Biden was already a vulnerable candidate because of the genocide

A recent New York Times poll found that 64% of voters want Joe Biden replaced on the presidential ticket. That included 55% of Black voters, 66% of Latino voters, and 48% of voters who backed him in 2020.

Here’s the twist: that survey was taken before the disastrous presidential debate. Since Biden’s terrible performance, voters, elected officials, donors, and party insiders have all expressed anxiety about his ability to beat Trump in November.

They’re right to be concerned. A new set of polls from Emerson College finds Biden trailing Trump in every single battleground state.

So far The White House has reacted to these developments with a staggering level of denial and obfuscation, but it’s impossible to know how things will shake out in the coming weeks. What’s undeniable is that Biden is heading into the election as a weak candidate with a great chance of losing.

A President dropping out at this point in the race is unprecedented, so it makes sense that the media has covered it closely, but there’s an aspect of this saga that pundits are often overlooking: Biden’s support for Israel’s genocidal assault on Gaza.

Beyond the temporary delay of single weapons shipment and some strategic public displays of frustration, the Biden administration has enabled Netanyahu’s war every step of the way. In May it was announced that the President would move forward with another $1 billion sale of arms to Israel.

“Two things can be true,” told reporters at the time. “We can have tough conversations with our friends and allies and we can say to our ally that look, we want to make sure that you’re able to defend yourself.”

As a result of Biden’s Gaza policy, the U.S. has seen its largest antiwar protests in over twenty years. Hundreds of college campuses have seen solidarity encampments erected, thousands have hit the streets to protest, and pro-Israel lawmakers have consistently been hounded by activists over their support for mounting war crimes. “BIDEN BIDEN YOU CAN’T HIDE, WE CHARGE YOU WITH GENOCIDE,” has been a popular chant across many of the rallies.

Polling has predictably shown that Biden’s standing has plummeted among Arab and Muslim voters, a bloc that was crucial to his win against Trump in 2020. According to one survey, Biden’s support among Arab Americans had dropped from 59% in 2020 to 17% by late October 2023. His approval rating dropped from 74% in 2020 to 29%.

This growing frustration helped birth the Uncommitted Campaign, an electoral effort aimed at sending a message to Biden on Gaza. The endeavor was initiated by Michigan activists with little in the way of resources, but over half a million voters ended up rejecting Biden in the primaries and now the movement will have multiple delegates on the floor at the upcoming Democratic Convention in Chicago.

“We’re really trying to use that lens to exert the pressure and ultimately try to get Biden to see that this core base is really, really critical to him winning the presidency. What ends up happening in relation to him changing course or not is really on him and depends on individual voters,”  Palestinian-American activist and Listen to Michigan Co-Director Lexis Zeidan told me last month.

With the press focused on Biden’s political future, a number of huge stories have seemingly fallen through the cracks in recent days. One of the biggest is a new report from the British medical journal, The Lancet, which estimates that the actual death toll from Israel’s war could be north of 186,000. That is roughly 8% of Gaza’s population.

If Biden stays the course and ends up losing in November, the media will primarily focus on Biden’s age, health, and public performance. However, his support for Israel’s genocide should also be at the forefront of his political obituary.