The formula Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu presented for the plan to end the war in Gaza is riddled with red flags. With the Israeli Prime Minister to his side, the U.S. President explained that his plan would include the release of all Israeli captives in Gaza, dead or alive, within the first 72 hours of the deal, while Israel would release 250 Palestinians from Israeli jails, and humanitarian aid would flow into the Strip.
That’s about the only part of the proposal that’s clear. Nothing else in the “20-point plan” has a clear timeframe or mechanism of implementation.
The plan includes a “gradual” withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip, leaving up to 70% of its surface under Israeli control. International and Arab forces would take over running Gaza, which would be “demilitarized,” and the “military capabilities” of Palestinian resistance factions would be destroyed. At least nominally, Palestinians would not be forcibly removed from Gaza en masse. An independent, apolitical commission would run Palestinians’ everyday lives and also run Gaza’s reconstruction.
The commission itself would be under the supervision of a “board of peace” headed by Trump himself. It would also include Palestinian and international members. Leaks that preceded the official announcement of the plan said that one of the names on the board would be former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who reportedly participated in the drafting of the plan.
Hamas and the other Palestinian resistance factions would disarm, and those of its members who are willing to leave would be given safe passage to other countries. The factions would also be excluded from any participation in running Gaza, directly or indirectly. Most importantly, the Palestinian Authority would take no part in the administration of the Strip until it undergoes a series of “reforms.” Trump also said that Netanyahu does not accept a Palestinian state, and that Trump “understands that.”
Netanyahu, a staunch rejectionist of any end to the war that doesn’t result in unconditional surrender and total Israeli control over Gaza, announced his acceptance of the plan with visible satisfaction, adding that Trump was “the best friend” Israel has ever had.
And why wouldn’t he? The announced terms echo Netanyahu’s main conditions for ending the war — Hamas has to release the captives and disarm, a civil authority will run the strip, and Israel maintains ultimate control. The plan even appeases the right-wing Israeli demand to exclude any Palestinian political force from running the Strip, closing the door to Palestinian statehood. Yet Trump claims that the plan is meant to forever “end the conflict” in the Middle East.
On top of that, the plan’s lack of clear implementation mechanisms or time frames for anything except the release of Israeli captives brings to mind previous attempts to end the war in Gaza that Netanyahu systematically sabotaged, as recently admitted by former State Department spokesperson Mathew Miller. In January, Israel reached a ceasefire in Gaza that secured the release of most of the captives held by Hamas, including all civilian captives. Netanyahu continued to delay sending a negotiating team to Qatar or Egypt to initiate the second phase of negotiations aimed at definitively ending the war. Then, on March 18, Israel broke the ceasefire and resumed the bombing of Gaza.
Hamas’s dilemma
The critical element in the plan is the endorsement from the Arab and Muslim countries, which Trump claimed to have secured. Leaders of Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Turkey had met with Trump days before the plan was announced, and one of the conditions they had was for a diplomatic path to remain open for negotiating the establishment of a Palestinian state. Leaks from the meeting also said that Arab and Muslim countries would not only send forces to Gaza, but would also fund its reconstruction.
Between then and Trump’s announcement, there were several other meetings involving Netanyahu, Trump, U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and Israeli strategic affairs minister Ron Dermer. Israeli settler movements also sent a delegation to Washington to deliver their reservations regarding the plan to Netanyahu before his meeting with Trump.
On Tuesday, Qatar announced that it had handed Hamas the plan, and that the Arab countries were “in a state of consultation.” Late on Monday, the foreign ministers of Turkey, Jordan, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Egypt released a joint statement that praised Trump’s “sincere efforts” to end the war in Gaza, adding that their countries were ready to “put the final touches” on the plan. The Palestinian Authority joined in the praise of Trump’s “sincere efforts,” without commenting on the specifics.
Meanwhile, Israeli far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich rejected the plan, insisting that Netanyahu has no legitimacy to end the war without “absolute victory.” Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid offered Netanyahu a safety net in case his far-right allies withdraw from the cabinet, and captives’ families said in a statement that Trump’s plan was “the last chance” to return them home.
However, Trump’s plan doesn’t appear to be open to negotiations. On Tuesday, Trump told reporters at the White House that Hamas has three to four days to accept his plan. During his announcement on Monday, the U.S. president told Netanyahu directly that if Hamas refused the plan, he would back Israel “to finish the job.”
But the counterweight to Palestinian concerns and reservations over the plan is the reality of the ongoing devastation in Gaza, where the Israeli-induced famine has claimed the lives of over 420 Palestinians, mostly children, added to the more than 56,000 people killed by Israeli bombs.
If Hamas refuses the plan or presents reservations or amendments, both Israel and the U.S. would use it to absolve Israel of any responsibility for the coming phase of Gaza’s genocide. If it accepts, it would be walking the entire Palestinian cause into a future of uncertainty.
As others have pointed out, Palestinians haven’t been consulted, it gives Israel the right to intervene in Gaza whenever it feels like it, and it all appears to be a way of outsourcing the occupation so the apartheid system is run by a consortium instead of by Israel directly – it’s an optical illusion.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/trump-gaza-plan-israel-netanyahu-blair-b2836449.html
Don’t be fooled – Trump’s Gaza peace plan is a colonial con-trick on the Palestinians…The colonial reality is that Israel and the US have come up with a cunning plan to outsource Israel’s continued dominance or occupation of the Gaza Strip under a governor, Tony Blair, (a man much reviled in the Middle East), and a king, Donald Trump, who would run Gaza….They would rule indefinitely or until the Palestinian Authority, which governs the bits of the West Bank where Israel doesn’t want to be bothered with directly occupying, can show that it can be trusted to also run Gaza the way that the US and Israel want….The only prospect of peace is to offer the Palestinian people some kind of hope that they will get a state they can live in outside of Israeli control.
Why not Ami Ayalon’s peace plan?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/14/shin-bet-ami-ayalon-calls-on-israel-release-intifada-leader-marwan-barghouti
Ex-Shin Bet head says Israel should negotiate with jailed intifada leader
Two LIARS running Palestine into the ground. And the rest of the world? Incensed but doing NOTHING!
Step 1. Cook up a plan that will be barely acceptable to some Arab states.
Step 2. Nag and bully those states into accepting it.
Step 3. Proclaim this loudly.
Step 4. Hand the plan over to the Israelis so that they can make adjustments to suit themselves.
Step 5. Proclaim loudly that Arab states and Israel have agreed to the plan.
(Do not mention the Arab States did not agree to the adjusted plan.)
Step 6. See this plan rejected by Palestinians. (As was intended.)
Step 7. Declare “No partner for peace”.
Step 8. Continue ethnic cleansing.
The plan contains promises about short term relief and I think Hamas should accept it for that reason. However, all the threats are aimed at Hamas and by extension, all Palestinians, if the plan isn’t followed. Basically it is surrender or we continue the genocide. There is nothing directed at Israel if they don’t comply and so one should expect them to do what Israel has always done— use agreements as suggestions, abiding when it helps their goals and breaking the agreement when they think they can get away with it.
Netanyahu has been doing his best to play his fiddle to generate a negative from Hamas.
Trump is gambling his legacy and his Nobel knowing both depend on his being able to stand up to Netanyahu when required.
Making himself chair of the oversight board is encouraging as that entails respnsibility…. especially considering the direction of voter opinion.
A “yes, assuming….” from Hamas, seems prudent to me.