Last night on Hardball, Chris Matthews was saying that an Israeli attack on Iran would destroy the Camp David treaty. But Israeli rejectionism is having the same effect. Akiva Eldar in the National Interest says the Egyptian presidential election will end Israel impunity for its behavior. Note that the Egyptian public is tuned to the brutality of the occupation, just like we are:
Yet there is one theme that unites the two [Egyptian presidential] finalists, as well as most other candidates who were dropped in the first round: they all strongly criticize the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem and Israel’s settlement policy. Both have declared that if Israel will not get involved in serious negotiations with the Palestinians on the two-state solution, Egypt will feel free to review the Camp David accord, signed in September 1978 by President Anwar el-Sadat and Israeli prime minister Menachem Begin. It is too early to predict what they mean by “reviewing” the accords. It will be difficult to cool further the diplomatic, cultural and economic relationship between the countries. Relations have been nearly frozen since Mubarak’s removal from office. A long-standing deal under which Israel was supplied with Egyptian natural gas is practically dead..
For many years, the Egyptian regime allowed Israel to have it both ways: to enjoy the benefits of peace with the most important Arab country while perpetrating a reality in the occupied territories that even the United States, Israel’s closest ally, believes to be illegal. The Israeli leaders adopted Prime Minister Menachem Begin’s perception that the Palestinian chapter in the Camp David Accords was just a fig leaf for the Egyptians..
The Al Jazeera TV network will bring into the living rooms of millions of Egyptians the next images of Israeli soldiers chasing Palestinian demonstrators. And the Egyptian populace isn’t likely to let its leaders keep business as usual vis-à-vis the Jewish State.
The Egyptian military is and always has been the real power in Egypt….they even take a slice of some financial deals in Egypt…..a very unusual arrangement. Good example is the Egypt military, to keep their members busy and put them to good use in a non war time era, long ago branched out into contracts for deliveries of durable goods and even have a slice of some RE development they lend their manpower to…most of the profit going to high military Generals of course.
Now if Saudi or some other ME countries quarenteed Egypt replacement money for US military aid like they just guarenteed Palestine (100 million a month) if Israel withholds the Palestine tax money again…..Israel would have a HUGE, HUGE Egypt problem.
I could be wrong since I’m not Egyptian and no expert but the impression I got during Egypt Arab Spring and since then is that the Egyptian military doesn’t want to upset the populace too much….they want to keep “their’ particular status quo as an institution regardless of what politicial heads or parties come and ago. If they were totally independent from US military aid they would be even more in line with popular sentiment on Israel.
The modern Egyptian military is the continuing brainchild of the late General/President Nasser. It remains some forty years after his death, the most politically powerful entity in Egypt. Since Nasser’s reign, it has completely controlled the country and the presidencies that followed Nasser’s, and will continue to do so in order to maintain civic stability within. Sadat arrived at his presidency through the army and through Nasser’s appointing him his deputy. Mubarak, the same: he was selected as deputy by Sadat. But let us here be clear, in the case of Mubarak, it wasn’t only Tahrir square that brought him down, it was also that the army heads abandoned him and refused him protection when the Tahrir people were calling for his resignation. The army did this because Mubarak had, two years before Tahrir square, insisted that his son should take over the presidency and the army should support him in this – but the army, being somewhat Nasserite (leftie and anti-royalist) and with no confidence in Mubarak junior (no military background or training there for the privileged capitalist son), rejected Mubarak’s declaration and used Tahrir square, as well as the timely White House confusion at the time, as opportunity to pull the rug from right under Mubarak – and without negative consequences to the Egyptian army’s own power structure.
As was president Nasser, the Egyptian army is the enemy of the Egyptian moslem brotherhood, and there is no chance in hell they’re gonna let them take the country’s steering wheel. The army has it’s preferred presidential candidate and some analysts say that if the army’s man don’t win, then blood and civic turmoil are sure to follow. But it’s almost certain that their man will win. Election fixing? Sure, no problem.
And when it comes to israel, well, I can only laugh at the degree of revenge that Egyptian army conscripts and generals feel towards the zionists murderers of their platoons. These are real-blooded tribal people who still believe in revenge and honor. They ain’t a tribe ‘ideologically’ like the zionists are. They live and die on the principle of ‘an eye for an eye’. In the meantime, they stay quiet, take the dollars, get stronger, and look forward to the day their tanks roll into Jerusalem.
Not forgetting here the profound loathing and hostility that Egyptian civilians feel for the dastardly israelis.
There will be a military confrontation between israel and Egypt at some stage. But Egyptians know that first they gotta get a president and then get a long-overdue constitution – they know they gotta stabilize the economy of their country by redirecting the USA aid package towards creating jobs and no more into the Swiss bank accounts of the Mubaraks and their aids.
Do the Egyptian people hate the peace treaty with israel? Yes!
Does the Egyptian army hate the peace treaty with israel? A big fat yezzer!
Is this bad for israel? Uhuh sure is.
So like what will israel do? Israel will try it’s best, with the help of Saudi Arabia, to insure that the moslem brotherhood gets into power.
Yeah right there’s REAL peace between Egypt and israel!
The Muslim Brotherhood, which also clinched the majority in recent parliamentary elections, has threatened to cancel the peace treaty with Israel by putting the issue up for a referendum and letting Egyptians decide. (IsraelNationalNews © 2012 06/09/12)
The Muslim Brotherhood, which also clinched the majority in recent parliamentary elections, has threatened to cancel the peace treaty with Israel by putting the issue up for a referendum and letting Egyptians decide. (IsraelNationalNews © 2012 06/09/12)
The man on the Egyptian Street gets nothing from USS military aid to Egypt. I imagine the military contender is telling them if he gets in office the spare change will go them instead of to Mubarak Family.
Can we drop the charade of Israel pretending it wants anything else but Eretz Israel? That veneer has come off years ago.