Michigan’s 11th
The polling in Michigan’s 11th district held up and Haley Stevens beat Andy Levin by 20 points. The race saw two incumbents squaring off as a result of restricting in the state. AIPAC spent almost $5 million on Stevens through its United Democracy Project Super PAC and they’ve spent about $30 million across primaries this cycle.
Some viewed the Stevens/Levin race as a proxy war over the issue of Israel within the Democratic party, but the reality is a little more complicated. The optics sure made it seem like that. Levin was backed by groups like IfNotNow and lawmakers like Rashida Tlaib and Bernie Sanders. He’s a progressive who speaks openly and eloquently about his Jewish faith. He opposes Israeli settlement expansion and the occupation. He talks about the human rights of Palestinians. Stevens was backed by pro-Israel members of the Democratic establishment (like Hillary Clinton) and lobbying groups like AIPAC and Democratic Majority for Israel. Insofar as she talks about Israel, she hits all the correct notes.
Look a little closer and the narrative begins to deteriorate a little. Yes, Levin opposes settlement expansion and the occupation but he also opposes the BDS movement, voted in favor of the extra Iron Dome funding, refused to cosponsor Rep. Betty McCollum’s historic bill promoting the rights of Palestinian children, and has resisted efforts to condition military aid to Israel over its human rights record. In fact, just last year Levin signed a letter rejecting calls to condition aid that was boosted by AIPAC.
So why spend almost $5 million to take down Levin if his position on Israel isn’t radically different than Stevens? We get some insight into the group’s decision making from United Democracy Project CEO Rob Bassin, who spoke with Jewish Insider the day after the election. Bassin says that AIPAC chooses to target races where “there is a sharp contrast between a strong supporter of the U.S.-Israel relationship… and a detractor of that relationship.”
So even the most basic criticisms of Israel’s human rights record constitutes grounds for intervention. Some have said AIPAC’s targeting of a Jewish candidate is ironic, but it makes perfect sense because groups like AIPAC have spent decades pushing the lie that Zionism and Judaism are the same thing. Critics of their political influence are swiftly dismissed as antisemites and if more Levins end up in congress this longstanding ruse becomes a little more difficult to pull off.
AIPAC repeats the same line on social media whenever one of their candidates prevails: being pro-Israel is both good policy and good politics. This assertion immediately falls apart under mild scrutiny. If being pro-Israel is good politics, why did Rep. Rashida Tlaib (probably AIPAC’s least favorite House member) absolutely destroy her primary challenger not far from where Stevens won? If being pro-Israel is good politics, why doesn’t AIPAC mention the country in any of its ads? If being pro-Israel is good politics, why didn’t AIPAC reference the country when naming its Super PAC? If being pro-Israel is good politics, why does every recent poll say the country’s reputation is declining among Democratic voters and young people?
The most recent work on that front comes from a University of Maryland Critical Issues poll. Among Democrats who are aware of Biden’s position on the issue, most say that the President is more pro-Israel than them. They say the same thing about their local congress members. Among Democrats who had heard of the BDS movement, 33% say they support it and just 10% say they oppose it.
This is a great data point, but none of this really translates into policy yet. AIPAC is no doubt familiar with this kind of polling and can’t let it add up to anything electorally. However, they know this stuff is a warning sign for potential problems down the road.
Before the election Phil Weiss had a post on our site that argued Stevens/Levin was a fight between two branches of the Israel Lobby: the AIPAC kind and the liberal Zionism of J Street, who spent $700,000 in support of Levin. Here’s Weiss:
This is a landmark moment because AIPAC used to have to marshal resources to exclude marginal Israel critics..Now it’s going after establishment personalities like Donna Edwards, a beloved figure in Washington progressive circles, and Andy Levin, who is the scion of a Michigan political dynasty.
But where is the movement here? Let’s say that polls are right, and Andy Levin loses– what is the political takeaway? Will these liberal Zionists find it harder to be liberal Zionists? Will more of them walk the Peter Beinart path toward one state with equal rights for everyone?
I think the answer is yes. Israel is politicized as never before. And once the issue is fully politicized, and Democrats get to argue over it, all the energy will come from the left, and liberal Zionism’s political weaknesses will be exposed.
A Levin victory would have symbolized a crack in AIPAC’s foundation. They’re spending millions so the house doesn’t end up collapsing one day, but they’re also sending a message: the garbled rhetoric of liberal Zionism is not enough. They want true believers and they’re prepared to act.
Michigan’s 13th
Most post-primary analysis has focused on Stevens/Levin, but the Democratic race in the state’s 13th district is also worth taking a look at. State Rep. Shri Thanedar beat state Sen. Adam Hollier by less than 5 points. Hollier was backed by AIPAC’s Super PAC. It’s just the second time that United Democracy Project candidate has been defeated. AIPAC spent over $4 million on the race, while Thanedar self-funded his campaign.
If you think this means Thanedar is good on the subject of Palestine, I’ve got some bad news. His campaign website has exactly one subject listed under the “Positions” tab and it’s “Policy on Israel.” The page is very long and very bad. “As your next congressperson, I pledge to be a supportive voice for Israel in Washington, and will defend Israel’s right to exist and to thrive in the years and generations to come,” it declares.
Thanedar says we need to apply strict sanctions on Iran, pursue ongoing military partnerships with Israel, keep the Jerusalem embassy open, oppose the U.N. Human Rights Council, and reject Palestinian statehood. Of course he calls on Palestinian leadership to condemn Hamas violence, but there’s no mention of Israeli atrocities. He says that the BDS movement is, “both ill-advised and antithetical to the health of our close ally.”
Why does this guy have a massive chunk of his website devoted to Israel and why did AIPAC spend millions opposing someone this awful? For the answers to both these questions you have to go back to May 2021 when Israel was pummeling Gaza, destroying homes and killing civilians. Thanedar cosponsored a bill in the Michigan House that called for an end to U.S. military aid to Israel. The legislation also referred to the country as an apartheid state.
“We urge the Congress of the United States to enact policies that halt taxpayer funded aid to Israel, which supports the military detention of Palestinian children; the unlawful seizure, appropriation, and destruction of Palestinian property; forcible displacement, harm, and killing of civilians in the West Bank; or any further annexation of Palestinian land in violation of international law,” it read.
This effort naturally caught the attention of AIPAC. Thanedar presumably saw the writing on the wall because, shortly after he announced his candidacy, he rescinded his support for the bill and asked for his name to be taken off it. Keep in mind that Thanedar was originally supposed to run against Tlaib before restricting prompted her to switch districts.
Thanedar told Jewish Insider that his cosponsoring of the bill was merely an “emotional reaction” to the situation. That’s understandable, as most people who watch over 66 kids get killed would presumably get emotional. However, it seems Thanedar’s empathy quickly dissipated once we realized AIPAC was en route. “When I was formulating my Israel policy, I felt that resolution did not fit with, and upon more reflection, more reading, I felt that the language in there was not in line with my thinking,” he said.
Ah! I hate when I react to war crimes before I have formulated my Israel policy.
The moral of this story is that AIPAC only lost in the technical sense. Their effort paid off and they have yet another congress member rabidly devoted to Israel. They’ve managed to take over the Democratic primary process so completely that even a defeat can be a victory.
Odds & Ends
?️ Rep. Cori Bush won her primary by 43 points.
?️ Rep. Rashida Tlaib won her primary by 41 points.
?️Palestinian activist Huwaida Arraf came in 4th in Michigan’s 10 district. She has a statement on the race up on social media.
?? The Biden administration is selling $3 billion worth of missiles to Saudi Arabia.
?? Blake Masters, a Republican who once cited a Nazi official, won his Arizona primary. AIPAC, who is allegedly very concerned about antisemitism, didn’t spend any money on the race. Almost makes you think.
?? You can read more about the recent BDS polls I cited earlier on the Brookings website. We have a piece on the site breaking down some of the information.
? Mitchell Plitnick is on the site writing about lobbyist Steve Rabinowitz and the NSO Group.
? In Electronic Intifada Ali Abunimah writes about Unilever backing down to bullying from Israel.
? Vedat Gashi is trying to unseat Rep. Jamaal Bowman in New York’s 16th district. Gashi was just endorsed by the man Bowman beat, former congressman Eliot Engel.
? Yousef Munayyer is in The Nation writing about the UDP: “If it seems strange that a single-issue PAC would spend millions on political ads only to not mention *the single issue* the PAC is dedicated to, you should consider just how much opinion on Israel has shifted, among Democrats in particular.”
?? Ben Freeman in Responsible Statecraft on how the Taiwan lobby paved the way for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip there.
?? A new poll shows that the vast majority of Americans oppose a war with Iran.
?? Watch our Palestine News Director Yumna Patel’s new video report on the Palestinians fighting to stay in their homes in the South Hebron Hills.
Stay safe out there,
Michael
