Israel’s pyrrhic victory in Gaza

While U.S. support for the most recent Israeli assault on the Gaza Strip was more muted than usual, there was still no mistaking American backing for the bombing which left dozens of Palestinians dead and hundreds wounded. This attack stands out among many on Gaza as being particularly orchestrated and the timing, on the heels of Joe Biden’s recent visit to the region, as well as the White House’s statement that “the United States has worked with officials from Israel, the Palestinian Authority, Egypt, Qatar, Jordan, and others throughout the region to encourage a swift resolution to the conflict” raise the question of how deeply the Biden administration was involved in that coordination.

Israel had to go to some length to provoke retaliation from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in this round of fighting. Their initial arrest of PIJ’s West Bank political leader, Bassem Saadi, was expected to draw a quick, violent response from PIJ. But, while Islamic Jihad made threats against Israel, no attack came. Israel closed roads in the area near the Gaza border, a prelude to a military operation, and still no attack came. Finally, Israel just went ahead and started bombing Gaza, and PIJ finally did respond, leading to three days of massively disproportionate “fighting” resulting in virtually all the harm coming in Gaza. 

Much has been made of Hamas having stayed out of the exchange of fire, and there can be little doubt that this reticence was a major factor in PIJ so quickly agreeing to terms on a ceasefire, despite getting no agreement that Israel would release any prisoners; the terms of the agreement merely committed Egypt, which brokered the deal, to discuss the matter with Israel. Certainly, the lack of support from Gaza’s resident, limited authority, Hamas, left PIJ little choice but to agree.

Israel knew all along that Hamas would not get involved in the fighting if they limited their targets to Islamic Jihad leaders and sites. This was communicated through Egypt, yet it still wasn’t good enough for the Israeli colonial mindset. “Hamas bears responsibility for the territory in the Gaza Strip. Where the responsibility is not fulfilled, we will act forcefully, and we will use all the means at our disposal – military and civilian,” said Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz.

Hamas has drawn criticism from the Palestinian public for staying quiet according to Palestinian journalist Daoud Kuttab. But Israel wants more; they want Hamas to actively prevent PIJ and other groups from taking any action, something Hamas tries to do on a routine basis, but is more difficult, to the point of political suicide, in the face of Israeli provocations such as the ones that initiated the last onslaught. 

Hamas had reasons for staying out of the recent flare up. Israel had recently increased the number of work permits they granted to Gaza workers from 12,000 to 20,000. That would be a measurable increase under the usual circumstances of Israel’s siege, but in recent months, it has taken on even more significance. Gaza has been hit particularly hard by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the accompanying jump in prices, especially fuel prices. Under those circumstances, an extra 8,000 Gazans bringing in money from jobs in Israel makes a big difference, as do some other minor measures Israel has taken to slightly ease the draconian economic pressures of its siege. 

Hamas was therefore at a particularly vulnerable point, as it has been unable to even pay the 60% of normal salaries it has been paying to government employees since 2013. Israel capitalized on this situation, and convinced Hamas to stay out of the recent operations. But as is Israel’s habit when it sees a pressure tactic working, it pushes to see how much it can get. 

In this context, the already cynical words of temporary Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid take on a new meaning. After the ceasefire took hold, Lapid sent a message to the people of Gaza. “I want to turn from here to the residents of Gaza and tell them: There is also another way. We know how to protect ourselves from anyone who threatens us, but we also know how to provide work, livelihood, and a life of dignity to anyone who wants to live in peace by our side,” Lapid said. “There is another way to live. The path of the Abraham Accords, of the Negev Summit, of innovation and economy, of regional development and joint projects. The choice is yours. Your future depends on you.”

It’s hard to believe that Lapid thought these words would convince Palestinians to give up their resistance to Israel’s dispossession of their lands, let alone the occupation and the siege of Gaza. 

Clearly, he meant them for the Israeli and global public. Lapid is trying to differentiate himself from Benjamin Netanyahu and present himself as a resolute warrior who also extends his hand. But the more subtle message was for Hamas. He was telling them that if they continue to stay in line, they will receive more crumbs from Israel’s banquet table. 

This is reinforced by his mention not only of the Abraham Accords but also the Negev Summit, a more explicitly military conference. There are no empty promises here, as there were in Joe Biden’s ceasefire statement, where he repeated his mantra of Palestinians and Israelis receiving “equal measures of freedom, prosperity, and democracy.” The model Lapid offers is that of Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, or Bahrain: dictatorships whose populations are overwhelmingly opposed to their leadership abandoning the Palestinian cause but helpless to do anything about it, not even to protest as they have in the past.

Even if Palestinians pay little attention to Lapid’s words, that same message came through loud and clear, particularly when Israel refused to back away from their attack even when PIJ didn’t initially respond. It’s the message sent by forcing Hamas to stay mostly silent. 

Much speculation has centered around the upcoming Israeli elections as the prime motivating factor for Lapid’s insistence on attacking Gaza now. No doubt, this was a major part of Lapid’s and Defense Minister Benny Gantz’s thinking, as both men are vying to become Israel’s next prime minister in November. But it may also be a case of “be careful what you wish for.”

While killing Palestinians in Gaza does tend to help in Israeli elections, it may be a pyrrhic victory for Lapid and Gantz. Certainly, the operation gave them the kind of boost in the public eye that they expected, and it helps stave off the argument from Benjamin Netanyahu, who is certain to lead the biggest party in the next Knesset that he is the “man for security,” it may well cost Gantz and Lapid in terms of voter turnout.

Knesset seats are apportioned based on the percentage of votes out of total votes cast. According to Israeli pollster Dahlia Scheindlin, in the 2021 election, voter turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel plunged, leading to the total portion of the vote going to right wing parties to more closely reflect the view of the Jewish population of Israel, some 58%. The latest polls indicate that the Israeli Jewish population has moved even further right, including sizeable support for Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Kahanist Religious Zionist party. 

Scheindlin says, “If large portions of Arab citizens stay home in November, Israel could easily have 70-75 right-wing seats,” which, given that the largely Palestinian Joint List will likely get half a dozen or so seats will mean a government that is not likely to want Gantz or Lapid to be its leader. 

For Palestinians, this doesn’t make that much difference. Whoever is in power in Israel, the occupation and the apartheid regime continue to tighten, with certain crumbs being given to Palestinians depending on Israel’s strategic assessment of the moment. But the Netanyahu years proved a boon for efforts abroad to build solidarity with the Palestinian people, even if the results in policy have been frustratingly lacking. 

The sort of far-right government that includes Ben-Gvir and would likely be led by Netanyahu, who just cleansed his opponents in the Likud primary, will continue and even augment the momentum we have seen in U.S. politics, particularly in the Democratic party and many of the more progressive groups. It is a small light in all this darkness. 

The Gaza operation could only be excused by Democrats as “Israel having the right to self-defense” by willfully ignoring how hard Israel worked to provoke a conflict and when provocation failed, they simply attacked anyway, absurdly calling it a “pre-emptive strike.” The fact that less support than usual was voiced for it shows that American politicians were not eager to draw attention to the brutality they were supporting. 

Israel’s effort to squeeze Hamas is not likely to succeed over the long term, simply because for Hamas to do what it just did too often would rob it of its ability to offer an alternative to the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah, without which its reason for existing as a political, rather than a revolutionary force disappears. All of this amounts to Israel running out of options, even while it makes normalization deals with dictatorships and celebrates its self-identified “Zionist President of the United States.” The choices they’re making are encouraging more and more popular opposition around the world.