Israeli journalist Neri Zilber was on a J Street zoom session today and said that Donald Trump is pushing Israeli annexation of the West Bank to have a tool to divide the Democratic Party ahead of the election and paint the party as anti-Israel.
When people talk about annexation in Trump political terms they often pinpoint, Well, he wants to get out the evangelical and pro-Israel vote back in the States. To my mind I would argue something slightly differently, I think perhaps he wants to move forward or allow Israel to move forward with annexation to create a wedge issue visavis Joe Biden and the Democratic Party. In other words it’s not so much a mobilization tool but a hard political tool to use against Democrats in a very tight election.
We all obviously remember last summer the big brouhaha that Trump created over the potential visit of Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar to Israel and accusing the Democratic Party of being anti-Israel, of being leftwing radicals.
I wouldn’t put it past Trump to perhaps seize on the annexation issue and say Look, there’s a wide consensus at least politically in the top of the government in Israel for annexation You have two former IDF chiefs of staff who… may support it, why is Nancy Pelosi’s position for instance more credible visavis Israel’s security and interests than Benny Gantz and Gabi Ashkenazi. I would argue that’s Trump’s motivation.
(This is what we have also argued, that Trump is not in a play for evangelical voters, whom he already has, but wants Democratic voters and donors, many of whom are rightwing on this issue, including some older Jews in Florida.)
Zilber, a fellow at the Israel lobby thinktank WINEP, said Joe Biden won’t reverse annexation recognition if he becomes president:
I dont think a Biden administration will likely potentially revoke the recognition that the Trump administration will give to the areas annexed by Israel if and when it happens. I don’t see a scenario where Israel itself rolls back the annexation. I don’t see that.
Zilber said that Netanyahu is pushing for annexation, as a “legacy” move to be remembered as a Zionist giant. “At a deep ideological level this is his motivation.” Zilber thinks that due to all the pressure against it, Netanyahu will commence annexation piecemeal: the settlement blocs inside the Israeli wall, plus one symbolic settlement further afield, like Beit El or Kiryat Arba, as a bone to the zealot-settler camp. “This is a multistage process, trying to placate the settlers.”
While Zilber says he is confused by Netanyahu’s planning, he says the likelihood is that Israel will move ahead with annexing the settlement blocs, then look at the international response, and the response from Palestinians– and “then they move forward with more annexation. I think that’s the real risk.”
It’s hard to say what the world will do, beyond lip service opposition. Netanyahu will tell the world, We’re not against peace talks or a Palestinian state, Zilber says. “They’re going to try to bludgeon the international criticism of such a move.”
As for the Israeli public, the settlement blocs are “in the consensus” for the Israeli public, so annexation is not a big issue for Jewish Israelis. That’s why Blue and White leaders Benny Gantz and Gabi Ashkenazi folded to Netanyahu on annexation– because the Israeli Jewish public doesn’t care, Zilber said.
“It’s hard to say what the world will do, beyond lip service opposition. Netanyahu will tell the world, We’re not against peace talks or a Palestinian state, Zilber says. “They’re going to try to bludgeon the international criticism of such a move.” ” says the article. On that topic, there’s an analysis from Lawfare: https://www.lawfareblog.com/israels-annexation-age-great-power-competition
… [Israel] also faces the prospect of severe pressure or punishment from European governments that oppose the move. EU foreign policy chief Joseph Borrell warned that Israeli moves toward applying sovereignty over parts of the West Bank, “if implemented, could not pass unchallenged.” Indeed, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas traveled to Israel this week to warn again of such consequences….To deter annexation, leading EU members — including France, Belgium, Spain, Sweden, Luxembourg, and Ireland — have recently threatened Israel with sanctions and even suspension of diplomatic ties. Measures discussed by the bloc include exclusion from trade deals, grants, the Erasmus Plus student exchange, and other significant research and academic projects like Horizon Europe, the EU’s ambitious €100 billion scientific research initiative…Sweden, Ireland, and Luxembourg are advocating for the most severe measure: suspending the EU-Israel Association Agreement. The EU could also nix its yet-to-be-ratified open skies agreement with Israel. Banning Israel from these initiatives does not require consensus among members; countries that usually back Israel in voting sessions, such as Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Austria, cannot prevent such actions. These measures would be a huge blow to Israel, especially as the EU bloc is Israel’s largest trading partner.
Of course Biden will not revoke the Trump/Adelson/Kushner blessings on the areas of annexation.
Biden has proudly stated he is a zionist too.
Despite the condemnation by the UN, EU, the Arab nations, and so many others, including think tanks, and human rights groups, Israel is a law unto itself, does not give a damn about the opinion of others, and will flagrantly violate all laws. It has occupied, stolen, and killed with impunity.
If anyone thinks that these nations now showing their condemnation for Netanyahu’s outrage, will not forgive, forget, and embrace Israel again, to once again have them as a good ally, you are only fooling yourself.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/400-jewish-studies-scholars-denounce-annexation-as-a-crime-against-humanity/
“400 Jewish studies scholars denounce annexation as a ‘crime against humanity’” Times of Israel, June 12/20
“Academics sign letter saying Israel’s extension of sovereignty over parts of West Bank lands would create ‘apartheid conditions.’”
JTA — “More than 400 Jewish & Israel studies academics have signed a statement denouncing potential Israeli annexation of parts of the West Bank as ‘apartheid’ & saying it would be a ‘crime against humanity’ according to international statutes.
“’Representing a spectrum of viewpoints, we write in opposition to the continuation of the occupation & the stated intention of the current elected government in Israel to annex parts of the West Bank, thereby formally (de jure) creating apartheid conditions in Israel & Palestine,’ the statement said.
“It continued, ‘Under these conditions, annexation of Palestinian territories will cement into place an anti-democratic system of separate & unequal law & systemic discrimination against the Palestinian population.’
“Israel’s government may begin the process of annexing parts of the West Bank on July 1, an action Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly promised to take. The Trump administration gave a green light to annexation when it released its Middle East peace plan this year, but figures in the administration are divided about the move.
“Palestinian leadership, which views the West Bank as the territory of its state, has decried the move as illegal & a death blow to any future peace process.” (cont’d)
.
“The letter was signed by a range of liberal and left-wing Jewish studies scholars across North America, Europe and Israel. They include prominent professors such as New York University’s Hasia Diner, Stanford’s Steven Zipperstein and Dartmouth’s Susannah Heschel, the daughterof Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel, one of the most prominent rabbis of the 20th century.
“’We want to shape the conversation on campus and in the culture around democracy,’ said Zachary Braiterman, a Jewish studies professor at Syracuse and a co-author of the letter. ‘And if the government in Israel decides to annex territory and develop isolated enclaves of Palestinian territory without giving people the right to vote, as scholars committed to Jewish studies and Israel studies, we want to commit ourselves to democracy.'”
The shape of things to come worldwide:
https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/ali-abunimah/german-party-calls-sanctions-israel
“German party calls for sanctions on Israel” The Electronic Intifada, June 16/20
EXCERPT:
“Germany’s left-wing party Die Linke is calling for sanctions on Israel if it proceeds with its planned annexation of large parts of the occupied West Bank.
“In Germany there is a strictly enforced – but intellectually lazy and morally repugnant – elite consensus that unconditional support for Israel and inaction in the face of its crimes against Palestinians are necessary to atone for the murder of millions of European Jews in German government death camps.
“Few prominent German politicians have the courage or moral clarity to understand that genuine and principled atonement would mean applying the same human rights standards to Israel as to any other country.
“Instead, actual German policy amounts to shielding and rewarding Israel as it commits war crimes and perpetrates conquest, occupation and apartheid with impunity decade after decade.
“Deviation from this consensus typically draws false smears of anti-Semitism.
“In recent years, Die Linke has come in for strong criticism from Palestinians for falling in line with this consensus.
“In that context, the latest modest step by Die Linke, which holds 69 seats in the country’s lower house of parliament, the Bundestag, is a significant departure.
“’The planned expropriation and annexation of Palestinian land in the Jordan Valley would impose Israel’s administration, laws and jurisdiction on the Palestinian population without granting them Israeli citizenship,’ the party says in a 6 June resolution approved by its executive committee.
“’Should the Israeli government resolve to carry out the annexation, Die Linke will advocate for the suspension of the EU-Israel Association Agreement,’ the party adds.”