First Palestinian election since 2005 stirs optimism in Gaza

Mohammed Saleem is 27 years old and hopes to finally vote in an election this spring when the Palestinians are expected to go to the ballots for the first time in 15 years. Saleem, a journalist from Gaza City, plans to cast a vote for the Fatah party and the sitting president Mahmoud Abbas, whose term expired 11 years ago. 

“Fatah is the right choice for Palestinians now, they will absolutely redeem the economic situation in different ways; they will support Gaza’s laborers to work inside [Israel], and they will hire thousands of employees because they can,” he said. 

Like most Palestinians, Saleem’s greatest consideration is economics, although in Gaza finances are often woven into politics. Under an Israeli and Egyptian siege for the last decade, isolation plummeted incomes in the coastal enclave. The UN found between 2007 and 2018 the GDP per capita declined by 27% and unemployment spiked to 49%. What’s more, 2020 was a tumultuous year for Gaza. Unemployment among women under 30 rose to 92%, and for men of the same age group joblessness hit 63%.

Over the last year UN officials have warned that depleted resources, power outages, a lack of clean water, and medical infrastructure decline has left the territory vulnerable to a humanitarian disaster. For many Palestinians, the path forward requires a lifting of the blockade so Palestinians can resume working inside of Israel, and develop industry for trade. 

“Palestinians know that Fatah is capable of changing a bad situation in Gaza, so they will give Fatah their votes,” Saleem said. “Look how many young people could not find a job, or start a family due to the siege and the shabby economic situation under Hamas’s rule.

“Ending the Israeli siege will fix the economic situation,” he said. However, he indicated past calls to hold elections that went unfulfilled serve as a reminder that “both sides Fatah and Hamas” should “commit and respect the results.” 

Professor of political science at the Al-Azhar University in Gaza, Mkhaimar Abusada, said Palestinians are eager to give young leaders an opportunity to lead. “According to Palestinian law, the president only has two presidential terms of a combined 8 years, four-and-four each. But Abbas has been the Palestinian president for 16 years now after he won in 2005,” he said.

Despite the positive public atmosphere of the elections this time, Abusada still is not sure that the elections will be held. 

On January 15, Abbas enacted a decree to hold legislative, presidential, and national council elections over three stages, beginning in May.

The last presidential elections were held in 2005, followed by legislative elections in 2006. Fatah won the presidency while Hamas gained more votes in the legislature, leading to a bitter dispute with months of fighting that reached its nadir when the government officially split in two in 2007, with Fatah heading the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and Hamas running Gaza. 

As a result, the current leadership remained in their posts and the lawmakers have not been able to hold legislative sessions. 

“The decree Abbas issued was very serious this time as it has certain times for the elections, but there will be meetings between Palestinian factions in Cairo in the upcoming month,” Abusada said. “The talks between factions will not be easy, so it is hard to say whether the elections will be held or not. It is subject to the quality of talks and the understanding between the factions.”

Abusada added that it is unlikely either Fatah or Hamas will attract a clear majority of voters. 

According to the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research’s latest public opinion poll, 38% are expected to cast ballots for Fatah while 34% will vote for Hamas in legislative elections. In the run-off for the presidency, 50% favor Mahmoud Abbas and 43% hope to elect Hamas’s head, Ismail Haniyeh. 

Yet Abbas’s popularity runs thin as 66% Palestinians polled said they support his resignation, a reflection of frustrations over the lack of new leaders in the political landscape. 

“Neither Fatah nor Hamas will win the majority of the legislative elections, so any government that will come to rule will be a coalition government between Fatah and Hamas and PLO factions,” Abusada said.

“Quotidian issues are the most urgent issues for Palestinians now,” Abusada added. Palestinians want economic recovery and responses to health problems exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic. 

Ali Omar, 22, lives in Gaza City and said he plans to vote for Haniyeh and Hamas. “If Fatah wins the elections, Israel will keep humiliating the Palestinians,” he lamented. Omar castigated Fatah’s approach of entering negotiations with Israel in the past. 

“Everyone in the world knows that Israel does not want peace with Palestinians,” he said. 

Nasser Rabah, 51, a novelist from Gaza’s Nuseirat refugee camp, and an undecided voter, disagrees. 

“Hamas is no longer able to develop a means of moving Gaza toward independence,” he said. Rabah criticized the Palestinian Authority for failing to prevent normalization deals between Israel and Arab governments, which signified to him a loss of international support for Palestinians.  

Rabah would like to see an elections as the basis for reconciliation between the two Palestinian governments in which Hamas will be part of the parliament, run by a Fatah majority. He leans toward voting for Abbas to remain in the presidency, which could “ensure that the situation is temporarily stable, then he can appoint a deputy to head the government and step down, or resign, it doesn’t really matter.”