The Shift: Hamas calls Trump’s bluff

The Gaza ceasefire was cause for celebration, but no one believed that issues would not develop across the coming weeks.

At the time it was unclear what Trump had promised Netanyahu, whether Israel would abide by the agreement, how the U.S. would proceed, and how the surrounding Arab countries might factor in.

We are rapidly learning the answers to some of these questions.

As soon as the deal was inked, Trump began telling reporters that he didn’t expect it to hold. He became one of the only Republicans to acknowledge the destruction in Gaza, but that recognition gave way to an imperial twist: he had designs to take Gaza over and displace Palestinians from their homes. He envisioned condos on the water, as he’s wont to do. Where would the Palestinians go? Maybe Egypt or Jordan.

Trump’s comments seemed to contradict statements made by fellow Republicans and some members of his administration, but he continued to double down. Then he generated more concerns by threatening to blow the ceasefire up himself.

That threat came in response to the release of Israeli hostages by Hamas.

“They are emaciated,” declared the President. “They look like Holocaust survivors. So I don’t want to do two, and then we do another two in another week, and then we do four in three weeks now. No, no, they either have them out by Saturday at 12:00 or all bets are off.”

“Let all hell break loose; Israel can override it,” he told reporters, referring to the ceasefire.

Trump’s ominous comments were obviously worth attention, but the mainstream media largely missed the surrounding story. This phase of the ceasefire had already hit a snag. Not because of Hamas, but because Israel had (once again) failed to abide by the agreement.

First, Netanyahu ignored the ceasefire talk deadline to meet with Trump at The White House. Then Abu Obeida, a spokesperson for Hamas’s military wing, said Israel had blocked Palestinians from returning to northern Gaza, prohibited humanitarian aid from being let in, and attacked civilians. More hostages would be released, said Obeida, if Israel “complies and compensates for the past weeks.”

In the short term it seems like Israel is complying.

“Thousands of tents and caravans have entered Gaza,” tweeted Palestinian journalist Abubaker Abed on Wednesday. “The situation is becoming more stable, and aid has been flowing in consistently over the past hours.”

“The same is true in terms of medical aid as local reports indicate that at least five medical aid trucks have gotten into Gaza during the last 24 hours,” he continued. “The ceasefire will likely hold as Hamas gears up to release the three Israeli prisoners on Saturday in exchange for dozens of Palestinian hostages. Israel is beginning to allow a surge of aid instead of a trickle.”

“Looks like Hamas called Netanyahu and Trump’s bluff and won,” observed Electronic Intifada‘s Asa Winstanley.

“It seems the Israeli-Palestinian exchange of captives that had been scheduled for this weekend but was suspended by Hamas this past Monday is now back on track,” said analyst Mouin Rabbani in a Twitter thread explaining the developments. “What happened? The short answer: Israel’s prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, caved.”

“In addition to Hamas’s refusal to roll over and play dead, there is most likely a combination of factors at work,” he continued. “Trump’s histrionics notwithstanding, it’s entirely clear a decision was taken in Washington that the agreement should not be derailed at this time, and that for it to continue Israel needed to fulfill more of its obligations.”

Despite these facts, you can expect Trump to declare a definitive U.S. victory here. The fictional narrative writes itself. Trump demanded Hamas release more prisoners and they did. His base will dutifully buy it, in much the same way they bought the idea that the U.S. had bullied Canada and Mexico into accepting his tariff plan.

There’s always debate about how much actual method there is to Trump’s madness. Does he simply spew nonsense off the cuff, or is every outlandish claim part of a wider strategy to make his actual plans more palatable?

It probably changes from issue to issue, but it’s worth noting that he publicly disregarded his idea about withholding aid as soon as he met with Jordan’s King Abdullah II. Shortly after that meeting, Jordan and Egypt publicly rejected the idea of the displacement of Palestinians and said they wanted the region reconstructed without the ethnic cleansing.

Trump also released a video addressing the people of Jordan, where he insists that King Abdullah is “a tremendous man ” and “one of the true great leaders of the world.”

This seemed like obvious damage control, as Trump publicly embarrassed Abdullah by droning on about his Gaza plan while sitting right next to him. Another backtrack that won’t be cited in Washington’s official version of events.

New Poll

This week Economist/YouGov released a series of polls and there’s some very interesting information on U.S. attitudes towards Israel/Palestine.

The surveys reveal that Americans are more supportive of the Palestinians than at anytime since at least 2017.

The pollsters note that the shift is mainly driven by Democratic voters. 35% of them sympathize with the Palestinians and just 9% with the Israelis.

“In the seven-year history of Economist / YouGov polling on this question, Democratic sympathies for the Palestinians have never been this high relative to the share of Democrats who say they sympathize about equally with both sides, which has tended to be the largest group of Democrats,” the report’s authors note.

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the poll is how thoroughly support for Israel has eroded since the October 7 attack. 34% of Democrats sympathized more with the Israelis in the immediate aftermath of the attack, while just 16% of them sympathized with Palestinians at the time.

What do Americans think of Trump’s plan to displace Palestinians from Gaza? 44% oppose it and just 21% support it. Interestingly, about one-third of Americans agree think that displacing the population would amount to genocide.

We’ve seen many polls like this in recent years, but this one demonstrates how the assault on Gaza has only strengthened support for Palestinians among the American people. Obviously, there remains a massive disconnect between these sentiments and the actions of most Democratic lawmakers, but there’s no debate about where the base lands nowadays. Groups like AIPAC and DMFI might insist that being pro-Israel is good politics, but the numbers show that’s simply not true.

In a somewhat related note, Senators Tim Kaine (D-VA), Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), Dick Durbin (D-IL), Jon Ossoff (D-GA), Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), Rev. Raphael Warnock (D-GA), Peter Welch (D-VT), and Ron Wyden (D-OR) recently introduced a resolution condemning a potential U.S. takeover of Gaza.

It’s important to remember that these (rare) efforts from Democrats reflect the position of their voters.

Odds & Ends

🗺️ Trump says Palestinians won’t be able to return to Gaza under his plan

🧑‍⚖️ Princeton students head to trial nearly a year after Gaza encampment

🇮🇱 The Gaza ceasefire may be falling apart. The real culprit is Israel.

🇵🇸 Breaking down Trump’s executive order targeting Palestine activists

🇺🇸 The Baffler: Grist of Empire

🏫 The Nation: Universities Have Been Doing Trump’s Work for Him

💬 Counterpunch: The Palestine Exception to Free Speech is Un-American

🐘 Responsible Statecraft: Trump signals death knell of two-state solution

🏈 USA Today: Super Bowl halftime performer ‘banned for life’ from NFL events after waving flags in protest

🇯🇴 Responsible Statecraft: Jordan’s Abdullah at White House, looking down the barrel of a gun

🚫 Pittsburgh Jewish Chronicle: City Council passes anti-BDS legislation

⛔ Jerusalem Post: Kansas education bill applies IHRA standard for antisemitism

🤝 Axios: Netanyahu sees Trump’s Gaza gambits as Israel’s big chance

📒 Jewish Insider: Scott, Rosen reintroduce Antisemitism Awareness Act in the Senate

Statement from Jenna Leventoff, senior policy counsel at the ACLU, about the reintroduction:

“Addressing rising antisemitism is critically important, but sacrificing our free speech rights is not the way to solve that problem. Enshrining the IHRA definition of antisemitism into law will chill political debate on campuses because it conflates antisemitic harassment with protected political speech. Congress must halt this dangerous and misguided bill.”

New York Times: Gabbard Sworn In as Top Intelligence Official