greece and Cyprus announced a greater “strategic alliance” along with full access (post Israeli upgrades etc) to Cypriot air bases, along with joint exploration projects in the Med – which is directly tied to Azerbaijian, the pipelines and the dirty business of “state planning” that, in my opinion, goes overlooked most of the time ’round here.
link to washingtonpost.com
link to google.com
link to google.com
link to atimes.com
DAN CROWTHER- I’m with you on this one. When discussing Azerbaijan, to simply mention Israel is to miss the big picture. It should be US/Israel/NATO. The eastward expansion of US/NATO into this geo-strategically important area means that Israel is not acting alone. I provide a link to a Pepe Escobar article concerning US/NATO versus Putin and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. link to dissidentvoice.org
Also, the need for both the US and Israel to maintain “credibility” should not be underestimated. It has been a consistent theme in US foreign policy calculations. The Godfather gets his way in no small measure through intimidation. Finally, to emphasize the extent to which the empire relies upon military force, I provide a link to a Juan Cole article with a very interesting map of US bases surrounding Iran. In my opinion, if US/NATO/Israel does not achieve some significant success in regards to Iran, then the empire could unravel rapidly. link to zcommunications.org
Whenever Mondoweiss publishes a post like this, you can rely on Dan and Keith to pop up like Tweedledum and Tweedledee with their “big picture” or “strategic view” to let Israel off the hook. Because, contrary to all public appearance, big bad ol’ Uncle Sam is twisting poor Bibi’s arm to act as his regional bully boy by helping to thwart some putative Putinist pipeline through Pipelineistan (wherever that may be) or aiding the Empire in some other nebulous way.
Now perhaps I’m just simple-minded when it comes to geo-politics but I would have thought that if “Western” strategy is motivated by a fear of Iran falling into the welcoming embrace of China and Russia then it’s current policy of confrontation and embargo would seem to be somewhat, if not wholly, counter-productive. But no doubt this is my failing to see what is clearly so obvious to Dan and obviously so clear to Keith.
I can only hope that our twin strategic seers can put their heads together to write a post explaining how this really all works. What are the mechanisms by which Israel is forced to conform to this imperial agenda. Indeed who sets and coordinates this agenda. And, as a side note, how is the pantomime of Congress falling around Bibi’s knees put on?
Here at Mondoweiss, Phil Weiss and Sean McBride have provided very extensive documentation on how the neocon apparatus works and how it links into the broader pro-Zionist lobbies and networks. Really, Dan and Keith need to come up with a similarly detailed but more compelling alternative to trump this. Otherwise I’ll be forced to conclude they are just a pair of Chomskyite chumps, who wittingly or unwittingly, divert the spotlight from those who are responsible for these disastrous and immoral policies.
Wow, shots fired! hahaha.
Not sure what brought this on. Whatever else is true about what I write here, I never reply to someone else’s comments and call them names and such, insult their intelligence or mock their opinions – except for the triple e crowd, I do mock them. The Ron Paulites and the Lobby fetishists can’t say the same; don’t agree with them to the extent they want you to, you’re an idiot.
What kind of description are you looking for? Its all right in front of you. Me mentioning that the Israeli’s are proactively looking to secure energy sources, along with the rest of the world, and also expand their base of arms customers etc is in no way a ‘the lobby doesnt exist” argument. And the Nabucco/South Stream issue is a major issue, between dozens of countries – some in the middle east. How is that Mondoweiss talks about water resources all the time, but never mentions gas and other resources – seems like it might be a worthwhile topic; or maybe not.
So, there cant be anything in my post that you think is false – as all I really did was point to some articles, useful maps (perhaps) and make a comment about how this seems to be part of a overall strategy to cut off Iran from, yes, “Pipelineistan,” and integrate as many countries as possible into a energy “pact” that will be controlled by the big bosses – to include russia and china, to be sure. This all happens in broad daylight, no conspiracy necessary.
If nothing I said in my post ( and I didnt really say much) was incorrect, what’s the problem? The Israelis made formal deals with the Greek Cypriots and it comes out a day or so later that they are close with the Azerbaijiani’s – something everybody already knew. I pointed out that these two countries reside on the prospective pipeline Israel is trying to hitch its wagon to, pretty uncontroversial to me.
LIBRA- “Whenever Mondoweiss publishes a post like this, you can rely on Dan and Keith to pop up like Tweedledum and Tweedledee with their “big picture” or “strategic view” to let Israel off the hook.”
Let Israel off the hook? Obviously you are delusional. Israel is an intrinsic part of empire. Or do you deny there is an empire? Sorry if reality conflicts with your ideology, but that is your problem, not mine. Please feel free to continue your myopic focus on “the lobby” as the center of the universe, the empire a figment of Chomskyite imagination. All sorts of things going down right now, few of which originate in Tel Aviv.
And again, I find it the height of hilarity that Lobby Fetishists bash Keith as an Israel apologist, pseudo zionist or whatever, and then guys like Max Ajl – a tried and true tribalist- call him a white supremacist jew hater for his views on the same subject. Which one is it?
The fact of the matter is, Keith ( and hopefully myself) thinks for himself, and isnt going to drink the kool-aid and go full blankfort because its the conventional wisdom at mondoweiss. Sorry that facts sometimes get in the way of “Its always the Zionists, all the time”
DAN CROWTHER- Thanks, but I feel that I need to come to the defense of Max ajl and set the record straight. During our exchange, he seemed to conclude that I probably wasn’t an anti-Semite, merely stupid. Needless to say, I was greatly relieved.
HAHAAA!! What a generous guy, that Ajl.
Streetcred? The doctrine to maintain the freedom to strike anything anytime anywhere for no reason at all. What Zappa called AAAFNRAA. Recently Larry Derfner gave two instances of this doctrine here link to 972mag.com, see what he recalls of his interview with Yiftah Shapir about the attack on the syrian ‘reactor’ and on Irak’s Osirak.
Bronner’s article link to nytimes.com about the alliance between Netanyahu and Barak is rather interesting – for one it doesn’t have thedismissive attitude towards Barak as someone who’s just tagging along.
Bronner has adapted to the news about Iran’s nuclear program.
It’s easily skipped because it looks just like the standard phrase.
But, no mention about a secret nuclear program or any weaponization related work.
There is just a civilian program but that civilian program can’t be allowed
because the west believes the “goal” is to make weapons.
But, no mention about a secret nuclear program or any weaponization related work.
that’s because, thus far there is no assessment of either by the IAEA.
link to washingtonpost.com
here’s more:
link to publiceditor.blogs.nytimes.com
My point was that there is a change from suspecting(without proof) that Iran is secretly working on a bomb, to suspecting that Iran will in the future work on a bomb – while keeping the same feeling of threat.
This way the intelligence assessments of US and Israel, and now also Europe link to reuters.com are accepted and at the same time neutralized.
The problem is that the technology they have now is enough to make weapons. If you can enhance uranium to 20% enrichment, it only takes about 10% more effort, using the same centrifuges, to enrich it to weapons grade. They admit to enriching to 20%. That said, this Azerbaijan thing sounds like a big bag of hot air. They still don’t have the bombers they’d need to make the attack. As to street cred, politicians bluster in an election year, and in Israel, it’s always potentially an election year.
@ Fredblogs
Before adding comments to web sites/forums/blogs, it’s advisable not to make yourself look like an ill-informed blogger. Educate yourself @ link to princeton.edu
“The problem is that the technology they have now is enough to make weapons.”
That isn’t a problem if they are not using it to make nuclear weapons. And right now, it looks as though they aren’t and aren’t going to.
Israel has an easy out should it decide to–just declare victory and go home: say that sanctions have worked and that Iran has decided as a result to forego nuclear weapons.
A few other reasons have been given why an attack on Iran could come before Obama’s reelection
- because Obama can be bettrer controlled before reelection
- Iraq is currently without air defenses now the americans have left
- The retaliation might well be manageable. That’s Barak’s reasoning. He could well be right – from a military and short term standpoint. Iran’s offensive power is limited, as is Hezbollah’s , if they would be willing to participate at all.
- I would add that I doubt that Iran would react by making a bomb. But they would become more assertive.
According to the Iranians, Mossad has been in Azerbaijan for quite some time training Jundallah terrorists in the art of terrorism against Iranian scientists and their families.
I’d say Azeris are looking for trouble and they’re gonna get it. Iran is probably lining up thousands of missiles for special delivery to Azerbaijan the moment Israeli jets land there.
What a bunch of dunces those Azeris are. They’re asking for it.
And don’t forget about the Greeks. The economic plight of Greece seems like an opportunity for Israel to expand their borders.
Bibi: First We’ll Take Tehran, Then We’ll Take Istanbul
link to richardsilverstein.com
Chu
Oh yeah, you betcha!
Found this tucked into the middle of business live blog in the Grauni:
link to guardian.co.uk
Ramping it up already! But what a weird place to hide it.
I agreee. The Azeris are stupid if they help Israel attack Iran.
And something like 20% of Iranians are Azeri.
The ethnic Azeris in Iran seem, on the whole, to be Iranian.
The Supreme Leader, Khameini, was born in the Azeri-speaking region, and his father was an ethnic Azeri.
Ahmedinejad was a governor in the Azeri region, and speaks the language fluently. He is well regarded in the region for helping the working class Azeris.
link to iranian.com
RE: “Here is Noam Sheizaf in a piece of March 7…saying that Israeli leaders have dug themselves in with their war talk. They have to attack Iran now because if they don’t it will destroy their streetcred in the Middle East.” ~ Weiss
MY COMMENT: Please consider helping Tikkun/NSP run the following ad in major American newspapers.
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P.S. ALSO SEE: Hawks Steering Debate on How to Take on Iran, By Eric Lichtblau and Mark Landler, New York Times, 3/18/12
ENTIRE ARTICLE – link to nytimes.com
This whole scenario starts to –even “mis-linking” in the process–confuse and frighten no end. My initial optimism has gone. Am I the victim of an elaborate propaganda war?
Seems I underestimated Goldberg, hasn’t been spreading confusion his design all along? So the US and Israel basically are joined at the hips on the issue? I am invited to believe that Obama in fact has been tricking us all, while Netanyahu has been the most honest person on earth all along? Netanyhu doesn’t want in fact to unseat Obama, quite the opposite, the love each other, just as Biden loves Netanyahu, and thus can say things no one else can.
I can even locate the point were the confusion started to become unbearable, I am German after all. Mind you Babak suggested too that the real evil forces behind the urge for war against Iran are in actually the EU and the US, and whoever thinks differently is only an antisemite, blaming the old scapegoat.
If Israel attacks Iran, with or without the aid of the US military, it will become much more lucid to Americans that Iraq was more about Israeli interests than the belief that oil was the prime motivator. The elephant in the room will look a lot different to the average US citizen.
And, it’s foolish to believe that Israel stopped the attack because the claim that Iranians could kill 200 Americans with a single missile response to an Israeli attack. Israel couldn’t pull of the operation without the US involvement and now they use US citizens as their excuse, saving lives? huh… The media would use 200+ dead Americans to galvanize the public into a war with Iran. But the good side Oren states is that the Defense Department would be seeking more money to help Israel fund the Iron Dome antimissile defense system.
I’m so relieved that the Jewish state is getting an aerial electric fence to continue their land thieving and shunning of the world. I take pride in the fact that were committed to building an Israeli cocoon, because the only way to safeguard the Israelis is to put them in a giant untouchable bubble. Why don’t we construct a floating city that hovers a few kilometers above the Mediterranean? It will not only be a functional model for the world, but a symbolic act to Israelis. And if there is a second coming, technically Israel doesn’t exist in terra firma.
Just FYI, be careful about this claim:
Very little real information has come out yet about that exercise, but from the New York Times report, the “200 killed” may well have just been a starting condition of the exercise, rather than an outcome (i.e. “here’s your scenario: Israel bomb Iran, Iran attacks and sinks a US frigate, President gives you the green light to respond: go.”). Additionally, that exercise was a command-and-control exercise, not a political/strategic wargaming exercise.
It’s not a big deal, I’d just be careful reading too much into it as I expect soon you’ll see new reports on that exercise and how it “predicted” or “proved” something else the leaker wanted to prove.
It’
Nobody will attack Iran …, openly.
The big plan is for Israel to gain control of the whole east coast of the Mediterranean by segmenting Lebanon and Syria. Once that happens, Israel ‘owns’ the whole oil / gas field just off the coast and the energy would be controlled by ‘a safe pair of hands’. The attack on Iran would cripple supplies to Hezbollah enabling Lebanon to be trashed, as well as destabilizing Iran. It would also raise oil / gas prices dramatically, probably to $250 a barrel, the target figure in a recent wargame (including ex-BP hands) at the 2012 Herzilya conference. The Russian base at Tartus has been crucial in stopping the regime change planned for Syria – for the time being at least. Follow the money – the world becomes desperate for oil and oooh look Israel just happens to have plenty of gas to sell.
…Yes the Oded Yinon stategy for Israel
link to cosmos.ucc.ie
mentioned in the French overview of the current situation in Syria
link to scribd.com
Ha! I figured this out myself while looking at a map. Though, I thought that the secret airfield would be in Turkmenistan.
Azerbaijan needs to look at the wider picture for it’s own sake. It is only making enemies of Iran with this move – and just about everybody else in the region.
“Defense Department would be seeking more money to help Israel fund the Iron Dome antimissile defense system. ”
They are building walls to surround the entire country
Isolation. Where is the nearest ally? 500 miles away?
Everyone is going to hate them and they are getting ready for it
link to guardian.co.uk
It goes back to the days of the yishuv
link to shimur.org
It would be really funny if Rev Nachman of Brasov could come back and see what a mess his people have made of the holy land. I’m sure he’d laugh at their ineptitude.
This Azeri airfield story has been out there for some time. It really does not make much military sense. Look at a map. The only ways for Israel to fly there and out is over Turkish or Iranian airspace (to avoid them would require a flight over Eastern Europe, the Black Sea and Georgia, not too practical). Once on the ground the airports would be in missile range of the Iranians. If the airport is in Southern Azerbijan, it would he highly tempting for the Iranians to attack it with ground forces (as would be their right under the rules of war).
In fact, I suspect that ground invasion would not be opposed by the Russians and who knows, maybe they would join in themselves to correct a geopolitical thorn in their side. The Azeris must have cut some kind of deal with the Israelis in exchange for big dollars from international Zionists but they couldn’t possibly be dumb enough to actually allow Israel to draw it into war with Iran.
Actuall, there may be more to this than meets the eye. Ever since Azerbaidjan gained its statehood status after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, strong cultural, economic and regional links have tied it to Iran. Religious affinities have encouraged the process. The Muslim population is approximately 85% Shi’a and 15% Sunni; differences traditionally have not been defined sharply. Most Shias are adherents of orthodox Ithna Ashari school of Shi’a Islam (twelver). But very recently, relations between Iran and its neighbor have soured significantly over allegations that the Azeri government provided assistance to Israel in the attacks and deaths of several of their nuclear scientists. One must question the timely convenience of such a rift between two regional entities, once so friendly, in light of the ongoing hysterical call to bomb Iran’s nuclear plants….
“Someone counts on using the Iranian Azerbaijanis against the Islamic republic. However, these attempts have had and will have little success. The Azeri factor in Iran became a state issue. The Iranian Azeris simply have no reasons for any serious discontent. The spiritual leader of the Islamic Republic is their representative. Moreover, half of the Iran’s elite is Azerbaijanis who strongly support the leadership of their country…..”
link to english.pravda.ru
With the knowledge that they can’t compete with US and Israeli air power, the Iranians have invested heavily in anti-ship missiles against which only the ships with the most sophisticated defences will survive attacks in the Persian Gulf. It would appear that the 200 deaths referred to in the article would be as a result of an attack on a single US ship – if the commitment to attack a US ship is made, why is the assumption made that only a single ship would be involved – the Iranians have thousands of these super-sonic missiles.
link to rense.com
After Pres. Obama’s clear statements of non-support for an Israeli attack and now the MSM correctly reporting that the reason for attacking is solely to deter the possibility of preparation for a nuclear weapon program, the Israelis know that if it starts a war, it will bear sole responsibility for the consequences – the blame for the devastating economic results, but more importantly, the outrage over the loss of American soldiers’ lives in a war fought only for Israeli interests, will cause serious damage to the “special relationship” and may well increase world-wide anti-semitism.
why is the assumption made that only a single ship would be involved – the Iranians have thousands of these super-sonic missiles.
Good question. On small correction: they have hundreds of the super-sonic missiles, the exocets, of which they may have close to a thousand are sub-sonic.
@ Chet,
Q: the outrage over the loss of American soldiers’ lives in a war fought only for Israeli interests,
R: The dead USS Liberty sailors disagree with your notion link to ussliberty.org
It is a conjecture if Iran has most deadly anti-ship missiles. Russians do have missiles that approach the target on supersonic speed and zigzaging: no countermeasure is known. Naval vessels have ammunition stores and are prone to spectacular explosions, as happened to a South Korean vessels. A salvo of silkworms can make a short work even from an aircraft carrier.
Quite importantly, China and Russia may “veto” a retaliation on a JUSTIFIED attack by Iran. They can issue threats that cannot be easily ignored, but they would need to perceive a dire need. What commentators in the West overlook is “Asian Monroe” perspective. Big Asian countries do not cherish Western maritime powers floating around and “replacing regimes” here and there. Here I mean China, Russia, Pakistan, India, also Turkey, plus lesser countries in their collective orbit.
By the way, Azerbaijan needs to check the map in respect to Iran as much as Canadians need to find USA. It is by the graciousness of Iran that Azerbaijan can reach its Nakhichevan province. Additionally, wrathful Iran together with Armenia (I think, still in state of war with Azerbaijan) can smoothly cut the pipeline from Azerbaijan west and the country would be effectively under siege. Lastly, the fate of Georgia is keenly known.
Piotr, but it not conjecture that they have the sunburn-S-22. They bought those from the Russians a decade back. This is the mach 1.8 missile, it is not known if they have the yakhonts, the mach 2.4 version that also has greater range.
This is how you [successfully] manipulate whatever you desire:
“The intelligence and facts are being fixed around the policy.” MI6 [UK], 2005
link to atimes.com
Daniel that worked in 2003. The US military and intelligence are a little more wary today. They got snookered in 2002 when a small group of neocons inside the Pentagon successfully moved policy for war against Iraq. In fact, the 2007 NIE statement that concluded that Iran was not developing nuclear weapons represented a real bureaucratic rebellion by professional spooks and military against the neocon political intervention . General Franks realized he had been had when he described one of the most influential neocons as:
General Tommy Franks, who led both the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan and the Iraq War, once called Feith “the dumbest fucking guy on the planet.” (from wikipedia).
Imagine his frustration arguing with Feith, who as a true blue Zionist, could ignore facts and simply spout party line.
In any case, I do believe that some things have changed inside intelligence and the military.
6/8/1967 USS Liberty subjected to coordinated attack. After 5 hours of surveilance by Israeli’s planes. at least ten sorties killed 10 or 11 sailors. All antena’s of this spy ship blown off. Hundreds or rocket holes in the ship. Ship was doused in napalm. Subsequent to the Mirage attack, 3 torpedo boats appeared. One torpedo hit the underwater section holding the operators of the spy equipment. 24 AMerican died in that hold. All total 34 dead. 171 wounded. While the naplam was being extinguished the torpedo boats machined gunned the sailors. Abandon Ship was signaled but withdrawn. Three life rafts for the most severly wounded were set out. But the Israeli boats destroyed them. A war crime. There was a cover up investigation. Sailors were ordered not to speak about the masacre. After 15 years the survivors began the effort to publicize the truth. On June 9 Israel attacked Syria.
The propaganda drivel from Israel is becoming ever more outlandish and absurd, and this *is* diminishing what little credibility they had. As for the idea that Israel will attack to maintain the credibility of the their constant stream of threats, I would point out that they already lost their invincibility status in 2006.
The main target of all this propaganda is of course the US, not Iran.
I think the guess that the scenario with 200 US casualties refers to a missile strike on a ship is probably right. The scenario is a little optimistic, since the US has many ships in the Gulf and Iran has enough missiles to overwhelm the most sophisticated countermeasures just through weight of numbers. Maybe they would only attack a single ship, but maybe they would attack all shipping, in which case the 200 number would be a dramatic understatement.