Secretary of State Kerry is desperate to make an announcement of renewed talks, any talks. As ever, his #1 concern is looking good (literally and figuratively). Prime Minister Netanyahu just wants Kerry off his back because he is anguished over the just-announced EU sanctions which will penalize Israeli institutions that support the settlement enterprise. If the sanctions actually take effect, he will look weak and, even worse, he could be viewed as having produced the “delegitimization” of the occupation.
This is what I think happened:
Kerry: Bibi, my dear friend, please do me a solid. Just let me announce negotiations.
Bibi: Beat it, geezer. You are getting on my nerves.
Kerry: Thanks a lot. My wife is sick and you can’t even help a brother out.
Bibi: No way.
Kerry: Uh, you know those EU sanctions?
Bibi: I’m surprised you would mention them. You did fuck-all to make them go away.
Kerry: Well, we could do something.
Bibi: You mean…
Kerry: I mean you agree to a non-binding peace talks formula. Actually, you agree to nothing. You just agree to allow the United States to state that we favor negotiations based on the ’67 lines which, by the way, has always been our position although you don’t let us say it.
Bibi: But we don’t have to agree that the ’67 borders have any validity.
Kerry: No, of course not. No, but you allow us to say it.
Bibi: I don’t know if I can permit that. Wait… Can you also say that the United States accepts the position that Israel be recognized “as a Jewish state.” That is AIPAC’s position too and you do have elections coming up, my friend.
Kerry: That isn’t a problem. The donors will love that. Also, Susan Rice, Samantha Power and your next senator, I mean our next Democratic senator, Cory Booker, want us to say that,
Bibi: I love Cory. Anyway, if we agree to that, you will get the EU to drop the sanctions?
Kerry: Yes. But you also have to let out some Palestinian prisoners you have been holding since 1993.
Bibi: We’ll just arrest them again.
Kerry: Whatever. So we have a deal. I get to make an announcement and we get the EU to drop sanctions on settlements.
Bibi: Yes, here’s a tip. Start with Germany. They live in terror that I’ll, you know, say the word Holocaust.
Kerry: Right.
Bibi: You know I’m not giving up the West Bank or freezing settlements or anything.
Kerry: And we’d never ask you too. By the way, there may be more money coming your way.
Bibi: Yeah, Cantor and Schumer told me.
Kerry: Thank you, Bibi. You are a great man.
Bibi: I know. Love to Teresa.
Kerry: And love to you and your Cabinet. Don’t forget to watch my announcement on CNN. I’ll be wearing that tie Sarah gave me.
Next: Kerry makes announcement. The Israel lobby from J Street to former Ambassador Indyk cheer. And, almost immediately, Germany announces it does not support sanctions. Next up, UK and France.
The Palestinians and America’s honor: screwed. Same as it ever was.
[Editor: Kerry’s Magnificent Breakthrough: A Psychodrama first appeared on MJ Rosenberg’s site today.]
The final link – Germany announces it does not support sanctions – is broken. It should be
http://www.jpost.com/International/Germany-backs-away-from-EU-settlement-directives-320469
Well that isn’t such a great idea, since one of the factors persuading the Palestinians to go was the EU vote
“A Palestinian source said that the publication of EU guidelines on Friday banning funding or grants to Israeli bodies with links to settlements was “decisive” in persuading the Palestinians to take the first steps back to negotiations.”
And more realistically, Ghassan Khatib, former director of communications for the Palestinian Authority says, “The thing that bothers me is that it seems that the resumption of negotiations is seen as an objective in itself. But the problem was never the lack of negotiations, direct or indirect. It is the huge gap between Israel’s stated position and its practices, and the lack of willingness by the US to put pressure on them.”
Meanwhile Lieberman and Bennet don’t even want talks, they are fine and dandy with the apartheid status quo, since they reckon that, with US cover, they can continue stealing land and building settlements, until there is no Palestine at all, just a disenfranchised, dispossessed population with no state and no rights, corralled into walled ghettoes.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/21/israel-palestinian-peace-talks-doubt
As Khatib says, US pressure is the vital factor, one which has already dragged ISrael into talks it never wanted. But it requires a lot more pressure than either Kerry or Obama has ever demonstrated they have either the will or the muscle to enforce. Would Aipac allow them to do so? The only hope that Israel seems to have is to keep prevaricating, cede nothing and hope they can blame the Palestinians for the breakdown of talks. Meanwhile, keep encouraging building and demolishing, the options available according to who your parents happen to be. Apartheid in action.
EU kill their own resolution? Not likely, and quite far fetched to be honest.
Actually terrorlisting the lebanese seems more likely to be the deal.
“The European Union is moving closer to declaring the military wing of the Lebanese party Hezbollah a terrorist organization and could make a decision as soon as Monday if the last few countries with reservations are swayed, a senior EU official said Friday.”
http://news.yahoo.com/eu-moves-closer-action-hezbollah-102100315.html
Wishful thinking. Europe isn’t acting because of geopolitical beneficence. There are factions set to erupt in various countries if these aren’t dealt with socially. Then there is the matter of votes. Half of Europe is experiencing crippling austerity and unemployment. You think the loss of Soda Streams and Ahava cosmetics are going to make much difference?
Germany backs away from EU guidelines, also not keen on the labeling issues. This is why the Palestinian leadership have to use all the legal tools available to them to achieve anything. On labeling many EU laws are now in place and applicable in all EU states and have mandatory country of origin labeling [South Africa have just forced Israeli companies operating in the West Bank not to label products “Made in Israel”. see Open Shahuda St here.. http://openshuhadastreet.org/south-africa-puts-a-label-on-settlement-goods/ also hounding Israel through the ICC and ICJ, these options must be pursued, otherwise the West will think the Palestinians can have sand kicked in their faces all the time. When Israel was given its birth certificate they wasted no time in letting the world know about it. In my opinion the most important thing is to get Natenyahu to agree to a freeze on settlements, in that event talks would not be an end in themselves. The prisoner issue while important for the prisoners and their families is not of acute political significance and it would be wrong for Abbas to use any releases as a meaningful political concession. At the end of the day the issue will not be decided by a political agreement between Israel and Palestine[ which is impossible] but by the application of International law forced on the recalcitrant party.