Netanyahu is back and leading the polls, all thanks to the ICC

Benjamin Netanyahu and Likud are making a considerable political comeback after support for the party fell dramatically following October 7.  

Going back further for over a year, Benny Gantz’s National Unity (NU) party has been rivaling Netanyahu’s Likud in the polls. Before October 7, it was looking like a tie with both parties polling at about 30 seats each (out of the Knesset’s 120 seats). But October 7 resulted in a decisive shift – for the next five months, NU polled at around 40 seats, while Likud was below 20. It would even out a bit in the next two months, but not much – Likud was clearly struggling while NU was ascendant. 

It was clear, that the failure to anticipate and avert the Hamas-led attack on October 7 marked a nadir in terms of trust in Netanyahu on the matter that seems to occupy Israelis most: security. 

A similar pattern was seen in polling for the politician Israelis preferred for Prime Minister (even though the Israeli election system is based on the election of a party, not a leader as such). Before October 7, Gantz rivaled Netanyahu, and polls often showed a 40%-40% split. Come October 7, Gantz led with around 50% support and Netanyahu fell below 30%. It started improving for Netanyahu in March, both in terms of popularity as well as Likud’s position vis-à-vis NU, but National Union and Gantz were still often in the lead. 

This is what prompted Gantz to feel confident enough to issue an ultimatum – either Netanyahu present a clear goal for the future governance of Gaza (an alternative to Hamas etc.) by June 8, or he would bolt the coalition. “A war is only won with a clear and realistic strategic compass,” Gantz said. Notice “strategic”, not “moral”. We must remember that the two generals leading the NU – Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, are the people who boasted of returning Gaza to the Stone Age and who coined the criminal Dahiya Doctrine, respectively. The two joined the war cabinet in the wake of October 7 as an emergency measure. 

Netanyahu’s office scoffed at Gantz’s ultimatum: “He should issue ultimatums to Hamas, not the Prime Minister”. 

Gantz was playing a high-stakes game. But he may have failed to see what was coming. 

Last week, the ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan declared that he is seeking an arrest warrant for Netanyahu, among others, for crimes against humanity. This was a gift for Netanyahu. He called the court antisemitic, likened Khan to a Nazi judge, and used the occasion to issue another genocidal biblical reference to the Amalek. Even Netanyahu’s liberal opponents rallied around him. What offended most Israelis, it seems, was the fact that both Hamas leaders as well as Israeli leaders were equated in the sought arrest warrant. As fierce Netanyahu critic and former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said: 

“You take a murderer, a killer, a man who sends his guys to butcher innocent Israelis, and you bind him with the prime minister of Israel who’s responsible for a counteroffensive, I mean, this is something that Israelis can’t accept… That plays in favor of Netanyahu. Israelis are already saying, ‘Look, they are all anti-Semites. They are all against us.’”

Netanyahu understood how to exploit this moment into one of victimhood – both personal and national. 

Thus, the latest Channel 14 poll showed Likud had ballooned to a whopping 27 seats while NU fell to a relatively paltry 19. Although a prospective government coalition without including the National Union only polled at 58 (just below the necessary 61 majority), an opposition coalition that didn’t include Likud would need to include Palestinian parties with 10 seats to form a majority, and that seems unlikely as the opposition parties mostly come out of the center-right. In terms of popularity for the Prime Minister post, it’s 44% for Netanyahu and 33% for Gantz.  

The 27 seats for Likud are still lower than the 32 seats it won in the latest elections in November 2022, but it’s not that far off. And it suddenly seems that Gantz’s ultimatum to Netanyahu might have sealed his political fate. 

So, Netanyahu is back, and all he needed was to be threatened with arrest by the International Criminal Court. It is telling, how in Israel, the prospect of an arrest warrant for crimes against humanity can bolster your popularity that much.